Walking Wounded

 
Player: Travis Snider

Injury: Upper-left (rib) side intercostal muscle strain

Quotes: "I tweaked something. We've just been taking a very cautious approach with the idea in mind of being ready for opening day. Hopefully, this thing is short-term. It happened about a week ago while playing golf before we even reported. It was a freak thing. It wasn't something that exploded on me, but just progressively got worse. It was a par-3. I hit it in the water. The best way to treat it is with rest and ice and not push it. I'll start playing as soon as possible. There's no timeframe at this point. It's already gotten a bit better. I'm glad it happened in February so that I don't have to be away from the team and trying to rush things back. The timing is unfortunate for spring training. There's a lot of work I wish I was able to be out there doing, but the most important thing is to get healthy." Travis Snider

Where he's at right now: He has taken batting practice for three consecutive days.

Prognosis: Expected to resume full baseball-related activities this weekend.

Bullshit Meter: Off the charts. Bob Elliott thinks something is up. He's not the only one.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Everybody took Snider on their ballot. So if he is unable to go then everyone is fucked equally.


Player: Aaron Hill

Injury: Tight right quadriceps muscle

Quotes: Manager John Farrell described the decision as “precautionary” and said the injury is unrelated to the hamstring problem that put Hill on the disabled list at the beginning of last season.

Where he's at right now: He went through full baseball-related activities on Sunday.

Prognosis: Expected to make his Spring Training debut on Wednesday morning.

Bullshit Meter: Extremely high. To say that this injury - considering it`s proximity to a known previous injury - is unrelated, is a little suspect. Generally the human body over compensates when a specific area is hurt and that sometimes results in another injury. Anyone that has sprained one of their ankles will tell you that eventually the other ankle gets worn down due to over use. Perhaps that is what is going on with Hill's leg. Just saying.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: See Snider.


Player: Frank Francisco

Injury: Undisclosed shoulder issue

Quotes: "It's not alarming, he's still throwing a baseball, we've got a progression mapped out for him. There's not an injury here per se, there's not a fatigue factor, he just likes to take things a little more slow, a little bit of a more gradual buildup to games." John Farrell

"It's the shoulder. We're just working to get it strong enough to go through the season. ... I think it's just part of the process." Frank Francisco

Where he's at right now: He never actually got shut down.

Prognosis: Expected to get into a game this weekend.

Bullshit Meter: Very low. The slower pace is consistent with Francisco's past so there is nothing to see here.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Everyone took 2Frank as well. Team April and Team OKBlujays were the only ones to not select him as the closer for the tie breaker. If he is unable to go, they stand to gain the most.


Player: Jon Rauch

Injury: Twisted right ankle

Quotes: “We just want to be sure that he has passed some tests from a physical standpoint before we put him back on the mound, we’ve got time on our side right now, and there’s no reason to think he won’t be ready once we get into the [Grapefruit League] schedule.” John Farrell

Where he's at right now: He is throwing 40 pitch bullpen sessions restriction free.

Prognosis: Expected to get into his first game on Thursday.

Bullshit Meter: Very high. Word is he hurt himself while walking down a flight of stairs. The only thing less believable than that is if they said he hurt himself walking up a flight of stairs.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: See Snider.


Player: Scott Podsednik

Injury: Plantar fasciitis in his left or right foot or both

Quotes: "I did everything normally up to a few days ago then it jumped back up and bit me. I want to do all the things to prevent this from coming back during the season. It would be easy to try to hit the ground running, but I can't do that. I have to be smart with it. I have to get prepared to take on the demands of 162 games, so I've communicated well with (trainer George Poulis) to this point and they're going to have a good plan for me to do that." Scott Podsednik

Where he's at right now: He took live batting practice yesterday and is expected to begin a light running program.

Prognosis: Doctors told him the cortisone shot he had injected normally takes around a week and a half to two weeks before it starts to work. Do the math.

Bullshit Meter: Ridiculously high. A quick recap shows that this injury apparently happened during a three day window. Sure it did.

• signed to a minor league deal Feb. 16

• received a cortisone injection on Feb. 19

• arrived at spring training Feb. 23

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Team James and Team Dave were the only contestants not to have Pods on their ballot.


Player: Kyle Drabek

Injury: Stiff neck

Quotes: "It's starting to get a little bit better, but not to the point where we're going to think [Monday] is going to be that drastic of an improvement," John Farrell

Where he's at right now: He missed his (dream match up) scheduled start yesterday.

Prognosis: Will throw a bullpen session tomorrow and is expected to make his first start of the Spring on Saturday.

Bullshit Meter: Very high. We are being led to believe he hurt himself sleeping. Really?

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Team Jonathan, Team James, Team Nemesis Enforcer and Team Man With The Golden Arm are the only managers not to have Drabek on their ballot.


Player: Dustin McGowan

Injury: Entire right arm and shoulder area

Quotes: "This is basically my last chance to get it right, and I want to do it the right way and make sure everything goes smoothly," Dustin McGowan

Where he's at right now: He is still throwing his scheduled bullpen sessions and continuing to building up his pitch count, intensity and repertoire.

Prognosis: Not expected to break camp with the team. Looks like another DL trip and "rehab assignment" to start the year in his future.

Bullshit Meter: Non existent. Not much to say here. It is what it is.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: No one selected him. Everyone is cheering for him.


Player: Jesse Carlson

Injury: Inflammation in his left shoulder

Quotes: "We're going to back him out for a couple of days," John Farrell

Where he's at right now: Recent test results revealed there is no structural damage to his left shoulder.

Prognosis: Doctors recommended that he stops throwing for the next seven days.

Bullshit Meter: Very low. Cito abused Jesse for a season and a half. Looks like it may be catching up with him.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Team Last Row 500`s, Team April, Team OkBluejays, Team Jeff and Team Jonathan all have Carlson making the Opening Day roster.


Player: Chad Cordero

Injury: Inflammation in his right shoulder

Quotes: "What's best for him is to back off a little bit," John Farrell

Where he's at right now: He has thrown a bullpen session and is scheduled for another one tomorrow.

Prognosis: Not expected to pitch in a game anytime soon.

Bullshit Meter: Uber low. The Chad had the same shoulder surgically repaired and lost pretty much two full seasons because of it. Yikes.

25 Man Roster Challenge Implications: Team LastRow 500`s is the only contestant that took a flyer on Cordero.

Quickly:

You Don't Know Dick really, really just needs to let it go. J.P. is long gone and voluntarily signed up to deal with the NY Mess. Ha!

OMG

In the last few days, a whole bunch of people have asked me about my thoughts on the Bautista deal. I must admit, they are still somewhat scattered.

When I first heard reports of the deal - 5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $13M - for the services of one Jose Bautista my initial reaction was: OMG what did we just do. Like most Toronto sports fans - more specifically Jays fans - long term deals give me the creeps. Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, BJ Ryan and Alex Israel Rios Cruz just to name a few that didn't work out so hot. You could say we have been a little snake bitten over the years.

Conversely all those seem to pale in comparison to the rage I felt when King Carlos was cut lose for nothing. Not even picks. How about the memories the name Chris Carpenter brings back. Remember what it was like to be cheap?

Argue all you want about true value but with both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols setting the market for free agents next year, you have to figure Bautista would have certainly cashed in. All he had to do was have a decent year and he would have made a great back up plan for whichever (large market) team missed out on the big boys. I don't think there is any way we get him to sign this same deal after the 2011 season has played it's course. He is still going to be hitting in the 3 hole in a power packed lineup that plays half it's games in a hitter friendly park. Christ, every park in the AL East minus Tampa Bay is a launching pad. He still has the same hitting coach that helped him "unlock" the power in his swing. His confidence is at an all time high as a player.

This deal to me is a bit of a gamble by the Boy Wonder. We all know that is what he has always said he needs to do to compete in this division. The Morrow for League trade was a gamble. The Gonzalez for Escobar trade was a gamble. The Gose for Wallace trade was a gamble. The Marcum for Lawrie trade was - you guessed it - a gamble. All of those guys, fair or not had question marks about their character or their game when we got them.

The difference with J-Bau is that he has been with us since the end of the 2008 season. He has had well over 1000 at bats in a Blue Jays uniform. The organization has gotten a chance to know him as a player and a person. He is an asset in the club house. He can communicate with every player on the team. There are no surprises with him like there was with Lawrie and Podsednik. On a somewhat more comparable scale, think about what is going on right now with Miggy and the Tigers. They gave away a decent haul and had to take on Dontrelle Willis just to get their hands on him. Then they pay all that cash to extend him only to find out he has a bit of a (reoccurring) drinking problem.

Some dick named J.P. traded Robinson Diaz for Jose Bautista. Straight up. Give credit where it's do.

Anyways, once the dollars and term of the deal was officially announced I went straight over to Cot's for some comparables. This made me feel much better.

I would take his deal - all things considered - over many on this list. It also doesn't prevent us from going out and adding another top dollar guy in the future.

Please note:

- These salary figures include the buyout amounts, which would have to be deducted if the option is exercised.

- In the interests of comparing apples to apples, I did not include pitchers.

Alex Rodriguez 3b
10 years/$275M (2008-17)

27.5M average salary over the life of the deal.
He was 32 when he signed this deal.

Joe Mauer c
8 years/$184M (2011-18)

23M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Mark Teixeira 1b
8 years/$180M (2009-16)

22.5M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Ryan Howard 1b

3 years/$54M (2009-11)
5 years/$125M (2012-16), plus 2017 option at $23M

22.375M
He will be 38 if the option is picked up.

Carl Crawford lf
7 years/$142M (2011-17)

20.286M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Miguel Cabrera 1b
8 years/$152.3M (2008-15)

19.038M

He was only 25 years old when he signed this deal.

Jayson Werth rf
7 years/$126M (2011-17)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

VernonWells of
7 years/$126M (2008-14)

18M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Torii Hunter of
5 years/$90M(2008-12)

18M
He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Ichiro Suzuki rf
5 years/$90M (2008-12)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Beltran of
7 years/$119M (2005-11)

17M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Matt Holliday lf
7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option at $17M

17.143M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Derek Jeter ss
3 years/$51M (2011-13), plus 2014 player option at $8M

17M
He will be a 40 year old free agent after he exercises his option.

Alfonso Soriano lf
8 years/$136M (2007-14)

17M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Lee of
6 years/$100M (2007-12)

16.667M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Jason Bay of
4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option at $17M

16.5M
He will be 35 if the option is picked up.

Michael Young inf
5 years/$80M (2009-13)

16M

He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Adrian Beltre 3b
5 years/$80M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $16M

16M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Troy Tulowitzki ss
10 years/$157.75M (2011-20), plus 2021 club option at $15M

15.775M
He will be 36 if the option is picked up.

Prince Fielder 1b
1 year/$15.5M (2011)
15.5M
He will be a free agent at 27 years old.

Aramis Ramirez 3b
5 years/$75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option at $16M

15M
He will be 34 if the option is picked up.

Albert Pujols 1b
7 years/$100M (2004-10), plus 2011 club option at $16M

14.286M
He is in line for one hell of a 32nd birthday present.

Travis Hafner dh
4 years/$57M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option at $13M

14.25M
He will be 36 if the option is exercised.

Chipper Jones 3b
3 years/$42M (2010-12), plus 2013 option at $7M

14M
He will be 41 if the option is exercised.

J.D. Drew of
5 years/$70M (2007-11)

14M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Adam Dunn 1b-of
4 years/$56M (2011-14)

14M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Todd Helton 1b
9 years/$141.5M (2003-11), plus 2012 club option
2 years/$9.9M (2012-13)

13.764M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

Justin Morneau 1b
6 years/$80M (2008-13)

13.333
He will be 32 when this deal expires.

Jorge Posada c
4 years/$52.4M (2008-11)

13.1M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

David Ortiz 1b/dh
4 years/$52M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option at $12.5M

13M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Jose Bautista 3b-of

5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 club option

13M
He will be 35 years old if the option is picked up.

Victor Martinez c-1b
4 years/$50M (2011-14)

12.5M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Paul Konerko 1b
3 years/$37.5M (2011-13)

12.5M

He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Dan Uggla 2b
5 years/$62M (2011-15)

12.4M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Chase Utley 2b

7 years/$85M (2007-13)

12.143M

He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Kosuke Fukudome of
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Aaron Rowand of
5 years/$60M (2008-12)

12M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Josh Hamilton of
2 years/$24M (2011-12)

12M
He will be 31 when this deal expires.

Carlos Guillen 2b
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M

He will be 35 when this deal expires.

I completely understand why so many people hate this deal. But I figure those are most likely the same people that hated on Bautista the entire 2010 season. Yes, it was improbable what he did. But he still did it. And that is one hell of a ceiling for a player offensively. Never mind the fact that he can play a serviceable 3rd base or right field for the team, right now. Near the end of the deal you could see him make the move to 1st base if need be.

Just one more thing everyone, please refrain from heaping all these expectations on him. I know it's what we do and it will be hard but.....try.

The Forgotten Man

When pitchers and catchers report to camp in 4 days I'm thinking that LHP Brad Mills will probably need to be wearing a name tag. It would seem that Millsy has been passed on the starting pitcher depth chart. New field manager John Farrell didn't even mention him as a candidate for the open two spots in the rotation. Ouch.

Let's look at what we know:

- Brad Mills has 1 option year left. Meaning he can be sent down to Vegas for this year but looking forward, he needs to be on the MLB roster in 2012.

- He relies a lot on his 86 MPH fastball. Like 58% of the time.

- His change up is clearly his best pitch. Batters swing at it about half the time and they miss it about 17% of the time.

- J.P. Ricciardi drafted him twice. In the 22nd round of the 2006 draft and then in the 4th round of the 2007 draft. The player must give consent in order for this to happen.

- J.P. already pooched one of his former draft picks - Brad Emaus - in the Rule 5 draft.

Conclusion:

If Brad Mills is to be traded, based on his pitch repertoire and velo, he probably would be better suited in the NL. He does have some MLB experience and is a young, controllable left handed starting pitcher. I have to think that the receiving team would prefer to get him when he still has that option year left.

If I was in charge I would call The Mets division rivals and let it be known we are thinking of moving Mills. Then sit back and wait for the news to filter it's way to J.P.

I'm not sure how much value Brad Mills actually has - right now - but I'll venture a guess and say that it will never be higher.

Weekly Round Up: It's been a while.....

Yeah so whatever. My e-mail account and Twitter feed are cluttered. It's downright silly at this point. Plus, it's not like I plan to stop looking for new sexy cowgirls on line anytime soon.

What I have done is turned in my BBA membership card, turned off sitemeter and remembered why I started up this bitch in the first place. It's not about pages views. It's not about making money. And it's certainly not about writing out everything that happens, as it happens, everyday.

What is it about you ask?

That's simple. A place where we are all free to discuss Blue Jays baseball. That and I need somewhere to keep all this shit together. An outlet if you will.

Anyways, a long overdue round up for y'all.

Consider this your required reading.

Consider this your required listening.

Consider this your required viewing. There were a couple of honorable mentions.

Courtesy of Jim Callis:

Every year, there's usually at least one prospect who gets caught in Top 10 limbo, and this year it's Lawrie. He would have been our No. 1 Brewers prospect, but he got traded to the Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum before our Milwaukee Top 10 came out—and after our Toronto Top 10 was published. So Lawrie won't make a Top 10 in our magazine or on our website, though he will appear in the 2011 Prospect Handbook.
Here's the scouting report that would have appeared with our Brewers Top 10 had Lawrie stayed put:
The Brewers put Lawrie on the fast track in 2010 by assigning him to Double-A Huntsville at age 20, making him the second-youngest regular in the Southern League. Very confident to the point of cockiness, he was anything but intimidated and got better as the season progressed and he adjusted to the higher level of competition. He led the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16) and total bases (250). Lawrie has very strong hands and a quick bat, allowing him to wait on pitches and drive the ball to all fields. He's not a prolific home run hitter but piles up extra-base hits by shooting the ball into the gaps. Lawrie needs to balance his aggressiveness with more plate discipline, however. Though he stole 30 bases, he was caught 13 times and his speed is just average. Lawrie has smoothed out some of his rough edges in the field but still must work on making his hands softer, as evidenced by the 25 errors he committed in 131 games at second base in 2010. He has solid arm strength but may not have the first-step quickness to remain at second. He won't have to be a Gold Glove defender because his bat will get him to the big leagues and keep him there. If he has to move to an outfield corner, he'll still provide enough offense to profile as a quality regular.
Lawrie will rank No. 2 on our Blue Jays list, between righthanders Drabek and Deck McGuire. I don't think Lawrie will stay at second base and think his big league home will be right field. He should join Toronto at some point in 2012.

So there. Even if Lawrie does turn out to be a corner OF, he is still suppose to profile as above average there. Currently, he slides right in at number 2 on the BA list of best prospects in the system.

Courtesy of The Wall Street Journal:

J.P. Ricciardi came to the Mets in November after eight years as the Toronto Blue Jays' general manager—eight years of running a team that only once finished higher than third in Major League Baseball's best division.
So now that Mr. Ricciardi is a special assistant to Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, the prospect of having to wrench supremacy in the National League East away from the Philadelphia Phillies doesn't fill him with much apprehension.
"The AL East always had two or three teams coming at you," he said by phone recently. "After having done it so many years against the Yankees and the Red Sox and Tampa being good through that cycle, I'll take my chances. Even though the Phillies are really good, I'll take my chances over here."

Pussy.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick:

The comfort that Wells has found later in life has come from the fact he realizes that he is not worth what he is being paid, but, in fact who is?
“I think the most important thing about getting contracts like this is you get to go out and do so many different things in the community,” Wells admitted.
“You get to go out and impact lives. The way I feel about it, I was blessed with that contract to go out and do things. Everybody would say I’m not worth the money and I would totally agree that I’m not worth that contract, but I don’t think there is anybody . . . but I know what I can do with that contract will far outdo what that contract’s worth.”
Jays fans, understandably, only care about results on the field.

In other news, winter is cold and the CN Tower is really tall.

Courtesy of Jeremy Sandler:

In less than a week, the Toronto Blue Jays should know if a 14-year streak is going to continue.
The club has not gone to an arbitration hearing with a player since reliever Bill Risley in 1997. But the Jays have a major league-high nine players eligible this season and a team-imposed deadline of Tuesday to clear them from the books.
Toronto’s timeline shrunk last year when general manager Alex Anthopoulos said the team would not negotiate after salary figures were officially submitted for arbitration. That policy is expected to continue this season.

By my calculation the team imposed deadline or "file-to-go" strategy if my memory serves correctly is on Tuesday around mid day. I predict a flurry of signings in the next 24 hours or so to keep us happy.

Courtesy of Jeff Caplan:

Lance Berkman, a career National League outfielder and first baseman with the Houston Astros, agreed to be traded last season to the New York Yankees. He knew he wouldn't play first base for the Yanks. That is property of Mark Teixeira. Berkman went to the Bronx Bombers to serve solely as DH and perhaps a game here or there at first.
When New York came to town late in the regular season, Berkman -- who is 34, the same age as Young -- talked about what it's like to hit and then not trot out to your position.
"At the time, I had never not played every day and I didn’t realize how much I appreciate being out there and playing defense," Berkman said. "That’s one of the byproducts of this trade is it’s made me realize I love to play defense and play it every day. I knew I liked defense, but to me the game is so much easier from a rhythm standpoint, from a timing standpoint when you know you’re going to be in there and when you get to go out there and play the field."
Pretty strong words.

I thought I would include this one for all you E5 will be a great DH types out there to consider. You know who you are.

Courtesy of Cathal Kelly:

Good Lord, we need to move on. How about we try the Blue Jays.
“It seems to me like they’ve got everything in place. It feels like, to me, like they’ve got it right and they shouldn’t touch it now. They feel me to like a bow and arrow, like they’re ready to launch.”
Are we talking playoffs?
“I’m not going to push it.”

A psychic’s look at your Toronto Blue Jays future fortunes. Yeah. Right.

Courtesy of Chris Jaffe:

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Toronto Blue Jays have lost 2,709 games in franchise history. There have been more important losses, more heart-rending losses, and more memorable losses, but none of losses were quite as lamely filtered away as one that came 10,000 days ago today.
After nine innings, they battled the Orioles to a 4-4 tie in Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium. The top of the tenth got off to a great start for the visiting Blue Jays, as Cliff Johnson led off the frame with a go-ahead homer. Jays led, 5-4. As an added bonus, Barry Bonnell followed that up with a single. Things were going great.
They were about to go stupid.

A great reminder on one of the reasons why teams like to carry an extra lefty in the pen. Keeping guys close at first base late in a tight game is a weapon that far too many managers don't use nearly enough.

Courtesy of Roto Professor:

The Closer: Octavio Dotel
He became the front-runner for the job once he signed his free agent contract, but he is far from a lock to maintain it all year long. In fact, it is arguable that he is even the best man for the job.
Dotel pitched for three different teams in 2010 (Pirates, Dodgers & Rockies), compiling a 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He certainly still is a strikeout artist, posting a strikeout rate of at least 10.55 each of the past four seasons. However his fastball, which is a pitch he throws over 80% of the time, has been losing a little bit of zip in recent years:

• 2007 – 93.5 mph
• 2008 – 92.5 mph
• 2009 – 92.6 mph
• 2010 – 91.7 mph

That certainly makes you wonder if he will be able to sustain the lofty strikeout rates or if a regression could be in order.
Another question is his control. He’s never posted good control numbers (career BB/9 of 4.09), but he has been even worse over the past two years with walk rates of 5.20 and 4.50. Throw in his struggles against lefties (they hit .301 against him in 2010 while his strikeout rate was just 7.66 and walk rate was 7.25) and there should be major concerns with his ability to shut down games (in the AL East he’ll have to face batters like Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez and others).

In fact, it's over 85% if you include the cutter, which clocks in at a cool 89.7 MPH. I have to think the guts of this article is bogus. It's basically saying Dotel throws a slider and a fastball. That's it. A cut fastball, regardless of the fact it has the word fastball in it, in my opinion, is another pitch altogether. It has to be thrown slower and thus moves more than a fastball.

A more appropriate statement to make regarding Dotel's velo in "recent years" would be: Since 2007 he has thrown the fastball almost 60% of the time and it comes in between 92 and 93 MPH. He mixes in a cutter and a slider.

Unfortunately all the shit about lefties is accurate.

All that said, I'm looking forward to watching him break some bats for us this year and try to remind yourself during one of the inevitable meltdowns this upcoming season that shitty bullpens do make the game of baseball more interesting.

Courtesy of R.J. Anderson:

Offenses driven behind low on-base percentages and high slugging percentages have existed throughout the history of the league (with league context being key in defining what a high slugging percentage defines). But recent seasons have led to a proliferation of these offenses. Perhaps we should take to calling them the Joe Carter offenses in honor of the Blue Jays’ legend with a slugging percentage of gold and an on-base percentage of tinfoil. I fully understand that even if the Jays returned the same lineup they would be unlikely to replicate their 2010 feats. Still, I wanted to know how the teams alongside the Jays fared in the year thereafter.

This is a must read.

Courtesy of R.J. Anderson:

What Bautista’s season means is simple and complicated. Bautista owned 59 career home runs in more than 2,000 plate appearances entering the 2010 season. He then added 54 jacks in 683 plate appearances. A journeyman becoming the most feared batter in baseball in the blink of a winter is an unpleasant thought because history provides little comfort. Keep Bautista’s lack of a 20 home run season in mind as you read the accomplishments of the other players to hit 50-plus in a single season.

This too.

Courtesy of TSN:

With the Toronto Blue Jays being better than expected last season, fans of the club hope that the Jays can contend in the AL East in 2011, but what should they expect in 2011 from Jose Bautista, who led the majors with a surprising 54 home runs last season?
In order to help Jays' fans get a glimpse of what could be, we're collecting different projection systems' results so fans of Canada's lone MLB team can see what others are expecting the Jays to do.

Some projection systems go head to head. Interesting to note the differences.

Courtesy of Matt Klaassen:

2. Edwin Encarnacion, July 4, -.224 WPA. The Jays were playing the Yankees on Independence Day when Encarnacion came up to the plate in the tenth with runners on first and second, no one out, and the score tied at six. He bunted into the air to the third baseman and Adam Lind got thrown out at second. The Jays went on to lose in the bottom of the inning.

As a manager, it's not really fair to ask your player to do something in a game you know he can't do. In extra innings against the Yankees? That is just plane stupid.

Courtesy of Scott Carson:

Now, there's a new sheriff in town and his name is John Farrell. While he's a former pitcher and pitching coach by nature, he's been around the game long enough to have a strong opinion on what direction he would like his team to take at the plate. Based upon his introduction to the Toronto media and subsequent comments at the winter meetings, you Cito-bashers out there -- and I know there are more than just a handful of you -- must be enjoying the fact that the Jays will be bringing a lot more 'small ball' into the mix.

Sounds like anyone you might know?

Weekly Round Up: Dec. 6 - 12

Consider this your required reading for the week.

Consider this your required listening for the week.

Consider this your required viewing for the week.

Boy Wonder did a couple of really solid interviews this week. You can find them here and here. Must reads.

Courtesy of MILB:

MiLB.com: What did you learn from your three starts in the Major Leagues this season?

Drabek: Just little things here and there from the players. When I got called up, I tried to learn as much as I could so I could take whatever I learned and take it into next year. The way you handle yourself on the mound is a big part of the game. You have to be able to stay calm out there to help yourself throughout the game.

MiLB.com: What's the biggest difference that you noticed between the Eastern League and the Majors?

Drabek: From [Class A Advanced] to Double-A, I thought it was a big jump in how good the hitters were and how tight the strike zone got. But in the Majors it gets a little bit tighter and the hitters are that little bit better. The hitters are the biggest thing, though. They are all pretty much amazing, that is why they are up there.

Nice interview with Kyle Drabek. Seems like he will be given every opportunity to win a job next spring. The only thing that could hold him back is the dreaded service time.

Courtesy of Beyond the Boxscore:

Villanueva's overall whiff rate of .324 ranked 7th in the majors among pitchers with at least 200 opposing plate appearances.  The slider is elite, and the change doesn't look bad, either.  There were a ton of liners, particularly off of the fastball, which is not good news.  What's particularly interesting is that, as you can by the pitch percentages, Villanueva throws the four pitches with more or less the same frequency.

All the info you could ever want on our new bullpen guy. Does he get a middle relief job or is he more of a long man?

Courtesy of Baseball America:

Emaus is playing in the Dominican Republic for the Toros and hitting .267/.353/.476 with four home runs. He played his first game at second base, his preferred position, on Wednesday after playing every other winter game at third. He said he was surprised and disappointed when the Blue Jays left him off the 40-man roster in November but excited to get picked by the Mets.
"My agent (ACES' Mike Zimmerman) told me this week that there was a 50-50 chance I'd be taken in the Rule 5, and right now I'm just very ecstatic, excited to be given another chance by the Mets," Emaus said via phone from the Dominican. Asked to give Mets fans a scouting report, Emaus said, "I'm just a blue-collar guy, a solid guy who has to know the game, has to have some (baseball IQ) because I don't have great tools. I'm not flashy but I bring my best every day and go out trying to find an edge."

I think he sticks with the Mets all season. J.P. is smarter than everybody else and can`t ever admit he is wrong. This time will be no different.

Courtesy of Gregor Chisholm:

Anthopoulos declined to name any specific players he is targeting but did admit he is trying to be as active as he can. The GM did not leave the Winter Meetings with any free-agent offers on the table, though, because that goes against the way he likes to operate.

"I don't like leaving an offer out there, [because] then it allows it to be shopped," Anthopoulos said. "My style is more getting the parameters, letting the agent know those parameters probably make sense for us, [then] we'll be in that mix.

"I want to know that the player wants to be here, or at least we're on a short list. If the agent then comes back and says, 'Look, he's willing to come here, you're definitely one of the top places he wants to be,' ... If I can get a window to start negotiating with someone and we're engaged and there's a back and forth, that's usually my process."

Some decent insight right there.

Courtesy of Gregor Chisholm:

"That's strictly based off our scouts," Anthopoulos said of the selections. "If we have a scout that believes strongly in someone, we don't have anything to lose. I'm a big believer that if you have a scout pounding the table for someone that's a Rule 5 Draft -- or a waiver claim or something like that -- you just got to go ahead and do it. ... If you can't do that for your scout, there's something wrong."

If you wanna see just how many scouts we got click here. Scroll about halfway down the page.

Courtesy of Samuel Wilner:

Lawrie will go to Las Vegas this year, and see if he can tear it up there.  Lesser talents have done exactly that.

This trade, which is most assuredly a step back in the hopes of moving a couple of steps forward, now gives the Jays young elite-level controllable position-player talent in Escobar and Snider at the major-league level, Gose and d’Arnaud in the low minors, and Hechevarria and Lawrie in the high minors.  These guys - along with Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek and Stewart - are the building blocks of the teams the Jays will have when they become perennial contenders.  Shaun Marcum wasn’t going to be one of those guys, by the simple matter of his age.

Rarely - if ever - do I bother reading Mike Wilner`s bullshit. But I must say he was on quite a streak while covering the winter meetings.

Courtesy of  Scott Carson:

Most of you might complain that dealing that much future is foolish, but I beg to differ. I’ve seen Snider since he first arrived as a 20-year-old after just 305 games of minor-league experience. I was wowed by his line drive home run power, an above-average arm and okay foot speed for a "thick bodied" youngster. But I also became leery of his average baseball IQ and the fact that he had trouble with the in-game coaching he was receiving from Cito Gaston and Gene Tenace. That raised some red flags from members of the Sportsnet broadcast booth who once played this game.

As for Drabek, I’ve only seen him pitch three times in the majors, but I won’t say that I was blown away at any time. Average height (6-foot-1), he certainly won’t intimidate opponents from six feet, six inches away. And I saw nothing that screamed out "ace" (though it was a small sample I admit.)

On the other hand, I rarely miss one of Scott`s columns. I was quite disappointed in this one.

I never did end up getting any info on Alan Farina

It all started with a kind offer. I decided to take him up on it.

Good day sir,
I am writing you in response to your gracious offer for video and your thoughts on Blue Jays prospect Alan Farina.
I have a Jays blog and we did a massive post a while back on all of the prospects in the system. At that time, we had very little info on Farina.
I would like to update the post now and would appreciate any thoughts you may have on him, or anybody else. We just used second hand info on his out pitch and repertoire.
Thanks for your time.
--
The Man with the Golden Arm

I can be very diplomatic when the time calls for it. He replied, quite quickly in fact, with this.

Farina pitched at one of the AFL games I attended, but I don't believe I got any video of him. Pitching was really down in the league this year, so I spent most of my time watching hitters from down the first and third base lines. 

I think I saw every Blue Jay hitter who was in the league at least once. Any one in particular you'd want info on?

Adam

Yes, yes there is.

Well shit.
Your site is the one with the kick ass prospects write ups and what not. It wouldn't be right to just rip off your insights and say they were my own.
That being said, I would love to share ANY Blue Jays related stuff you can give with our readers. In my experience, video is especially valuable. Guys taking BP, infield warm up, in game situational plays, whatever.
Absolutely anything you wanna include in the way of scouting reports, personal observations, what you overheard other people saying etc is a bonus.
Really appreciate the help.
I will run everything I plan to post by you, once it's completed, if you wish.

Now I'm pretty sure he can see I'm not a square. 

Sounds good. Maybe you can give me a guy or two who you want to know more about and I'll give you some info.

Translation: What do you wanna know?

AFL guys from this year?

Eric Thames for sure.
Conflicting reports by the "experts" on his game.
Mike McDade and Adam Loewen would be a distant second and third.

There always comes a time when you have to get specific. 

What are some of the conflicting reports you've heard about Thames? Maybe I can help clear those up. I've seen him four or five times now. 

At this point I go find some stuff off the top of my head. He may have been testing me a little bit.

Well Sickels likes him. Thinks his power is legit.

The stuff behind the BA paywall says he is strong and projects as an average LF.
And Klaw hates him. "Don't see him as more than a fringe regular. Probably a 4th OF or up-and-down guy."
All have him in the big leagues in some role. Interested on your take.

Wait for it.....

Thames really improved his core strength and agility between the time I saw him last spring and last fall. He went from being a bulky dude who looked ready to pull a muscle at any point to someone with very impressive flexibility and athleticism.

I haven't broken down his swing in detail yet, but it is a bit long. He has enough power to put a charge into the ball regularly. A rhythm hitter, I think he borders on being too selective at the times -- takes a lot of pitches. He'll chase out of the zone and take some ugly swings when he's behind in the count. Thames gets good reads in the left field, has solid speed and can make some impressive plays. His arm is below-average.

I think Thames has a chance to turn into a near-average regular. And he'll almost certainly be a big leaguer. But he may not hit enough to be a starting left fielder for a playoff caliber team.

Loewen is an amazing athlete for a dude his size. As most people would expect, he has a cannon of an arm. He's a very impressive runner for a giant, too. And he has elite raw power. He won't ever be much of a contact hitter, but he went from being hopeless for much of the 2009 AFL season to decent in 2010. I see him as a power bat off the bench, but he might manage to turn into someone that a big league team feels comfortable starting a few days a week, when the matchup looks good.

AKA the good stuff. Not really a whole lot I can add at this point. But I give it a go.

Thames does yoga religiously. Could explain the body type transformation.
Interesting take on Loewen. My buddy who works at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame said he saw him back before he got drafted while he was still a pitcher and raved about his power with the stick of all things. That was like 5 or 6 years ago.
Thanks for that.
You got any video on either guy you can share?

I guess you could call me greedy but someone told me to always keep your eye on the prize.

Yep. I'll upload some video of both taking BP today.
Oh and McDade is not a big leaguer for me. Poor approach to hitting
and no defensive value.

Bonus!

That's awesome. Thank you.
Do you think Loewen gets selected in the Rule 5 draft?

Just one more thing.....

Eh, Loewen would be a gamble in the Rule 5. Maybe. He'd get embarrassed at the plate.

This is good news people.

Here are those videos.

Money in the bank. Is it just me or does the ball sound different coming off the bat of Thames?

If you got something on the brain and you are not a moron, why don't you try shooting Adam an email adamf@projectprospect.com and see what happens.

If you don't wanna bother with that, then you should at the very least follow him on Twitter. May I also suggest you bookmark this site and subscribe to this channel on YouTube while your at it.

Rock solid stuff.

Quickly:

Speaking of the Rule 5 draft, it's tomorrow and I have a prediction.

J.P. and the Mets will take Brad Emaus and they will keep him all season.

Call it a hunch.

Weekly Round Up: Nov. 1 - Nov. 7

Consider this your required reading for the week.

Consider this your required listening for the week.

Consider this your required viewing for the week.

I have decided to include this blast from the past circa 2001 for your enjoyment.

Courtesy of Bobby Elliott:

The search for the next Blue Jays manager was exhaustive, thorough and involved as many as 25 employees.
Almost everyone but Rogers Centre ushers, who were not asked to look under the seats for potential candidates, helped in the search.
General manager Alex Anthopoulos began the process in the spring, accelerated it in September, began interviewing at the end of the season, cut the field to his finalists ...
Weighing the input of his staff of advisers and scouts, Anthopoulos brought three finalists in for one-on-ones with Paul Beeston in the presidential suite. And on Oct. 22, John Farrell accepted the job to manage the Jays.
A look behind the scenes at Anthopoulos’ most important challenge in the spring with 150 candidates, shrunk to 46 to 19 to five to four to one.

Bobby does another one of his time line pieces. Rock solid as usual. Sounds like lunchtime at Il Posto in Yorkville is a good place for the autograph seekers of the world to scope out.

Courtesy of Nick Cafardo:

But the more homers he hit, the more skeptical some became. Bautista was hurt by speculation that he might be using performance-enhancing drugs. He took his lumps as columnists raised the issue.

“Maybe I wasn’t loud enough about it, but it was disappointing to hear those things,’’ he said. “People say things and write things without proof.

“I’ve been tested since the minor leagues. I was tested five or six times this season. I did what I did with hard work and dedication to my hitting. I’ve worked hard my whole career to get to the point where I got last year. It didn’t happen overnight.

“It’s upsetting and disappointing that some people don’t think hard work and dedication allow you to have good results. It’s very unfair and it needs to stop, but it’s just something I’m going to have to deal with.’’

What is more remarkable is that Bautista played with the injury from late April.

“There was a two-week period when I first heard something pop that it really hurt,’’ he said. “It was annoying the rest of the time more than anything, but it was there.

“I can’t say that during that two-week period it prevented me from hitting more home runs, but it probably prevented me from getting my hits or extending a single into double or something like that. It was just one of those things that was there and I had to play with it and deal with it.’’

Strongest language I've heard come from J-Bau regarding the PED`s allegations.  

Courtesy of Klaw:

Question:
This piece on CNBC's website http://bit.ly/9qxAlT says that if the Yankees offer Cliff Lee 5 yrs at $120M Texas can offer 5 yrs at $111M and it would be the same net once NY taxes are accounted for. Do players and their agents pay attention to this?

Answer:
Of course they do. It was an issue in Toronto because Canadian taxes are so high. (This was a chronic argument between me and Ricciardi; I argued it was strictly financial, but he said - I believe he said this publicly - that players didn't want to come play in Canada. I think one look around the streets of Toronto in the summer time would convince any player, especially a single player, that Toronto is an awesome place to play.)

Klaw answers some questions in his weekly chat. Perhaps now he can focus his hate on the New York Mess instead of us, but I doubt it.

Courtesy of Shi Davidi:

Snider has also embraced perhaps his most unusual quote, taken from a nachos taste test he performed for a Toronto community magazine in 2009. One of the plates sent his way featured both beef and chicken and he responded to a question about it by saying, "Meats don't clash."
While one enterprising blogger, The Blue Jay Hunter, began selling shirts featuring the quote and Snider caught some ribbing from his buddies back home, he's used the phrase a couple of times on his Twitter feed.
"I'm a big meat-lover, obviously," Sinder said. "Meat-lover's pizza, meat-lover's omelettes, those kinds of things, I do honestly believe that meats don't clash and when I saw that article ... and I got to show some of my buddies back home, they were like, 'You're ridiculous, what are people asking you about nachos for?'
"I said, 'I don't know man. You gave me the name Lunchbox and they've ran with it, we'll just see where it goes.'"

Nice to see Ian getting a much deserved shout out right there! His blog, The Blue Jay Hunter, is top notch.

Courtesy of Chris Toman:

"If it makes sense, and the value is there, we have full authority to be able to move forward," Anthopoulos, the Blue Jays' general manager, said recently, in reference to ownerships' willingness to increase payroll.
Anthopoulos will entertain the thought of dangling his young talent, who are contributing towards his goal of long-term sustainability, for players who can contribute immediately in a move to remain competitive.
"I'm not opposed at all to taking prospects and trading them for big-league players," Anthopoulos said.
It's a likely scenario given Toronto's strong farm system.

Trading prospects for MLB ready talent. Huh. That`s a new one. Maybe we are getting closer.....

Courtesy of TSN:

As part of the 14-man committee appointed and chaired by Selig to examine ways of improving the game, Beeston is in position to influence the process more than others.
Only when it comes to adding teams to the playoffs, it seems others have been working their influence over him.
"I'm not completely there yet," he said in an interview this week. "But I listen to all the arguments on both sides, I think you have to have an open mind about it. There are some compelling arguments in favour of expanding the playoffs and the ones against it go back to tradition.
"We as an industry are different from the other sport leagues and being different there's a sanctity to a schedule that lets the best teams proceed to the playoffs."

Nice to have a guy on the inside. 

I say: take your time deciding on the potential extra playoff teams Mr. President but for fuck sakes can you please work on getting us a balanced schedule? If we didn`t have to face the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa Bay for just about a third of our games each season, then perhaps we can get in under the current playoff structure. 

Courtesy of TSN:

Alex Anthopoulos can pinpoint the exact moment his mindset as general manager of the Toronto Blue Jays changed. The instant when the "light bulb went off" came during a conversation with Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty during spring training in March.
Anthopoulos was digesting the decision to give Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria US$10 million over four years. Weeks earlier, Jocketty had outbid Anthopoulos for another Cuban, left-hander Aroldis Chapman, and praised him for accepting the risk in signing Hechavarria.
"He said, 'That's how you're going to get better, you're going to get better if you take a shot, you're going to have to take a shot at times,"' Anthopoulos recalled during a recent interview.
"I looked back at my off-season, trade talks, dialogue ... and I just found myself being so much more conservative than I needed to be or wanted to be."
The main takeaway for Anthopoulos as he heads into his second off-season as GM is that while risk shouldn't be embraced recklessly, it's OK to swing and miss once in a while if the potential reward is worthwhile.
Since he believes playing it safe won't help the Blue Jays overcome the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays, they must find other ways to close the gap in the American League East, and taking more calculated gambles is one way to accomplish that.
"If we're going to do what everyone else is going to do in this division, we have no chance of getting better," said Anthopoulos. "If it's the easy decision and everything lines up, the I's are dotted and T's are crossed, well everyone is going to look to do it and you're probably not going to be able to do what you want to do.
"We're going to have take chances at times and make moves that may open us for criticism, but we also have to look at the upside of the moves. They may backfire and may not work, but if they hit, we're going to do really well.
"And that's how we're going to get better."

Courtesy of Fan Graphs:

If the Jays offer arbitration and everybody declines – obviously the best case scenario – the Jays will come out of this with at least 5 supplemental draft pick and two second round picks. If Frasor and Downs were to go to a team with an unprotected pick – this year, the 19th pick, held by the Detroit Tigers, is the first unprotected pick – the Jays could pick up two more first rounders. In this ideal situation, the Jays could pick up an utterly massive haul, with eight picks in the top 50 of the draft. Said haul becomes even more impressive when we consider that the upcoming draft in 2011 is considered to be one of the deeper drafts of recent times, and far deeper than the 2010 draft.
If, however, the Jays do indeed on offering arbitration to these five relatively marginal players, there will be risk involved. As a whole, the five players had a salary of $13.15 million. Because of how arbitration works, it’s a near lock that every player would see a salary increase. Buck and Olivo are both coming off career years. Frasor put up a solid 3.68 ERA, and Gregg (3.51) and Downs (2.54) were even better. If the entire group accepted arbitration, I could see a total salary of $20 million to possibly $30 million, on top of the $1.25 million buyouts for Olivo and Gregg.
The difference is nearly equivalent to the potential value of the picks that the Jays would acquire. According to Victor Wang’s research from 2009, a first round draft pick is worth about $5.2 million, a supplemental pick worth $2.6M, and a second round compensatory pick (guaranteed to be in the top half of the 2nd round) worth $0.8M. Therefore, that the type Bs – Buck, Olivo, Gregg – would contribute $2.6M in value each (total $5.8M) and the type As could contribute either $7.8M or $3.4M (range of $6.8M to $15.6M, for a total range of $12.6M to $21.4M).

A lot of us, myself included, were wondering out loud about whether or not the $500K buy out for Olivo was to much to pay for a draft pick. As it turns out, it is not.    

Courtesy of MILB:

"That's the key for me, that's the reason they sent me here," Rzepczynski said. "I need to get ahead and learn and work on my fastball command, throw my sinker in the zone and get quick outs."
The Jays also sent the former fifth-round pick to the AFL to get in some more innings after he broke a finger on his pitching hand during Spring Training. He began the year with Triple-A Las Vegas and made a dozen starts before going 4-4 with a 4.95 ERA in 12 outings for Toronto. Much of his success came in September, when he won three starts and compiled a 2.86 ERA.
"I got hurt, I missed about six weeks, and I had only 130 innings and they wanted me to get to 170 innings, so they're sending me here to get my innings up," he explained. "And working on throwing the fastball more for strikes, those are the two main things I'm trying to do."
The Jays hinted earlier this month that Rzepczynski's role may change next season, depending on how the roster fills out. With top prospect Kyle Drabek set to compete for a rotation spot, Toronto may look to use Rzepczynski out of the bullpen. He said he'd prefer to start but is open to whatever the organization has planned.
"They sent me here to start, so next year we'll see how Spring Training goes," he said. "If they put me in the bullpen, then they put me in the bullpen, but I'd like to start. They sent me here to be a starter, so I'm just working toward that for spring."

Rzep is a man among boys in the AFL. He is just there to get some innings in and tell some war stories.