1 Blue Jays Way: brain trust

Showing posts with label brain trust. Show all posts

2011-12-14

The Blue Jay Rally Call

I'm not even certain that I want the braintrust to win this ridiculously stupid blind auction or not. But hey, what the fuck else are we doing?

2011-11-22

We got new uniforms! Turns out a friend of the site crashed the party and sent over some pics that I thought I would share with you. Personally, I think they look great and I`m somewhat shocked the brain trust got this one right.

Like my dad always use to say: Late is OK but pregnant that's no good.

2011-11-04

The Black Hole

Image courtesy of After Death

So what happens if your Toronto Blue Jays don’t re-sign Type A free agent Mr. Kelly Johnson to play 2B next season?

Since the free agent class this year is.....well.....pretty weak and the farm system can only be described as "noticeably thin" at the position - even that might be too complimentary - we somehow found the initiative to examine all the other rosters in baseball and cherry pick a few potential candidates for his replacement if when the brain trust decides to explore the trade route.

Like Northwood Mortgage, we’re working hard just for you!

A few things to consider:

Most MLB second basemen were either drafted or developed as shortstops. That being said there was absolutely zero chance we were going to look over all the Minor League players in every system, especially the ones below A Ball and try to guess who won’t stick at SS. As such, only players listed as 2B were included.

Whomever is picked up will probably end up hitting 8th or 9th in the order. Therefore it isn't downright essential that an impact player is acquired. That's quite a luxury.

All players in tiers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are currently listed on their team’s 40 man roster while the players in tier 5 are not.

Tier 1: The studs

These players are the young, controllable, high upside type guys that any GM craves. They project as starters right now.

Dustin Ackley 1988/02/26 1st round 2nd pick 2009 Only on this list because you’d call me stupid if he wasn’t. Pretty much untouchable right now. Bat control is fantastic. He will hit in the Majors.

Danny Espinosa 1987/04/25 3rd round 2008 This guy can hit bombs and steal bases at the big league level. Contact? Not so much. Yet.

Neil Walker 1985/09/10 1st round 11th pick 2004 In his first full season he played 159 games. A big body and a big bat to match.

Jose Altuve 1990/05/06 amateur free agent 2007 Clearly rushed up to the big league level but can you really blame them?

Tier 2: The buy low candidates

These guys are still starting on their clubs. For now.

Gordon Beckham 1986/09/16 1st round 8th pick 2008 Pretty much all of his offensive numbers have been in a steady decline since his rookie campaign. Plus defender.

Darwin Barney 1985/11/08 4th round 2007 Never really hit for a lot of power. Pretty much an all around unspectacular player yet still serviceable.

Tier 3: The best of the rest

AKA the Marco Scutaro category

Current back up, platoon or utility men.

Trevor Plouffe 1986/06/15 1st round 20th pick 2004 He hit 15 bombs in less than 200 at bats in the International League (AAA)

Eric Sogard 1986/05/22 2nd round 2007 Walks more than he strikes out. Looks like a doubles machine in waiting.

Jason Donald 1984/09/04 3rd round 2006 Doesn’t look like he will stick at SS too much longer. Good/great contact skill.

Robert Andino 1984/04/25 2nd round 2002 Does everything well and nothing superb. Can still play a legit big league SS. Arb eligible for the first time.

Jed Lowrie 1984/04/17 1st round 45th pick 2005 Lack of production in the Minors leads me to believe he’s a little overrated. Switch hitter who kills lefties. Also arb eligible for the first time.

Sean Rodriguez 1985/04/26 3rd round 2003 Might benefit from playing only one position as opposed to all over the field. Can he hit RHP? It wouldn't hurt to give him the opportunity to find out.

Ryan Raburn 1981/04/17 5th round 2001 Has never really been given a fair chance as an everyday player. Decent pop. Oldest guy in any tier.

Eric Young Jr 1985/05/25 30th round 2003 Only played 43 innings at 2B last year. Can flat out fly on the bases when he somehow manages to get on them.

Jonathan Herrera 1984/11/03 amateur free agent 2002 Is a tad undersized and the power numbers reflect it. Might have some rage issues.

Chris Getz 1983/08/30 4th round 2005 Non tender candidate. No power what so ever.

Tier 4: The 2013/14 type guys

How many option years - if any – these players have left would need to be known prior to completing a trade. Some of these guys might be ready to start in 2012. That was a purposefully vague sentence. A full or even partial year in AAA would probably be beneficial for the player and Super 2 is a bitch.

Alexi Amarista 1989/04/06 amateur free agent 2007 He’s hit at every level in the Minors despite his size. Blocked behind a whole bunch of Scioscia-esqe veterans in LAA.

Steve Lombardozzi 1988/09/20 19th round 2008 Played over 125 games the last three years in a row. Above average speed. Switch hitter.

Logan Forsythe 1987/01/14 1st round 46th pick 2008 Rocked a .445 OBP in the PCL as a 24 year old. Can play a little 3B if need be.

Adrian Cardenas 1987/10/10 1st round 37th pick 2006 Walks almost as much as he strikes out.

DJ LeMahieu 1988/07/13 2nd round 2009 Great contact hitter. Plenty of time for the power to develop from doubles to round trippers.

Ryan Adams 1987/04/21 2nd round 2006 Solid looking power numbers in the Minors Leagues.

Cord Phelps 1987/01/23 3rd round 2008 Made 5 errors in only 75 chances with the glove. The stick looks nice.

Taylor Green 1986/11/02 25th round 2005 This Canadian boy from out West can swing it and take a walk.

Eric Farris 1986/03/03 4th round 2007 Managed a measly .689 OPS in the PCL? Is that even possible?

Harold Garcia 1986/10/25 non drafted free agent 2004 Missed most of 2011 with a knee injury. Never played above AA. Decent bat.

Tommy Field 1987/02/22 24th round 2008 Made the jump from AA to the Majors probably because of his glove. His power looks legit. So do the strike outs.

Ivan De Jesus 1987/01/05 2nd round 2005 Consistent success at every stop in the Minors.

Jeudy Valdez 1989/05/05 non drafted free agent in 2005ish. Played SS all this year and 2B all last year. Shown some decent pop and better wheels. Dominican birth certificate could be a concern. Needs some time in AA but could move fast.

Tier 5: The prospects

We only took our search as far down as High A ball. Had to draw the line somewhere. Feel free to tell us all about the guys we missed.

Henry Rodriguez 1990/02/09 non drafted free agent 2007 Hasn’t posted an average under .300 since 2007. Say what you want about batting average as a stat but that just has to count for something. Never played above the AA level. Great power/speed combo. Switch hitter. Consider him the priority player on this list.

Greg Miclat

Ryan Cavan

Who would you realistically like to see play 2B in a Blue Jays uniform next year?

Do you have your eye on a specific player that we either mentioned or didn't?

2011-08-06

Introducing: The Brain Trust

This one is with AGM Tony LaCava from last month. I was meaning to post it and I got lazy. Can't promise it won't happen again.

This one is really current with the man who if he's not careful will soon only be leaving a lot of voice messages. Perhaps he needs to lose a trade or two. Perhaps he needs to do it on purpose.

And last but certainly not least is one with Pro Scouting Director Perry Minasian. Probably my favorite of the three.

2010-09-09

Breaking News: Insurance Scam In The Making?

So a friend of the site told me a juicy rumour a few days ago. They said that tonight's starting pitcher - Canadian boy RHP Shawn Hill - has an injury in his foot/ankle area that requires surgery. They also said that Shawn was called up to the Majors with the intention of only pitching a bare minimum number of innings. Apparently this has all been pre arranged between him and the brain trust of your Toronto Blue Jays. My source mentioned there are insurance implications.

Naturally, this news got my attention. So I decided to do some research, starting with the Twitter injury guru.

@injuryexpert is there any benefit for either player or team whether a DL trip and surgery happen in MLB vs MILB, in terms of insurance?
@1bluejaysway Yes, mostly the team.
@injuryexpert Thanks for responding. Do you have a link to some articles that explains it for me? Any help would be appreciated.
@1bluejaysway no sorry
@injuryexpert thanks anyways.
@1bluejaysway Writing about insurance issues isn't very popular.

Having my suspicions confirmed, I then proceeded to try to get some info on the topic. And let me tell you, the @injuryexpert was right. There just isn't a lot of people talking about this subject.

What happened next absolutely blew my mind.

I must say that I do not consider myself an expert as it pertains to MLB player transactions. However, I do think I know more than the average fan.

What I was able to find out on the insurance topic COMPLETELY changed my perspective. It feels like I have been enlightened.

Courtesy of Sports Business Daily:

December 2, 2002

"It's become so expensive that it's a cost item we really have to look at when you put your payroll together. If you're going to insure players, you almost have to include that as part of your payroll." Orioles COO Joe Foss said initial coverage now being restricted to the first three years of a player's contract "is going to have an impact on clubs' appetite for the length of contracts." Chass: "The Tom Glavine negotiations could be a case in point." Expos GM Omar Minaya added, "When you're negotiating a contract, the insurance issue comes up more and more, especially now that it's three years. When you take on a guy in a trade, you always ask what's the insurance situation." D'Backs GM Joe Garagiola Jr.: "The companies are more aggressive in trying to exclude conditions from policies. We don't do a lot of policies. Mostly our insuring is confined to pitchers. But our experience is you can have a policy effectively excluded out from under you. You can have a disability policy on a pitcher, and exclusions can cover injuries to his shoulder and elbow"

Courtesy of CBS Money Watch:

March 1, 2006

Major League Baseball found that it pays to take a team approach to purchasing insurance.
Instead of continuing to purchase insurance separately, Major League Baseball and the organization's 30 clubs decided to band together, set up a captive and develop a collective risk management strategy.
The results? Big cost savings, improved loss control and greater sharing of risk management best practices.
Major League Baseball has saved $40 million over the last three years after forming a captive known as MLB BASES, which stands for MLB Burlington Assurance Exchange Society. The captive is domiciled in Vermont and was launched in January 2003.
"Our strategy is simple. It's take high deductibles and use our captive to finance our retentions on a leaguewide basis," says Anthony Avitabile, the director of risk management at Major League Baseball.
Major League Baseball currently uses its captive for its workers' compensation and general liability programs and might use it eventually for some property risks as well.
"We felt our program should be put in place in the areas where every club is going to be purchasing insurance anyway," Avitabile says.

Courtesy of The Biz Of Baseball:

May 10, 2007

The New York Yankees signing of Roger Clemens to a prorated contract that will pay out $18.5 million and change has brought another aspect of player contracts these days: Insuring the player in case of injury.

With guaranteed contracts, clubs may wish to investigate the use of disability insurance for players to cover the losses they may incur, should a player have a debilitating injury that would end a season or career for the player.

The problem is, the rates to insure a player can be extremely high, and thus, clubs have to weigh taking the gamble of going it without insurance, or paying the premiums.

Comments by a spokesman for HCC Specialty Underwriters, one of the major insurers of professional athletes, goes on to say that it would be difficult for an insurer to take on the risk of Clemens due to the amount of salary involved and his age. A recent case that have touched on insuring players was the Astros suing the insurer for Jeff Bagwell who would not pay off their $15.6 million claim on his salary.

Courtesy of Sports Business Daily:

May 13, 2008

But MLB and insurance industry sources indicated that policies "often exclude areas of the body that have been seriously injured before." Also, position players are "less expensive to insure than pitchers." ESPN's Steve Phillips said that two events in '01 "changed the baseball insurance" marketplace: the Orioles received a reported $27.3M claim on the remaining $39M of injured LF Albert Belle's contract, and the World Trade Center attacks on September 11 "precipitated large payouts throughout the insurance industry at large"

Conclusion:

So what does this all mean as it pertains to Shawn Hill and your Toronto Blue Jays? Well, I certainly don't have all the answers right now but this is what I think.

The Blue Jays must have an insurance policy out on Shawn. That policy no doubt excludes his oft injured right arm, elbow and shoulder. If this rumour of his foot/ankle injury is true, then they would be able to recoup some of his salary from the insurance company if he goes under the knife but only for a surgery that is not on an uninsured part of his body.

Thanks to the @injuryexpert, we know that this benefits the team in some way but only if it's done while he is on the Major League roster. It also benefits the player because he incurs service time while he is in the Majors, even if it's on the DL. For the record: Shawn Hill has 3.153 years of MLB service time according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

So I guess everyone wins right?

Quickly:

I couldn't help but start wondering: How often has this happened in the past?

A few names came to me right away:

Jesse Litsch (hip)
Dustin McGowan (knee)

More Quickly:

If Shawn Hill gets pulled early tonight and subsequently goes on the DL with a foot/ankle injury that requires surgery, you heard it here first.

2010-05-17

Really Early Elias Free Agent Rankings

In a much earlier post, I discussed the Elias Free Agent Rankings in detail. Consider it a prerequisite for this post.

MLBTR has put up some "projected" rankings. I'm not sure what formula they used, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of said formula. But it is something and it effects some potential moves for your Toronto Blue Jays moving forward this season.

First we will head over to Cot's Baseball Contracts and get some data on our players contract status. From that I can say that the following players are able to file for free agency in November, 15 days after the World Series ends:

Lyle Overbay
Scott Downs
Jason Frasor
John Buck

The following players have an option that may be exercised for the 2011 campaign.

Kevin Gregg
Jose Molina
Alex Gonzalez

The rest of our boys are under club control next season. Let's not speculate about the options to much because you have to think the only one that will be debated is Kevin Gregg's:

11:$4.5M club option or $8.75M club option for 2011-12 ($0.75M buyout)

I guess the brain trust has to decide if they want to pay him 8.75M over the next two years to help out the back end of the pen. Based on his early performance I have to say that seems reasonable. But there are still 123 games to go and a lot can happen.

Anyways, back to the point. According to the data provided by MLBTR here are the rankings for our actual free agents:

Lyle O for today: 42.222
Scott Downs: 69.887
Jason Frasor: 67.029
John Buck: 58.036

Analysis:

Lyle fucking Overbay is a whopping 18 points away from being a type B free agent. If he doesn't pick it up SUBSTANTIALLY then when he signs with another team we will receive no compensation ie draft pick(s). He may be lucky to get a major league contract offer at this rate. As we learned from the Rod Barajas signing, a major league deal must be inked in order to receive compensation. All hopes of getting a decent prospect in return for this stiff via trade just went out the window. Which begs the following questions:

Why the fuck are we still running him out there everyday and in the five hole no less?
Is The Cito doing a Kevin (scab) Millar circa late 2009 and giving him playing time so he can get a decent contract for another team next year?

John Buck is just barely a type B. Which is good news. He is going to have to keep up the production in order to hold onto that status. If we offered arbitration and he declines the offer, then we could get a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the 2011 Amateur Draft. He is making a tidy 2 million this year. There are no guarantees he declines the arbitration offer which would cockblock our catching prospects for another year.

Scott Downs is a borderline type A free agent which is a double edged sword. We would receive the signing teams first round pick, unless it is protected (top 15) then we receive a second rounder, and a sandwich pick. Most teams do not want to give that much up to sign a reliever especially one that is not a closer. Provided he maintains that status he may get squeezed on the open market. It may end up that we resign him for cheap just before spring training. It would be preferred that he drops a bit in the rankings and becomes a type B. That would make the decision to offer him arbitration much easier.

Jason Frasor is in the upper tier of type B guys. It would be great if he stays that way.

Kevin Gregg is an interesting thought exercise. He is a projected type A and if he keeps mowing down hitters and racking up saves, he will remain that way. Do you decline the options, offer him free agency and then hope he declines? What if he accepts? Do you exercise the options and keep him around through the 2012 season? Or do you trade him and demand a high level prospect in return?

Conclusion:

Type B relievers are the way to go. We can demand a sandwich type prospect in return at the deadline and expect to get it. Travis d'Arnaud was a sandwich pick. Downs and Frasor could net this return. I have to figure that Downs will drop in the rankings and I'm pretty sure he won't get many save opportunities this year in order to ensure it.

If some team wants Buck and is willing to pay that price we have to ship him out. We get nothing for him if he drops out of type B status, which is possible but not likely. I have the feeling he accepts the arbitration offer. No real reason to support that but I think he wants to be here.

Kevin Gregg is the X factor. His free agent status and contract make it very difficult to say what his future will be with the club. I think that if he keeps the type A status then we exercise his options. If he drops to type B, then we decline and offer him arbitration. And if someone offers us something good for him then we trade him.

Alex Gonzalez will be a Blue Jay in 2011. We can talk about him later.

2010-04-26

We Are Not Even Rebuilding, Yet.....

I know it's been a while since I posted "an original".

This topic has been floating through my mind for quite sometime.

re·build

–verb (used with object)

to repair, esp. to dismantle and reassemble with new parts: to rebuild an old car.

to replace, restrengthen, or reinforce: to rebuild an army.

to revise, reshape, or reorganize: to rebuild a shattered career.

–verb (used without object)

to build again or afresh: With the insurance money we can rebuild.

So the line the brain trust has been using to describe the 2010 version of your Toronto Blue Jays in my opinion is bullshit. We are not rebuilding, yet.

If you look at our Opening Day line up this year and compare it to last year, you will notice a downgrade in talent. That is not rebuilding. That is simply plugging holes.

In my mind, a rebuild is when you take a few young players, who clearly have no business playing at the Major League level, and run them out there so that they can get some valuable experience without worrying about the results so much. Think: 2009 pitching staff. Guys like Cecil, Rzep, Mills, Ray, Richmond got experience that will hopefully make them better the next time around.

A few things have to happen before we can call it a rebuild:

Trade Lyle Overbay
Trade Scott Downs
Trade Jason Frasor
Trade Alex Gonzalez
Trade John Buck

These veteran players are useful Major Leaguers. But they are just spare parts on a playoff team. They all will be free agents upon the conclusion of this season except Gonzalez. He has an option that can be picked up.

The problem we have here in Toronto is that we have no one knocking at the door, with the exception of Brett Wallace and J. P. Arencibia. They should be up with this team, right now, in hopes they are able to mature as players. But Boy Wonder is very conscious of their service time as he should be.

So therein lies the rub. We cannot rebuild, yet. We have to run out the vets all season and hope the preform well enough that someone is stupid enough to give us good talent for them in a trade. This will happen close to the trade deadline at the end of July, if at all. There is a possibility that we are forced to keep these players all season and decide whether or not to offer them arbitration in hopes that they decline and we get compensation draft picks for the 2011 Amateur Draft after they sign with a different team via free agency.

This season should be called a transition year. Boy Wonder had very little to start with and he needs some time to get the talent required to rebuild. He has shown the ability so far to trade for those types of players. Brandon Morrow comes to mind.

Looking Forward:

We, the people, need to keep it in perspective. We are not a good team and I doubt that will change anytime soon. We must live in the moment and cheer for our boys. Wins and loses are not as important as personal stats right now. We have to get our free agents to be going but only so that they can be shipped off to a team in the hunt.

Nobody said it was going to be easy.....

2010-04-14

Blue Jays Add Canadian Third Base Prospect From Mets

Your Toronto Blue Jays rounded out the 40 man roster by acquiring Shawn Bowman off waivers. Bowman was drafted in the 12th round, 357th overall, of the 2002 amateur entry draft. He was taken out of Charles Best high school in Coquitlam, British Columbia.

Courtesy of Mike Newman/Mets Geek:

Shawn Bowman, 3B - Bowman is a former 12th round pick whose career started with a bang but has crashed and burned over the past three seasons. After averaging 17.5 HR per season as a nineteen- and twenty-year-old, his eight home runs over the past three seasons due to fracturing the same vertebrate in his back not once but twice leaves his current value at zero, although some Mets fans seem to think his power could recover. In 200 2008 at bats, he had only four homers while posting a 58/6 strikeout to walk ratio in High-A and Double-A. His advanced age, injury history, and lack of production have left him looking like an organizational player at best. Even when Bowman was at his best, he still had major holes in his offensive approach. His OPS’ stayed in the low- to mid-.700’s, with far too many strikeouts to be truly relevant. Don’t be fooled by his winter league numbers; Bowman was fresh in winter leagues notorious for players who are tired and simply going through the motions.

Not exactly a glowing report.

For his career he has a .253 average, 53 home runs and 216 RBIs in 439 minor league games heading into the 2010 season. The 6-3, 223 lb. native of New Westminster, British Columbia spent the 2009 season with Binghamton of the Eastern League (AA) where he hit .294 with 24 doubles, nine home runs and 44 RBI.

Analysis:

Considering how weak we are in terms of prospects at the third base position, this is not a bad pick up. Having said that, the re-occurring serious back injury is a major cause of concern. I guess the brain trust viewed it as a low risk / high reward type scenario. If he is healthy he will get an opportunity to play every day in the minors and could prove to be a useful player for the organization.

At this point, I have to agree with the Mets Geek and think he is nothing more than organizational depth.

2010-03-29

Remembering: Roy Halladay

I think I'm ready to talk about the trade now. I know it took a while. I have no idea where this one is going to go but I hope you enjoy the ride.....

Harry Leroy Halladay. AKA Doc

Your Toronto Blue Jays selected him the first round, 17th overall, in the 1995 MLB June Amateur Draft as an 18 year old. He rocketed through the minor leagues, reaching AAA by 1997 and the Majors in 1998 as a 21 year old. Things looked good. At the time we had three young right handed pitchers who seemed destined for success. They were Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar and Roy Halladay.

But everything became unraveled. Carp suffered some devastating arm injuries, Kelvim was bounced between the rotation and the bullpen and Doc got sent all the way back down to High A ball in 2001. He was told he needed to completely change his pitching mechanics and find some consistency. Instead of bitching and moaning like some of our current players did about being demoted, Doc went down and just did his work. I'm sure he was bitterly disappointed but he never let anyone know about it. By the end of 2001, he was back up in AAA. He started 2002 on the major league roster and went 19 - 7 in 34 starts amassing 239.1 innings and received his first of six all star game nominations. In 2003 he won his only Cy Young award. His numbers were ridiculous for a modern day pitcher. 22 - 7 record, 266 innings, 36 starts, 9 complete games. But the most amazing stat for me in that season was his walk totals. That year he faced 1071 hitters and walked 32 of them. Mind blowing stuff.

For his career he has 49 complete games in 287 starts, 15 of them shutouts. 17% of the time he took the ball, Doc finished what he started. For me, the best part of any of his games was when the manager went out to the mound to talk to him for the first time in an inning. Literally, a three second conversation ensued. I can only imagine how it went, but if I had to guess:

Manager says, "Doc you look a little tired."
Doc replies, "What's tired? Now go back to the dugout and let me get back to work."

I remember early in the 2008 season when he pitched four complete games in a row and remarkably we somehow managed to lose three of them. I guess that sums up his career here in Toronto better than anything else I could ever say.

April 12: 4 - 1 win
April 17: 4 - 1 loss
April 23: 5 - 3 loss
April 29: 1 - 0 loss

It was always a fast game when he was on the mound. I figured it out that last year the average length of the games he started was 2 hours and 45 minutes. Doc worked quickly, efficiently not wasting any time between pitches. He pounded the strikezone, almost seeming to dare hitters to swing. His focus was second to none and watching him set up his prey was an absolute treat for me being a former catcher.

"I want to throw a lot of innings, and I want to give the team a chance," Halladay said. "I try to be aggressive and pitch to contact."

And give us a chance to win you did sir.

Personally, I felt we were the best team in baseball every five days. I truly did. We never needed to score many runs with The Doctor on the mound and we usually didn't. I remember more than once writing the dates he was projected to pitch in my calendar and trying to keep them free so I could watch the surgeon preform his work.

Doc was always a bright light in a sometimes (mostly) dark season.

Day in and day out, he took the ball and executed. To me, the mark of an athletes greatness in any sport is how he preforms when he doesn't have his A material or "best stuff". Anybody can be great some of the time. Some guys are able to be great more than they are not. Doc was good enough to win, even with this offense, when he didn't have command of all of his pitches. Normally it was his curveball that would disappear, occasionally it was his cutter. On those days, he was forced to battle hitters. Jacking up the pitch count and refusing to give in. It was still good enough to give us a chance to win.

Over the years, people here in Toronto seemed to take his brilliance for granted. They must have assumed Doc would be a Blue Jay for life due to the fact he signed TWO under market value extensions to stay. Always saying, I just want to win and by signing for less we can spend that money on other players. The players union must have been pissed with his decision for obvious reasons but he still did it anyway. A true team guy. A lifelong Blue Jay. But then it all changed.....

Last summer we began to hear rumblings that Doc may be available on the trade market. J.P. was just throwing his name around in the media and making it seem like he wanted to leave. Selfishly I didn't want to believe it. Not Roy. ANYBODY but Roy. The fans reacted and quickly made their voices heard.

But deep down inside, how could we blame him for wanting to leave?

Doc waited most of his career for the brain trust to surround him with reinforcements, even providing them with the $ to do it. There was always an excuse, first it was the difference in the Canadian dollar vs the US dollar. We made our revenues in CAD and paid our expenses in USD. When the exchange rate was at 65 cents, that excuse seemed valid. But things slowly started to even out. Still no help. Then they bitched about not owning the stadium, so they tanked a few seasons and drove down attendance. Ultimately they got the stadium for dirt cheap and did try to spend some money on players.....it just didn't work out.

Considering his on field success, it is almost easy to forget about Doc's contributions to various local charities when talking about his legacy here in Toronto. But if you don't mention it, you are missing a big part of what made him so special. He and his wife Brandi owned a box in the SkyDome and even had it renovated, paying for it to be done themselves. It was appropriately called Doc's Box and every home game they treated children from nearby Sick Kids hospital to free baseball. First class all the way.

So where does that leave us? What are we suppose to do now?

We have lost a warrior. An true ace. The ultimate competitor.

But we had to do this deal. Ask any Toronto sports fan about what happened with the hockey teams former captain and you will understand why we had no choice. There was no way we could afford to let Doc walk for draft picks. And he had given this organization EVERYTHING he had.

The young players we got in return will always be mentioned in the same sentence as Doc. Always. And I for one think that may be a bit unfair. Replacing this type of player will be impossible. Don't even try.

A couple of positive things will happen this year for Roy Halladay. He will get a chance to pitch in the playoffs and maybe win a World Series. He will also (finally) be recognized as one of the best pitchers in baseball by the American sportswriters.

I have no ill will towards Doc. I cannot and will not cheer against him. It is not in my current DNA make up to do so. But seeing this breaks my heart.

I had every intention of writing this post link free. But I believe some of the articles that I have been saving since he left are a worthwhile use of your time. This may take you a little while to get through but I think you need to see these:

Dirk Hayhurst tells a great story. Click here
Ghost Runner on First recalls a day in the ~~life~~ existence of Roy Halladay. Click here
You Don't Know Dick Griffin chats with Brandi Halladay. Click here
USA Today tries to open some eyes. The Audio Q&A link is still active. Click here
The Cito talks about losing his ace. Click here
Shaun Marcum talks about losing Doc. Make sure to watch the 1 minute video. Click here
The prospects traded for Doc speak up. Click here
Bob Elliot follows Doc around for a day. Click here
Jason Stark @ ESPN does open some eyes. Click here
Roy Halladay's career stats. Click here
Roy Halladay's contract information. Click here
King Jordan observes a change in the clubhouse this year. Click here
Mop Up Duty wrote this a few months after I posted this. A must read

Conclusion:

This post took a lot out of me. I started it about two weeks ago when I thought I was able to talk about Roy being traded.....and I was wrong. Every time I revisited it since, I would think about another story or fact that I could use to help me convey my feelings. I could probably have kept writing about Doc for a while longer but I'm happy with this for now. Hope you enjoyed reading it.

The healing for me has finally begun.....

2010-03-17

Canadian Connection?

It's no secret that skipper Cito Gaston is in his last year as manager of your Toronto Blue Jays (thank God) and I think it's fair to say that the brain trust will be actively looking for his replacement shortly, if they have not begun already. We here at 1BlueJaysWay attempted to provide some early candidates that we wanted purely from an entertainment perspective.

Now it's time to get serious. A thought came to me last night:

We have a Canadian president in Paul Beeston. He has been in the business for over 25 years and the fact that he is Canadian had little bearing on him getting his old job back.

We also have a Canadian general manager in Alex Anthopoulos. He is a rookie at the job but he did it the right way. He started as an intern with the Expos and moved up the ladder based on merit.

So what are the chances that we are going to hire a Canadian to manage the team on the field?

Based on the current trend, I think it's fair to say they are good. Depending heavily of course on the candidates. Anthopoulos mentioned in an interview that he would prefer a field manager who has played or coached in the Major Leagues before. He also said it was his intention to contact every Major League team and discuss the hiring process with them to gain some insight.

I decided to do the same. I spoke to my friend at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame and asked for some details on Canadian born men who are still involved in the game and fit the criteria. He came back with two names.

The only big league Canadian coaches now are Dave McKay 1st base with the Cards and Rob Thomson 3rd with the Yankees. They both could be managers easily.

Rob Thomson: born in 1963 in Corunna, Ontario. (near Sarnia)

Check out his bio here

Dave McKay: born in 1950 in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Check out his bio here

Rob Thomson never reached the Majors Leagues as a player. The highest level he played was High A ball in the Tigers organization. He played four season in the minors, from 1985 to 1988, mostly at catcher and third base. He then went on to coach in the minors for the Tigers till he was hired by the Yankees to fill a similar role in 1990. He also has five years experience in the front office, as a Field Coordinator, Director of Player Development and Vice President of Minor League Development. He has Major League coaching experience as well and has even stepped in to manage the Yankees for three games in 2008 when Joe Girardi went down with an illness. He was the bench coach for a few seasons but now currently handles the third base coaching duties.

Dave McKay played in the Majors for parts of eight seasons with three different clubs including your Toronto Blue Jays. He was the opening day third basemen in our inaugural 1977 season. He has been coaching with Tony LaRussa since 1986. MLBTR put out this piece last season after yet another deflating playoff loss by the Cardinals. In it they questioned whether LaRussa would be back as manager beyond 2010. They specifically mentioned Toronto as a possible destination for LaRussa and subsequently McKay. It is possible LaRussa calls it a career after this season, so McKay may be available to interview for the job here. He has been involved in baseball since 1975 and is a member of the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame.

Analysis:

Now obviously there are many other qualified candidates to manage this team from 2011 and beyond. Almost all of them will not be Canadians. And I'm not saying that either of these guys would be released from their respective organizations anyways. What I am saying, is that if there are three or so candidates on the short list after the process runs it's course and all other things are considered equal, perhaps the nod goes to one of these two gentlemen because they are Canadian born.

If I had to choose between the two, I would take Rob Thomson for a few reasons.

First: He is a Yankee. He has been for 20 years. By signing him away it automatically makes them weaker. Which in turn makes us stronger.

Second: He is from Ontario and probably still has family here. It would be a homecoming of sorts for him.

Third: He is much younger than McKay and has an opportunity to be here for a long, long time.

Your thoughts?

Oh, and I almost forgot to mention:

2010-02-03

2010.....Destined To FAIL?

When thinking about the upcoming season, numerous things keep me up late at night. There are quite a few issues that will undoubtedly contribute to our losing record. I have decided to pinpoint one that seems particularly hopeless considering the circumstances.

These are the ground ball figures in percentages of the potential starting pitchers for your 2010 Toronto Blue Jays. These stats represent the number of times a ball was hit on the ground as opposed to in the air or on a line.

Romero: 54% 6th overall in MLB
Rzepczynski: 51.2%
Ray: 48.1%
McGowan: 2007 53% 2008 41.4%
Hill: 2008 46.3% 2009 30.2%
Marcum: 2008 43.1%
Cecil: 42.6%
Morrow: 2008 33.1% 2009 37.3%
Tallet: 36.3%
Litsch: 2009 34.4% 2008 48.5% 2007 48.1%
Richmond: 33.6%
Purcey: 31.5%
Mills: 14.8%

From this I can conclude there will be quite a few balls going up in the air off the opposing teams bats next year, most likely toward the outfielders. Now let's take a look at those projected outfielders Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) for the 2009 season:

Adam Lind, LF: -8.1
Travis Snider, RF: -2.4
Travis Snider, LF: 0.0
Jose Bautista, RF: 5.1
Jose Bautista, CF: 0.6
Jose Bautista, LF: -1.9
Joey Gathright, CF: -0.9
Joey Gathright, LF: 0.7
Joey Gathright, RF: 0.4
Jeremy Reed, LF: 3.7
Jeremy Reed, CF: -0.8
Jeremy Reed, RF: -1.3

Which brings me to the 3 time gold glove outfielder.
Here is our savior's career UZR:

2009: -18.2
2008: -14.3
2007: -1.1
2006: 7.5
2005: 3.2
2004: 9.9
2003: -18.3
2002: -8.8

Anybody want to take a guess at which three years he won the award?
What worries me the most is the steady decline.

Not pretty. Although there is one combo that doesn't look as bad as the others. Snider in LF, Vernon in CF and Bautista in RF provides average to above average defense in two of the three outfield positions. Look for these guys to be on the field when anybody named other than Romero or Rzepczynski is starting.

After discussing this with The Human Rain Delay, we decided that maybe we could try a rover out there. Let the shortstop play up the middle alone.

Or we could ask the commissioner's office if it would be OK if we played four across like they do in slopitch and kill the DH. That might help with the black hole / void space that is Vernon Wells in center.

I am a big believer in matching your strengths to other strengths as a team. Over the 162 game season, your weakness will be magnified for all to see and exploited by other teams. You can help minimize them by acquiring players that fit into your team vision. Check into what the Mariners are doing.....can you say pitching and defense?

For example, if you have a couple of guys on your roster that can run, group them together in the line up and turn em loose on the base paths. That way they are not caught behind a slow runner thus neutralizing their speed. If your team has a few guys that can slug, group them together and put a couple of on base guys, lead off type guys, in front of the them so that there will be runners on when it is their turn to hit. If your pitching staff throws a lot of ground balls, go get some vacuums / human walls to play the infield positions. And if your pitchers can't keep the ball on the ground, find some rabbits to play the outfield that can go deep into the alleys and make plays for them. This type of stuff only makes sense.

The brain trust has done none of this this off season.

All they have done is plug holes and brought in players that are cheap. We have made no attempt to match our strengths as a team. We traded for a fly ball pitcher, re-signed a slick fielding shortstop that can't hit, then signed another slick fielding shortstop that can't hit, a catcher that can't throw anybody out, yet another right handed reliever and a bunch of stiffs on minor league deals that can't do anything.

What good does it do to sign players that bolster your already average infield defense, if you know that most of the balls that are going to be put in play are going to go to your well below average outfield defense?