Regardless of the jury's verdict.....

I have come to the conclusion that all my childhood heros are/were cheaters. And that makes me very sad.

CBHFM Fantasy Baseball Pool

It's about that time.....

Fantasy season is upon us. Who doesn't love it? It gives you a damn good reason to pour over the boxscores every morning guilt free. The only down side - if you can even call it that - is that the baseball season is very long compared to other sports and some managers tend to lose interest which in turn ruins the league for everyone. That and the obvious "help your buddy out" one sided trades.

A while back, my buddy at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum called me and made it known that he was interested in starting up a fantasy pool. I told him two things. One: keep it cheap and simple. Two: offer unique prizes. 

That phone call was over 4 years ago.

Please take a moment and check out the 2011 edition. It's only 10 bucks to join and this years first prize is pretty kick ass. The thing I like most about this pool is the near zero maintenance. Simply pick your players and wait for the e-mail updates every week.

Just for fun, I had my guy go over the results from the previous years pools. Check out the head to head results. Even with the shit stain I put up last year, I am still ahead and I'm hungry for another top 5 finish in 2011.

Me: 

2007: 19

2008: 36

2009: 5

2010: 82

For an average of 36th place

Him: 

2007: 47

2008: 33

2009: 30

2010: 53

For an average of 41st place

His boss:

2007: 74

2008: 142

2009: 108

2010: 38

For an average of 91st place

Brandon Morrow Pitched Like A Man

I decided a while back that I would not post anything fantasy baseball related due to the fact that I'm pretty sure you don't give a shit.  Occasionally when something happens to one of my teams that is Blue Jay related, I mention it.

For The Record: 

I am in 4 pools.

• A CBS AL only big money league, which is my primary focus due to the $ involved
• a ESPN mixed league battle of the blogs
• the Canadian baseball Hall of Fame yearly classic
• a Yahoo mixed league head to head Blue Jays fan challenge

I enjoy fantasy baseball for various reasons.  Above all, it provides me with up to date info on what is going on around the Majors.  I have been playing for a few years now and always in the roto 5X5 format.  This year I decided to try head to head.

The Battle:

Last week it was me, Team Balco vs. The Blue Jay Hunter, who happens to be the league commish.  We are both very much in contention for a playoff berth.  Based on the fact that I drafted last in the 20 team league and my 2 top picks were Ian Kinsler and Jacoby Ellsbury, both of who have spent a lot of time on the DL, I am happy with my position in the standings.

We both came into week 18 with similar records, albeit in different divisions.

Team Balco: 99 - 88 - 17 representing the Best of the West
The Blue Jay Hunter: 99 - 96 - 9 representing the Beasts of the East

To get the match started off right, I sent him this message:

August 2, 6:22 am

I am going to eat your heart

He didn't reply, probably because he knew deep down that I was right.  That or he didn't see it.....

Early on in the week, I jumped out to a huge lead and had visions of a 12 - 0 skunk.  By mid week, his pitching staff had closed the gap.  Heading into Sunday, I needed a big day from both Jonathan Sanchez and waiver wire pick up Brandon Morrow.  I took a chance on him, way back on June 5th when he was 4 - 4 with an ERA of 6.00

Well Sanchez stunk it up but Morrow came through for me BIG TIME.

9 IP 0 ER 1 HIT 2BB 17 K 1QS

He took a no hitter into the 9th inning, losing it only to a opposite field seeing eye single which Aaron Hill was able to get a glove on.  Say what you will about the official scoring on that particular play but I thought our boys played like an All Star team defensively yesterday.  That catch Vernon made in center, considering the circumstances, was top notch.  He sacrificed his body for his pitcher and that kinda stuff goes a long way in solidifying his place as leader of this young team.

After it was all said and done, I was victorious to the tune of an 8 - 3 - 1 score.  Morrow's performance gave me a half point in the wins category and a full point in ERA, WHIP and strike outs.  The K's category was a nail biter, with me pulling it out by a narrow 2 strike out margin.

Currently I am in 7th place, a half game back of the boys @ Mop-Up Duty.  Top 8 make it to the playoffs.  If I do end up getting to the promise land than I think it's fair to say that Brandon Morrow's gem will be the TSN turning point in my fantasy baseball season.

Saturday Pick Me Up

Easy reading post for y'all.  Straight rip from my CBS Sports fantasy news wire.


Lind could turn it on in 2nd half: Toronto OF Adam Lind still showcased the power with 12 homers and 40 RBI but his .214 first-half batting average was the lowest of his career. Luckily for Lind, he's historically been a far superior hitter after the All-Star break with a career batting average of .300. Lind hit .303 after the break last year with 16 homers and 55 RBI and has never hit worse than .273 in the second half.
(Updated 07/14/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Lind might already be getting hot as he entered the break 10 for 32 (.313) in July thus far with three homers. Lind finished 2009 with 35 homers and 114 RBI and we lauded him as a top 10 Fantasy outfielder to begin the season. He's been anything but a top 10 outfielder this season but certainly has the ability to find his stroke entering the second half. Fantasy owners have started him in mixed Fantasy leagues pretty much all year so there is no reason to stop now when the splits say he's in for a solid second half. (Updated 07/14/2010).

Encarnacion a second-half guy: Toronto 3B Edwin Encarnacion finished the first half of the season with hits in six of his final seven games. He batted .346 over that span with a homer and has gained back his starting job at third. Encarnacion hit .221 overall in the first half, which is actually over 50 percentage points higher than his average heading into the break last year. He came back to hit .251 with 11 homers and 30 RBI in the second half last season.
(Updated 07/14/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Encarnacion is a better hitter in the second half for his career and that was supremely evidenced last season. He hasn't had fewer than 10 second-half homers in each of his last three seasons and is averaging 10 second-half homers per year over his last five years. Encarnacion should keep the power coming with regular at-bats in the second half and can see Fantasy use in some deeper mixed leagues. (Updated 07/14/2010).

Quickly:
 
Speaking of fantasy baseball, I should mention I literally put my money where my mouth is and picked up Yunel Escobar in my AL only, big money keeper league.  I know I overpaid for him at 21 bucks, that's 21 REAL dollars, and don't know if I will or will not keep him at that price but it simply boils down to this for me:  

I believe in Esco

And Team Balco is in 3rd place and needs the OBP desperately.....

Weekly Round Up : Mar. 22 - 28

Please consider this your required reading for the week.

Courtesy of King Bastian:

JAYS TRIM ROSTER: Early on Sunday morning, the Blue Jays parted ways with Joey Gathright, releasing the veteran outfielder. Gathright was hitting .167 this spring and said on Saturday that he was willing to accept a Minor League assignment.
"You kind of expect something bad to happen, but not this," Gathright said "But, I can understand where the team is coming from. I had a very, very bad spring hitting wise. You've got to do what you've got to do. A lot of guys are having good springs, so you've got to give those guys opportunity."
Anthopoulos said it did not seem fair to Gathright to send him to Triple-A, considering a few other outfielders had passed him on the organizational depth chart. The GM said Gathright would've been fourth or fifth in line for a potential promotion. Beyond Gathright and Emaus, the Jays also reassigned outfielder Chris Lubanski to Minor League camp.
The Jays now have 33 players remaining in camp. Eight cuts to go.

There are only three days left to get your vote in for the first ever 25 Man Roster Challenge.  You can find our picks in the right hand margin at the top.  I think it's fair to say that none of us saw this one coming as we all had Gathright on our lists.....

Courtesy of Ken Rosenthal @ FOX Sports:

One way or another, the Jays will turn Frasor and Downs into younger pieces as they continue rebuilding. The team’s look is changing rapidly; by this time next season, Brett Wallace could be at first base, Adeinis Hechevarria at shortstop, J.P. Arencibia at catcher.
Wallace was part of the four-team Roy Halladay trade. Hechevarria is a highly regarded Cuban defector. Arencibia, the team’s first-round pick in 2007, is coming off a big spring.
The idea is to keep adding quality young parts. The Jays, if they trade Frasor and Downs, will not settle for fringe prospects in return.

Kenny getting paid to state the obvious.  Jason Frasor was named the closer this week.  Got him for a buck in my AL only fantasy league and just picked him up off the waiver wire in a mixed roto league!  Hope he gets Team BALCO a few saves before he is traded.

Courtesy of Fan Graphs:

Shawn Camp has picked up a change-up to go with his fastball and slider combination. Camp did more than pick the pitch up; he threw it over 30% of the time in 2009. That story is eerily similar to Brandon League’s 2009. Although unlike League, Camp’s fastball doesn’t touch 94 MPH in a hurricane. Instead it sits around 88, and Camp relies on mixing speeds more than the baker man. Camp actually worked in higher leveraged situations on average than League did last season while missing a career high percentage of bats. What makes Camp intriguing besides his (presumably) lower trade return and modest salary just over a million dollars? He’s a groundball machine (56% career) and devours righties (career 3.05 K/BB ratio against them). Any pitcher who can survive in the American League East is worthy of a look-see, and a transition into the American or National League Central would almost certainly improve his numbers, albeit on a marginal level.

Shawn Camp is in a key figure in the 12 Man Pitching Staff Battle Royal.  My view is he gets a job in the bullpen for a few reasons:

• He is out of options
• The Cito has confidence in him to get right handed hitters out
• His ability to throw more than one inning effectively

Courtesy of The Detroit News:

Casey Fien said. "This game can be cruel sometimes. Nobody gave me any answers. I asked the Jays why and they told me I was a liability.  A liability? I haven't thrown to a hitter all spring. It's been like a twilight zone, a nightmare. Nobody gave me a chance. That's the first time I'd ever thought of quitting baseball."

Interesting quote.  Wonder who said it to him?

Courtesy of Deadspin:

2. His real name is Clarence Gaston, and it's actually how the name appears on his early baseball cards. He took the name "Cito" because he was a fan of a lucha libre wrestler with that name while growing up in Corpus Christi, Texas.

Our lame duck field manager took the name of a fucking Mexican wrestler?  Wow.  Just wow.  Nice to see fellow Blue Jays blogger Ghost Runner on First getting a shout out at the bottom of this post.  Drew and the boys are rock solid.

Courtesy of Bob Elliot @ Toronto Sun:

Roy Halladay could always draw a crowd. Halladay and the Philadelphia Phillies are scheduled to be at the Rogers Centre for a three-game series June 25-27, but Major League Baseball is looking at re-arranging the schedule — a day-night doubleheader perhaps — according to industry sources.
It’s not that Halladay will bring a legion of fans to the Rogers Centre as the Jays plan to honour him, but rather a conflict with the annual G-20 Summit set for the same weekend.
While the summit attracts presidents and prime ministers from around the world, it also attracts protestors and heightened security. The nearby (Metro) Toronto Convention Centre is hosting the event.
The teams could play a day-night doubleheader on Saturday and allow the Phillies to leave early, or the three-game series and the one before it could be pushed ahead a day.
The St. Louis Cardinals, who visit Toronto on June 22-24, and the Cleveland Indians, who are in Philadelphia the same dates, could play a day early. All four clubs have June 21 off.

The much anticipated weekend series is entering full blown clusterfuck status.  As mentioned in the weekly round up two weeks ago, we got a double dip coming our way!  I have ordered tickets for all three games and can't wait to see how this thing is going to work itself out.  I spoke to an old colleague, who works in the MTCC, and he informed me that the G20 will be taking place in the south building.  The entrance to that building is off Bremner Blvd and the bulk of the meetings will take place 300 or so feet below ground level.

CBHF Fantasy Pool

Fantasy baseball is in full swing.  By now, you must have had your draft(s) or are getting pretty darn close.  I myself have already taken part in one snake draft, am still trying to fill out my team in a slow auction which started over a week ago and have another auction draft party this Saturday in my big money AL only league.  I actually had so many teams going that I had to back out of one league.  Hey, I gave over a weeks notice.  Nothing worse than fucking over the league by quitting half way through a draft.....cough (websoulsurfer) cough

With each league comes a different set of rules.  I got mixed head to head leagues, standard 5 X 5 roto leagues, AL only keeper leagues.  It's sometimes hard to keep it all separate.  I follow all the games, read all the boxscores and keep up with the players as best I can but I must say my knowledge of NL baseball is not as in depth as the AL.  My team I cheer for plays there.  I do have a few guys on my advisory committee who are NL guys.  I lean on them heavily this time of year.  What am I suppose to do, watch ALL the games in baseball?  I would love to but need to stay employed, eat, sleep and occasionally bathe.

About four years ago my good friend and inside scoop guy who works at The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame in St. Marys called.  You see, me and this guy talk on the telephone about baseball.  While he is at work.  It's in his job description.  I'm totally jealous.  Anyways, we normally end up talking about the Blue Jays but occasionally he or I have something specific to discuss.  That day four years ago he did.  And it was fantasy baseball.  His boss had given the green light to a fundraiser fantasy baseball pool and he was lost.  He had no idea what to do and wanted me to consult.  I told him I wanted to be paid.  He said no.  I told him fine, then I want to have a title.  He asked what is was and after some thought I came back with: Senior Fantasy Adviser/Advisor to The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.  He wisely agreed, although I never did get those business cards.....I proceeded to offer him a few observations I had made over the years of playing fantasy baseball.  They are as follows:

1. Keep it simple
2. Keep it cheap    
3. Offer prizes that people can't easily get.

So from there we basically created the pool from scratch.  Four years later, we need your help.

It's only ten bucks and the thing I really like about it is you only have to select your players once.  No daily transactions.  You just hope that your guys avoid injury.  Last year I finished 4th or 5th and ended up walking away with an authentic Expos hat and a signed Fergie Jenkins baseball with certificate of authenticity.  Not a bad haul.

I also really like that the scoring categories and their values are unique.  Complete games are rewarded greatly as well as triples.

Fantasy Baseball Form Click Here

Fill it out and send it back.  Deadline is March 31st at midnight.  Plenty of time to get it in.  For all you out of towners, I will buy the Jays tickets off you if you win and can't go.

Fantasy Baseball Pools

I got into fantasy baseball about 4 years ago.  Up until then I had resisted because I was worried about what it would do to my personal life.  I started slow.  A mixed league roto with a snake draft and unlimited transactions for next to no money.  It was fun, I finished 3rd in my first year and 2nd in my second.  Learned a lot about the format and what to look for in players.   Last year the commissioner and his side kick vetoed a trade I made when I was in third place, the first veto in the four years I had been playing in that league.  Guess who was in first and second place at the time.....needless to say I am not participating again this year.

Two seasons ago, a good friend of mine asked me to play in his league.  It was AL only 12 team keeper league with an auction draft.  The other owners are very good players and really stay on top of things.  This league is much more competitive and last year the winner took home over 2 grand.  I have not finished in the money yet.  This is year three of "the plan" and I get to keep 8 players on Team BALCO.  By my account I have 13 potential candidates.  I decided to seek some advice from the experts.....

Another Keeper Question to Ponder…

Feb 17th, 2010 by Ivar Anderson

Today, Dick(that's me) needs some help determining who to keep on his team. The question he poses is:

League size: 12 teams
League format: Roto
League stats: 5 X 5 OBP, HR, R, RBI, SB / W, S, WHIP, ERA, K
League draft: Auction
Roster size: 9 pitchers, two catchers, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, 5 OF, DH, 4 reserve spots
Keepers: 8 total
Special rules: $3 per transaction, AL only

Keepers / salary / contract status

Jorge Posada C / $13 / 2 years left
Adam Lind OF / $1 / 1 year left
Juan Rivera OF / $1 / 2 years left
Alexei Ramirez SS / $8 / 1 year left
Brandon Wood 3B / $1 / 1 year left
Edwin Encarncion 3B / $3 / 2 years left
King Felix / $29 / 2 years left
David Price / $1 / 1 year left
Justin Duchscherer / $1 / 1 year left
Armando Gallarraga / $1 / 1 year left
Bobby Jenks / $21 / 2 years left
Jason Frasor / $1 / 2 years left
Scott Downs / $8 / 2 years left

Lind, Rivera, Ramirez, Price for 11 bucks total are no brainers to me. I like Posada and King Felix as well. Two spots open max 4. Interested in hearing your thoughts.
I want to keep a closer but Jenks for 21 may be draftable at that salary. I would prefer not not keep either of the Toronto closer candidates due to the uncertainty surrounding the role. Throw in Gregg and the fact that the Jays are going to suck and not have many opportunities…..
I like the thought of keeping a cheap 3B, but Wood will have to fight for his playing time and EE is coming off wrist surgery. Tough to make a call there.
Cheap SP arms are always welcome. Will Gallarraga bounce back? Will he even start for Detroit? Duch didn’t throw at all last year and I just don’t know about keeping him. I like the fact he pitches in a big park and the AL west may be a bit weaker with LAA taking a step back. But the Mariners are loading up.
Still trying to pick up some cheap OF speed, but difficult to get my hands on. Spring Training may answer some of my questions. Draft day is March 27th so I got a bit of time.

 Answer:

Whew, that’s a lot of detail, but I needed a bit more information to properly answer Dick, which he supplied.
Lind, King Felix and Price are the three that jump out at me. I realize Hernandez is expensive, but having a top 5 SP for the next two years cannot be passed up. Price at $1 is too great a value to let slip, and Lind is exactly the same. Rivera for the next two years that cheap cannot be let go, either.
Time to eliminate some choices. The situation in Toronto for Downs and Frasor became muddied when Gregg signed on. That bullpen is too crowded for my liking, and with neither pitcher having a set role, I would avoid both, especially since there are no points given for holds. Jenks is too costly, I just think you can get another closer for the same price or less in the draft. I’ve been watching Gallarraga in Detroit for a couple of years now, and see him as a SP5 on a fantasy squad at best.
Since the draft is at the end of March, I would wait to decide on Ducscherer. What I’ve read so far is positive, and if he’s fully recovered, I take him as my 5th keeper. He’s not a strikeout pitcher, but the rest of the peripherals are there to be enjoyed.
Ramirez at $8 is well worth the cost. It is entirely possible that you could find a similar SS in the draft for a comparable cost, but then again, depending on your league members, I would expect that the price of a SS that gives you 80 R/20 HR/80 RBI/15 SB/.280-.290 would be something about double what Alexei costs you here.
Of the two 3B, I don’t trust either of them, but I’ve been burned by Encarnacion for the past couple of years and he’s a risk with his surgery, as noted. Wood is finally getting his chance to play with Figgins moving on to Seattle, and I’d expect him to hold the position unless he has a total meltdown in spring training. At a buck, he is worth taking a chance on, again like with Ducscherer, if you can hold off on making a decision until you see what shakes out this spring, you would be well served.
That leaves us with Posada. My hatred for catchers is legendary, but I do believe you can get another couple of years out of Posada, and at $13, he’s not overly expensive for an AL-only league. If you agree that Posada is a top 5 catcher in the AL, then it is next to impossible to let him go back into the draft.
Thus, I suggest the following be kept on this team:

• Jorge Posada C / $13 / 2 years left
• Adam Lind OF / $1 / 1 year left
• Juan Rivera OF / $1 / 2 years left
• Alexei Ramirez SS / $8 / 1 year left
• Brandon Wood 3B / $1 / 1 year left
• King Felix / $29 / 2 years left
• David Price / $1 / 1 year left
• Justin Duchscherer / $1 / 1 year left

If Ducscherer doesn’t look good in the spring, then I would swap in whichever of the Toronto RPs you think has the best chance to close. I like Frasor at this early stage, and I like his cost, but it is really about who has the best chance to shut down games.  These 8 players will cost you $55 of your total budget, leaving you $205 to spend on the remaining 19 roster spots. That should be sufficient to build a competitive team, assuming you can snag a couple $1 sleepers.
Good luck this fantasy season, Dick, and remember to keep coming back to read our fantasy goodness.

 
If you have a fantasy keeper question, I highly suggest you send it over to the team at Fantasy Game Day.  They got back to me quickly and provided some follow up.  To get in touch with them click here.

A good friend of mine and regular commenter on this blog got me in touch with his former roommate who happens to the content manager over at FantasyBaseball.com.  After a brief introduction, I decided to ask him the same question.  He came back with this:

I actually think you should keep most of your guys.  I'll put my comments under each one....
Jorge Posada C / $13 / 2 years left
I don't love Posada but AL-Only catcher are hard to find so you must keep him.
Adam Lind OF / $1 / 1 year left
Your easiest call to keep.
Juan Rivera OF / $1 / 2 years left
For sure - he is worth $10+ in your format.
Alexei Ramirez SS / $8 / 1 year left
Also an easy call to keep.
Brandon Wood 3B / $1 / 1 year left
Also an easy call to keep.  He is worth a dollar in deep mixed leagues this year.  He won't help your average but he is getting first crack at the 3B job for them and could hit 20 home runs,
Edwin Encarncion 3B / $3 / 2 years left
He is an easy "yes" too.  I know you have concerns about the wrist but the Jays are planning on having him play 3B just about everyday because they have committed Bautista to the OF.  He should hit 20+ home runs this year and that isn't the Jays fans in me talking!  Look at some of his past seasons - the power is there and he is still young.  He would go for way more than this on AL draft day.
King Felix / $29 / 2 years left
Expensive, but you need a stud pitcher in AL-Only IMO. So yes.
David Price / $1 / 1 year left
A steal - possibly a stud soon.  Either way you should get plenty of K's.
Justin Duchscherer / $1 / 1 year left
I say yes.  He is a big risk but the skills are there.  Even if you could get 100 innings for your one dollar you would be getting a good deal from him.
Armando Gallarraga / $1 / 1 year left
I'm going to say no but barely. You already have 3 good starters and I don't think he is very good.  I also think that he could end up in the bullpen again.
Bobby Jenks / $21 / 2 years left
He's not a good deal at this price and is a tough call.  You need a one good closer in AL-Only leagues.  Look at what closers went for in your league last year and how many you think will be available this year.  If you want to email me some of that information I will give you my definitive advice on him.
Jason Frasor / $1 / 2 years left
He is an easy call - keep.  Good one dollar middle relievers are useful in AL-Only leagues.  They keep your ERA and WHIP down, chip in a few wins and vulture saves and because their innings totals are lower they allow stud starters like Hernandez to weigh more heavily on your ERA and WHIP.  Also, he could end up closing.  Don't worry about how bad the Jays could be - there is little correlation between the quality of a team and the quality of their closer.  Teams like the Royals and Pirates have produced some decent save totals over the past decade.  If the Jays haven't picked a closer by your draft day (I think Gregg will win the job but might not keep it all year) then I think you should by Gregg on draft day.  He could come at a discount because no one else can pair him with Frasor. 
Scott Downs / $8 / 2 years left
I would throw him back but consider buying him on draft day.  If he is healthy in spring training, then he is one of the best relievers in the AL.  Look at his numbers from the start of 2007 to the day he hurt his ankle last year - they are amazing.  He was clearly not the same pitcher after the injury but is likely 100% again.  You could get an outstanding ERA, WHIP and a few vulture saves when they want to use a lefty.  If you could get him for $1-3, and Gregg for $15 or so, you could have 3 good TOR relievers for under $20 and you could use at least 2 most weeks.  For all of Toronto's flaws, they have good relief pitching most years.

His final thoughts ended up being this:

Now that I know its 8, here are my picks,

Adam Lind OF / $1 / 1 year left
Juan Rivera OF / $1 / 2 years left
Alexei Ramirez SS / $8 / 1 year left
Brandon Wood 3B / $1 / 1 year left
Edwin Encarncion 3B / $3 / 2 years left
King Felix / $29 / 2 years left
David Price / $1 / 1 year left
Bobby Jenks / $21 / 2 years left

You can roll with 2-3 relievers and still exceed 1000 innings.  I would definitely own Jenks and buy Thornton at the auction- you get all of CHI saves for $23-25.  Hope that Jenks keeps the job all year and you will still get good MR numbers from Thornton.  

I know that you will likely choose to keep Posada and cut Encarnacion or Wood.  I believe Encarnacion will get 500+ at-bats this year as long as Toronto doesn't acquire anyone else, which is very unlikely at this point.  At Posada's age and position, injuries are a definite concern.  I would sooner send a couple bucks on Shoppach, Buck etc.  As for Wood, I don't like his low average but he has lots of power upside, has been a top prospect for years and the Angels seem intent on finally giving him a long leash so that he can break through.  I like to think about profit with keepers - I don't think Posada will give you much more than $13 in production but you could get $10 in production from Wood.

There you have it.  That is fantasy baseball in all it's glory.  The thing I have to say about it is that you inevitably become a BIG fan of certain players over the course of a season.  For 2010, I am thinking that I will be cheering louder for E5 than anybody at the Dome.  If his wrist looks good in spring training, I may end up hanging onto him for 3 bucks.  Token Blue Jay.  Gotta have one.....

I am interested in hearing your opinions on my keepers.  If anyone can provide some insight or even just some random thoughts on the topic, please feel free to do so.

Because clearly I'm not a big enough junkie, I also found the time to help with a fantasy pool for the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.  I still remember when my good friend who works there called and asked me about helping him get it started.  We basically created the pool from scratch and now it is now going into it's forth year.  My title that I sign all e-mails sent to him relating to the pool is:

Senior Fantasy Adviser/Advisor to the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame

Jokes.  Anyways, I finished  4th or 5th last year and ended up walking away with an authentic Expos hat and a signed Fergie Jenkins baseball with certificate of authenticity.  Not a bad haul for the $10 dollar entrance fee.  The thing I like about it is you only have to select your players once.  No transactions.  You just hope that they avoid injury.  I had Jose Reyes at SS, Rickie Weeks at 2B and Vladdy in the OF.  These guys cost me first place for sure last year.  I also really like that the scoring categories and their values are unique.  Complete games are rewarded greatly.

FANTASY BASEBALL FORM CLICK HERE
 

BALL HALL'S FANTASY POOL ADDS NEW CATEGORIES

“I’m ‘gonna repeat” says ‘09 winner Ryan Mullin

St. Marys – The prestigious 4th Annual Baseball Fantasy Pool sponsored by the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame is about to begin, and the reigning champ, Stratford’s Ryan Mullin, is calling his shot!

“I wasn’t lucky last year, I was good, and I’m ‘gonna repeat” boasted Mullin, 28, who will attempt to retain the crown in 2010 and take home the one hundred dollar grand prize and four field level seats to see the Toronto Blue Jays.

The 2010 pool, offering more than one thousand dollars worth of prizes, has a format that is extremely user-friendly. It is a one-page form, and entrants simply choose one player from various groups of five who they feel will perform better than the rest. To make it even easier, next to each player’s name on the entry form is their 2009 point total using the 2010 formula. From there, the fun begins. Should names be checked randomly or, do baseball instincts take over? Did he top out last year? Did he under-achieve? Was he hurt? Was his production up or down due to who hit behind him? Is it his team that makes him good? Does being Canadian matter? Only the entrant can answer those tough questions, but checking out last year’s point total is a good starting point.

A pair of new categories will make the pursuit of bragging rights a tad tougher.

“I think that these will be the toughest categories to pick from because, sure, Dempster had a good year last year, but Bedard, Harden and Francis were all hurt so who knows what will happen in 2010,” said Ball Hall Director of Operations Scott Crawford.

“And speaking of players who were hurt, the ‘Come-backers’ category is very interesting because you have one former Cy Young winner and four former all-stars included”.

“Ball Hall President & CEO Tom Valcke has set his sights a little more modestly than Mullin, having finished in 108th place last year, compared to his 142nd showing in 2008!

Deadline for entry is Wednesday, March 31st, 2010.
Forms can be emailed to baseball@baseballhalloffame.ca, faxed to 519-284-1234, or mailed to CBHFM Fantasy Pool, P.O. Box 1838, St. Marys, ON, N4X 1C2. There is a ten dollar entry fee by cheque (payable to “CBHFM”) or credit card.

If you need a form call 519-284-1838 or email baseball@baseballhalloffame.ca

Over $1000 worth of prizes to be won!  

11 In-season prizes: 

All-Star prize (1st place at time of 2009 All-Star game): 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau autographed ball

Best points/per game average at end of season – autographed ball

Best Month (wins CBHFM hat), Best Week (wins autographed ball), Best Day (wins book) at end of season

The best in the last 30 days! (To be determined on the 30th of each month) – Ernie Whitt autographed induction card

Grand Prizes: 

First place: $100 and four field level jays tickets to one game in 2011

Second place: Autographed baseball bat (you choose from Lasorda, Walker, Fernandez, Gaston, Jenkins, etc….)

Third place: Autographed baseball (you choose from Lasorda, Fernandez, Jenkins, Walker etc…)

Fourth & Fifth place: New Era Major League Baseball hat of your choice

Cost: $10 per entry

Deadline: Wednesday, March 31st at 11:59pm EST.

Weekly Round Up : Feb. 8 - 14

It's been a busy week.  I'm guessing that the American media has now turned their attention to baseball, with the SuperBowl being done and all.  There were a ton of stories that I was unable to get to, which is precisely why I decided to create this weekly feature.  Leading off are two articles about our LL Cool J look alike.  I think there is a good chance he will be on the hill for Opening Day and I look forward to seeing him pitch around 200 innings for us in 2010.

Courtesy of Jordan Bastian:

"Wherever I end up in the rotation doesn't matter to me," Romero said. "I just consider myself as one piece of five guys that make up the rotation, and the five guys that end up making the team are going to be the five guys we go to battle with. I just want to be a leader. I want to be a guy that leads by example.

"Do I consider myself an ace?" Romero said during a phone conversation this week. "Obviously not."

Courtesy of Morgan Campbell @ The Star:

"I'm humbled and hungry, man," Romero said. "I've never gotten complacent and I'm not about to start now. ... There's about 15 other guys that want my job and every one of them is hungry."

Analysis:

Nice to hear the man is not leaving anything up to the element of chance.  I think he is all but guaranteed a spot in the starting rotation and I'm glad his head has not gotten too big.....yet.  I remember he was the first pitcher drafted in 2005.  I'm going to block out the fact that Matt Garza was available and selected 25th.  He was a college guy as well so no excuse by J.P. not selecting him.  Oh well, I like Ricky Romero's music and now Boy Wonder has 69 scouts, so it won't happen again right?

Courtesy of Ed Eagle @ MLB.com

Blue Jays right-hander Scott Richmond's quest to win a spot in Toronto's starting rotation has been sidetracked by a shoulder impingement.  Richmond, 30, went 8-11 with a 5.52 ERA in 27 appearances (24 starts) last season. According to a team release, the injury occurred during his preparations for Spring Training, and he will be "monitored closely throughout his revised throwing program" to rehab the shoulder. 

We here at 1bluejaysway have been collectively shitting on Richmond for a while now.  We love the fact that he is Canadian, but his numbers in the second half of the season indicated he had hit the wall.  Now with this news, I have to think he is a long shot to make the starting rotation.  He will be brought along slowly and may be a candidate for a 15 day DL trip with an extended spring training and "rehab assignment" to begin 2010 along with McGowan.  I  think he has some value as a fifth starter when he's right.  But throwing shoulder injuries in a pitcher is obviously not good, especially when they are not a lock for a job.  I could never bring myself to wish that a player gets hurt with an injury but this news seems to have cleared up some of  the rotation question marks.  Good luck on your recovery Scott.  We wish you well.     

Courtesy of Jordan Bastian:

Please consider this your required reading of the week. Enjoy!

Courtesy of Baseball Musings:

Players A to Z, Edwin Encarnacion

Edwin Encarnacion plays third base for the Toronto Blue Jays. The long time Reds hitter went north in the trade for Scott Rolen. Edwin’s batting stats don’t stand out as great, but they’re certainly not bad. The average American League hitter in 2009 posted a slash line of .267/.336/.428. Encarnacion’s career line comes in at .260/.341/.448. So he’s above average in both OBP and slugging percentage. If your entire team produced those numbers, they’d likely be above average in runs scored.  Unfortunately, Edwin gives a lot of those runs created back on defense. That may hurt Toronto as they try to develop a young pitching staff.  Encarnacion also is coming off a poor offensive season. At seasonal age 27, I would expect him to bounce back from that. He needs to have a very good season with the bat to make up for his glove, otherwise he may not last too long in the majors.

Again, I have to preface this analysis: I have E5 for measly 3 bucks in my AL only, big money fantasy league.  Just the thought of a 3 dollar third basemen getting me 20 + bombs is giving me a semi.  But he had some wrist surgery and I'm hesitant to keep him over other players on my roster.  I will be watching him with great interest this spring training.  What do you guys think he will produce if he's able to get 500 at bats? 
 

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick Griffin @ The Star

Cynical baseball observers ( I guess your talking about ME here Dick ) point to the Yankees and their World Series wins and simply shrug – anyone can spend money to win.  The Bombers bought a championship, after all. Anyone could do the same given the Bronx Bombers' financial resources.  Well, the fact is, that despite becoming the first and only major-league team to spend more than $200 million (all figures U.S.) in 2008 and 2009, it does take some skill to build a World Series roster.  General manager Brian Cashman deserves some credit.

Dick then goes on to take the undisputed worst contracts in all of baseball and concludes:

So that 25-man roster adds up to $252.4 million and would be enough to get any GM fired.  As more GMs study their mistakes, it seems free agency for veterans will no longer be the windfall it originally was intended to be.

Ah, ya Dick it would.  It must be a coincidence that 3 guys on your 25 man roster there, are Blue Jays signed by J.P. and he was fired.  Guess it proves your right.

On more thing Dick, I wonder how many of the players on your overly simplistic, kindergarten level, 25 man roster WERE ACTUALLY free agents?  Because I remember Rios signed a thing called AN EXTENSION buying out his arbitration years and some free agent years.  Wells signed a contract extension as well you fucking idiot.  As always, the comments section of Dick's column is littered with people shitting on the writer.  This time 3 out of the total of 10 comments are less than complimentary.  Nice to see him giving the shout out to Cot's Baseball Contracts although it is too bad he hasn't figured out how to use the link feature on the dreaded computer thingy yet.  

Courtesy of RotoAuthority:

Closer Report: Blue Jays

By Tim Dierkes [February 10, 2010 at 12:10pm CST]

The Blue Jays currently have a three-man competition at closer, with Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, and Scott Downs duking it out.  Gregg is a recent free agent signee, while Frasor and Downs are entering their walk years and are trade candidates.  Since all three pitchers are being drafted in the 26th round or later, Toronto presents a nice fantasy opportunity if you pick right.
Right now all we know is that Gregg signed in part because he'll get a shot at closing, and manager Cito Gaston will make the decision (MLB.com's Jordan Bastian reporting).  According to Mock Draft Central, fantasy owners are currently voting for Downs (311.73), Frasor (323.34), and Gregg (327.29) in that order.
There is reason to believe Downs won't be the guy.  The Toronto Star's Richard Griffin notes that Downs is not the lights-out type for the ninth inning.  That's understandable; Downs is a southpaw who averages about 90 mph on his heater.  Frasor throws harder and he's right-handed.  Downs and Frasor both had better peripherals than Gregg in 2009, though they lack his closing experience.  Of the three, only Downs had a strong groundball rate.
So while you could make a case for any of the three, I'd be surprised to see Downs get the nod with two capable righties also in the mix.  If you're drafting now, take Gregg.  Unlike Frasor, Gregg's not a spring trade candidate.  And I'm guessing Gaston will choose the experienced closer even if Frasor stays.

This is the full article because I got nothing to add.  I do want the 10 minutes of my life it took me to read Dick's mailbag back though.  Bang on analysis by a contributor over at the biblical mlbtraderumors.com.  With this news my fantasy team is now officially fucked.

Courtesy of Big League Stew:

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays: Another one in Tommy John recovery, he missed all of 2009 after being hurt at the end of 2008, but the reports on his elbow are good. He's no Roy Halladay, but Marcum is effective when healthy. General manager Alex Anthopoulos said of Marcum, "There's no restrictions. No limitations at all. He looks great. He's going to come into camp with full guns-a-blazing. We think he's going to be ready to go to pitch, hopefully, a full season for us and have a great year."

What can I say about Marcum?  He's a right handed Jimmy Key.  Needs to be spot on, all the time to be effective.  To his credit on most nights he is good more than he is bad but man, it must be tough trying to get major league hitters out that way.  I hope he comes in and everything feels good.  As important, if not more important than his surgically repaired elbow, will be his head.  It may take a while for his confidence to come back.

Courtesy of Fan Graphs:

Rzepczynski tossed his 88 MPH sinker 55 percent of the time with Toronto, going to his 80 MPH slider a whopping 39 percent and sprinkling in some 82 MPH changeups (six percent).

In 2010, CHONE has Rzepczynski posting a 4.05 FIP, with 8.7 K’s per nine innings and 4.4 BB/9. It’s going to be interesting to see how his punchout rates translate long-term to the majors. Despite not having the archetypal power pitcher’s arsenal, Rzepczynski has deftly avoided lumber at each level of competition. His control needs work, but this lefty’s combination of whiffs and worm burners could make him The Dude to target late on draft day.

I'm liking the thought of this guy in the rotation a little bit more everyday.  He's got an above average groundball rate of 51.2% as mentioned earlier.  Another guy to watch closely this spring.  But due to the fact he has an option year or two to burn, I think he starts the year in AAA and is one of the first guys called up when the situation presents itself.

Courtesy of OK Blitz:

“I’d like to start; I’ll make that known.” Tallet said. “It’s going to be one of those things where I just go into camp and do what they want me to do. That’s all you really can do.”

And if it were up to Tallet, he wouldn’t give Toronto a second chance to question his ability. He plans to be at the Jays’ camp on Feb. 12, nearly a week before the optional reporting date for pitchers.

Wolverine really had a lot to say in this article.  He covered the Halladay / Lee trade from both perspectives.  Good read.  This guy has a spot locked up on the 12 man pitching staff.  I'm just not sure what his role will be at this point.  I think it depends on a lot of things beyond his control.

Courtesy of Razzball:

All right, but you can’t just ignore those 108 RBIs he had last year.  Maybe you can.  He hit behind a career year from Marco Scutaro who had a .379 OBP in 680 plate appearances.  Speaking of which, Aaron Hill had the most plate appearances in the major leagues last year.  Number one.  As in, no one was in front of him number one.  You have to take that many plate appearances with a grain of salt.  In 2010, Hill will be hitting behind who?  John Buck?  Jose Bautista?  Yeah, there goes those RBIs.  People are drafting him around the same time as Justin Morneau (30/100/.290) and Curtis Granderson (30/20)… Okay, different positions.  But how are people drafting him at the same time as Cano’s 90/27/100/.315/5?  Take a 2nd baseman later (Ian Stewart, Scott Sizemore, Kelly Johnson) instead of reaching for Aaron Hill.  He’s overrated.

I was spewing this venom about Aaron Hill in last week's round up comments section.  I did not take it quite as far as this guy but I agree with his message in principal.  Hill will have a great year for a second baseman.  But in 2009 he seemed to have a few things go his way, which contributed to his career high numbers in the following offensive categories:

• Hits
• Home Runs
• Runs
• RBI
• At Bats
• Slugging Percentage
• Stolen Bases  

Can he do it again?  Based on where he is being taken in fantasy drafts, I think most people would say yes.  But I fear this is simply explained by the fact he is eligible at such a weak position and his offensive production is far too tempting to pass on at two bag.

Courtesy of Jordan Bastian's Inbox:

With Spring Training almost here and the Blue Jays in a rebuilding period, who are the organization's top 10 prospects?
-- Nolan F., Peterborough, Ontario
Without the December trade that sent Roy Halladay to the Phillies and the deal last July that sent third baseman Scott Rolen to the Reds, the Blue Jays' top prospects list would look very different than it does right now. With those two moves, Toronto reeled in what I believe to be its top four prospects for the time being.
First on the list, in my opinion, is first baseman Brett Wallace -- one of the players netted in the Halladay swap. He's nearly ready for the big leagues and could have a home in the heart of the Jays' lineup in the near future. Next on my list would be right-hander Kyle Drabek (also added in the Halladay deal), followed by right-hander Zach Stewart (picked up in the Rolen swap).  Drabek and Stewart are unlikely to make the Blue Jays' rotation this spring, but they will be in camp with the rest of the big league starting candidates. The pair of talented righties could see The Show some time this year, but it seems more realistic that Drabek and Stewart could have more of an impact beginning in 2011.  Fourth on my list would be catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who was the third prospect added in the Halladay trade. It appears as though d'Arnaud will open the year at high Class A Dunedin, so he is a few years away from a potential promotion to Toronto. Still, he heads the list of three catchers that make my Top 10 prospects list. Behind d'Arnaud, I'll go with right-hander Chad Jenkins and outfielder Jake Marisnick, who were selected by the Jays in the first and third round, respectively, in the 2009 First-Year Player Draft. I'll round out my list with right-hander Henderson Alvarez, followed by catcher J.P. Arencibia, lefty Tim Collins and catcher Carlos Perez.

  Oh and Happy Valentine's Day Bitches

Back End of the Pen

 
So who gets the saves?

I must start by saying I have a vested interest in this question.  Both of these guys are on my CBS AL only fantasy keeper league team.  But I vow not to let that cloud my judgment.  For the record: I have Jason Frasor for a buck and Scott Downs costs 8.  Today Frasor is owned by 45% of leagues to Downs 33%, not that this means anything.  I will only be keeping one of them for my team.  I do not believe either should be viewed as a long term option for your Toronto Blue Jays going forward.  

But let's look at it more closely with respect to present day.  According to Cot's Baseball Contracts Downs who will be 34 before opening day in 2010 is in the final year of his contract scheduled to make $4 million.  Frasor, will turn 33 during the season, has been tendered a contact and made 1.45 million last year.  He will be in line for a raise of a couple hundred thousand.  Both are free agents in 2011 according to mlbtraderumors.  If they both play well enough this year, they may be eligible for compensation based on the Elias rankings.  Most likely a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the draft (Type B) but maybe, just maybe a first rounder and a sandwich (Type A). It must be assumed that whomever wins the closers role the other will set up.  

2009 seasons stats:

                  INN     W    L     S       K      BB    HITS      ERA      WHIP
Downs   47.7      1     3     9      43     13      46        3.12      1.28
Frasor   57.3      7     3    11     56     16      43        2.50      1.02

Downs made 2 trips to the DL with toe issues in 2009, which is why he only pitched in 48 games last season.  Frasor had a healthy campaign and appeared in 61 games.  Please note that the Elias ranking are based on the previous two seasons statistics.  As such, an emphasis is put on 2009 numbers not just 2010.

Now let's look at their three year averages:

                INN      W    L      S       K       BB    HITS     ERA     WHIP
Downs  58.3      2     3      5      52      21      49       2.26      1.21 
Frasor    54       3     3      5      52      24      42       3.72      1.22

Everything appears to be a push except ERA with Frasor giving up a run and a half more every nine innings.  Over a season this translates to about ten total runs or by my count 3-4 blown saves.  Based on these numbers I conclude that they are effectively the same pitcher.  Obvious difference is Downs is a southpaw and Frasor is a righty.  But since they project to be full inning relievers splits/splits are less relevant.  Based on those numbers, both of them get righties out more anyways?!?!?

Conclusion: 

Downs should be traded.  Either now as a throw in with Overbay, who is also a free agent at the end 2010,  OR more likely at the July 31st deadline next year to a team in need of a left handed reliever.  I believe he has maximum value at the trade deadline as such we would be dealing him from a position of strength.  Should we need to trade him now in order to sweeten the impending Overbay deal, we would still have at least two other southpaws in the pen for the duration of the season, Tallet aka Wolverine and Carlson, unless of course Cito abuses Jesse again.

                                                                                                                            






Yeah I said it.

My unbiased opinion is we should give the ball to Jason Frasor when the game is on the line.  He is younger, cheaper, more durable and is coming off a better year.  He has the best chance to acceive Type A free agent status and therefore help the ballclub the most going forward.  All this AND it only costs Team BALCO a buck for 30+ saves.

Anyone dare disagree?