OMG

In the last few days, a whole bunch of people have asked me about my thoughts on the Bautista deal. I must admit, they are still somewhat scattered.

When I first heard reports of the deal - 5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $13M - for the services of one Jose Bautista my initial reaction was: OMG what did we just do. Like most Toronto sports fans - more specifically Jays fans - long term deals give me the creeps. Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, BJ Ryan and Alex Israel Rios Cruz just to name a few that didn't work out so hot. You could say we have been a little snake bitten over the years.

Conversely all those seem to pale in comparison to the rage I felt when King Carlos was cut lose for nothing. Not even picks. How about the memories the name Chris Carpenter brings back. Remember what it was like to be cheap?

Argue all you want about true value but with both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols setting the market for free agents next year, you have to figure Bautista would have certainly cashed in. All he had to do was have a decent year and he would have made a great back up plan for whichever (large market) team missed out on the big boys. I don't think there is any way we get him to sign this same deal after the 2011 season has played it's course. He is still going to be hitting in the 3 hole in a power packed lineup that plays half it's games in a hitter friendly park. Christ, every park in the AL East minus Tampa Bay is a launching pad. He still has the same hitting coach that helped him "unlock" the power in his swing. His confidence is at an all time high as a player.

This deal to me is a bit of a gamble by the Boy Wonder. We all know that is what he has always said he needs to do to compete in this division. The Morrow for League trade was a gamble. The Gonzalez for Escobar trade was a gamble. The Gose for Wallace trade was a gamble. The Marcum for Lawrie trade was - you guessed it - a gamble. All of those guys, fair or not had question marks about their character or their game when we got them.

The difference with J-Bau is that he has been with us since the end of the 2008 season. He has had well over 1000 at bats in a Blue Jays uniform. The organization has gotten a chance to know him as a player and a person. He is an asset in the club house. He can communicate with every player on the team. There are no surprises with him like there was with Lawrie and Podsednik. On a somewhat more comparable scale, think about what is going on right now with Miggy and the Tigers. They gave away a decent haul and had to take on Dontrelle Willis just to get their hands on him. Then they pay all that cash to extend him only to find out he has a bit of a (reoccurring) drinking problem.

Some dick named J.P. traded Robinson Diaz for Jose Bautista. Straight up. Give credit where it's do.

Anyways, once the dollars and term of the deal was officially announced I went straight over to Cot's for some comparables. This made me feel much better.

I would take his deal - all things considered - over many on this list. It also doesn't prevent us from going out and adding another top dollar guy in the future.

Please note:

- These salary figures include the buyout amounts, which would have to be deducted if the option is exercised.

- In the interests of comparing apples to apples, I did not include pitchers.

Alex Rodriguez 3b
10 years/$275M (2008-17)

27.5M average salary over the life of the deal.
He was 32 when he signed this deal.

Joe Mauer c
8 years/$184M (2011-18)

23M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Mark Teixeira 1b
8 years/$180M (2009-16)

22.5M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Ryan Howard 1b

3 years/$54M (2009-11)
5 years/$125M (2012-16), plus 2017 option at $23M

22.375M
He will be 38 if the option is picked up.

Carl Crawford lf
7 years/$142M (2011-17)

20.286M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Miguel Cabrera 1b
8 years/$152.3M (2008-15)

19.038M

He was only 25 years old when he signed this deal.

Jayson Werth rf
7 years/$126M (2011-17)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

VernonWells of
7 years/$126M (2008-14)

18M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Torii Hunter of
5 years/$90M(2008-12)

18M
He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Ichiro Suzuki rf
5 years/$90M (2008-12)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Beltran of
7 years/$119M (2005-11)

17M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Matt Holliday lf
7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option at $17M

17.143M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Derek Jeter ss
3 years/$51M (2011-13), plus 2014 player option at $8M

17M
He will be a 40 year old free agent after he exercises his option.

Alfonso Soriano lf
8 years/$136M (2007-14)

17M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Lee of
6 years/$100M (2007-12)

16.667M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Jason Bay of
4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option at $17M

16.5M
He will be 35 if the option is picked up.

Michael Young inf
5 years/$80M (2009-13)

16M

He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Adrian Beltre 3b
5 years/$80M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $16M

16M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Troy Tulowitzki ss
10 years/$157.75M (2011-20), plus 2021 club option at $15M

15.775M
He will be 36 if the option is picked up.

Prince Fielder 1b
1 year/$15.5M (2011)
15.5M
He will be a free agent at 27 years old.

Aramis Ramirez 3b
5 years/$75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option at $16M

15M
He will be 34 if the option is picked up.

Albert Pujols 1b
7 years/$100M (2004-10), plus 2011 club option at $16M

14.286M
He is in line for one hell of a 32nd birthday present.

Travis Hafner dh
4 years/$57M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option at $13M

14.25M
He will be 36 if the option is exercised.

Chipper Jones 3b
3 years/$42M (2010-12), plus 2013 option at $7M

14M
He will be 41 if the option is exercised.

J.D. Drew of
5 years/$70M (2007-11)

14M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Adam Dunn 1b-of
4 years/$56M (2011-14)

14M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Todd Helton 1b
9 years/$141.5M (2003-11), plus 2012 club option
2 years/$9.9M (2012-13)

13.764M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

Justin Morneau 1b
6 years/$80M (2008-13)

13.333
He will be 32 when this deal expires.

Jorge Posada c
4 years/$52.4M (2008-11)

13.1M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

David Ortiz 1b/dh
4 years/$52M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option at $12.5M

13M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Jose Bautista 3b-of

5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 club option

13M
He will be 35 years old if the option is picked up.

Victor Martinez c-1b
4 years/$50M (2011-14)

12.5M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Paul Konerko 1b
3 years/$37.5M (2011-13)

12.5M

He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Dan Uggla 2b
5 years/$62M (2011-15)

12.4M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Chase Utley 2b

7 years/$85M (2007-13)

12.143M

He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Kosuke Fukudome of
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Aaron Rowand of
5 years/$60M (2008-12)

12M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Josh Hamilton of
2 years/$24M (2011-12)

12M
He will be 31 when this deal expires.

Carlos Guillen 2b
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M

He will be 35 when this deal expires.

I completely understand why so many people hate this deal. But I figure those are most likely the same people that hated on Bautista the entire 2010 season. Yes, it was improbable what he did. But he still did it. And that is one hell of a ceiling for a player offensively. Never mind the fact that he can play a serviceable 3rd base or right field for the team, right now. Near the end of the deal you could see him make the move to 1st base if need be.

Just one more thing everyone, please refrain from heaping all these expectations on him. I know it's what we do and it will be hard but.....try.

Weekly Round Up : Apr. 12 - 18

Please consider this your required reading for the week.  Inflatable Raft met his agent for the first time at a Hooter's in Cancun.  Sweet.

Courtesy of MLBTR:

Toronto's supporters can still hope, though. If Wells hits well this year and has healthy enough legs underneath him to impress scouts and turn around his defensive numbers, teams may be willing to trade for Wells and pick up some of the money he's owed. Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark Kotsay and Rick Ankiel lead the next crop of free agent center fielders, so teams aren't about to find elite solutions on the open market. The Blue Jays will not be able to trade Wells without paying the vast majority of his contract, but they can dream about a deal that allows them to shed $10-20MM.

Trade Vernon?  Is anyone still interested in this idea after his hot start?

Courtesy of MILB.com:

Starting ... relieving, it doesn't seem to matter what the role is to Luis Perez of the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. The 25-year-old left-hander was used for three hitless innings of relief on Opening Day, and he made his first start of the season Tuesday against the host Reading Phillies. The results were the same -- Perez was unhittable both times.

Luis Perez is on the 40 man roster.  He wouldn't be there if he sucked.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star:

There are mixed reviews on Hechavarria as a defender, but the fact is he is now on the clock, having been signed and optioned to the minors. The Jays paid him an up-front signing bonus of $4 million, with $500,000 for 2010 and the rest staggered over the next three years (2011-13). The $4.5 million will count as major-league payroll pushing the Jays' 2010 total up over $66 million. Using his first of three options this year means that he is being fast-tracked to the majors. He needs to be on the 25-man roster by Opening Day of 2013 or he will have to be placed on waivers and likely claimed. But by all reports that is not going to happen. The more likely scenario is that he is the Jays starting shortstop early in the 2011 season with John McDonald as his tutor. 

Dick fucked up the story (again) and needed to be corrected by someone that hasn't lost their mind.  Click here for his correction tweet.

Courtesy of Joe Cowley @ Chicago Sun-Times

Forget the obvious in failing attendance and a shrinking Blue Jays payroll. You can flip on the hotel television and skim through the stations to get the pulse of what's going on. It's NHL, junior hockey, college hockey, high school hockey, Justin Bieber, Canadian Olympians, and more hockey.
Somewhere between celebrity Texas hold 'em tournaments and MuchMusic videos, you might, just might, get a Jays highlight.
After Tuesday's game, a fan asked a local talk show host if building a new stadium would help. Even the host -- Canadian, I'm guessing -- admitted that no one would care after a year.

This guy got destroyed on twitter by the Toronto faithful.  I hit him up with this.

Courtesy of Jeremy Sandler @ National Post:

The article also relied on quotes from Alex Rios, a former Blue Jay who was booed lustily during this week's series, and White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and pitcher Freddy Garcia, both Venezuelans.
It did not offer a chance for anyone currently with the Blue Jays to respond, though a response of sorts did come immediately with several unflattering revisions to the writer's Wikipedia entry. Cowley was also taken to task by Blue Jays fans on Twitter, who created the hashtag #WhyJoeCowleyHatesToronto to track their collective efforts.

By the time this story was published, most of us had had enough.      

Courtesy of FanGraphs:

Fred Lewis is pretty clearly a Major League quality player. In 1,048 plate appearances in the major leagues since 2006, Lewis has recorded a .277/.355/.420 line, showcasing good plate discipline and slightly below average power. His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Courtesy of Beyond The Boxscore:

Toronto almost definitely isn't going to continue to play as well as they have so far this season, but they continue to show that they're in a better position than many made them out to be a few months ago. For practically nothing, the Blue Jays managed to get their hands on a useful player with some team control left. Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos has made a pretty good impression so far in his tenure replacing J.P. Ricciardi, and that should continue with nice moves like this.

Both of these pieces discuss the Fred Lewis trade which is tough to do considering we have not actually completed the trade. 

Courtesy of Baseball America:

No. 4	BRAD MILLS, LHP	BLUE JAYS
Team: Triple-A Las Vegas (Pacific Coast) Age: 25 Why He's Here: 1-0, 0.79, 11 1/3 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 SO The Scoop: Life has been good lately for Blue Jays lefties. Ricky Romero nearly threw a no-hitter earlier in the week for Toronto, while Double-A New Hampshire's Luis Perez has been nearly unhittable as well (see below). Mills doesn't have plus velocity, but he's been able to get hitters out by locating and mixing his pitches, including a 70 changeup on the 20-80 scale and a sharp curveball.
2010 Stats

No. 8	TRAVIS D'ARNAUD, C	BLUE JAYS
Team: high Class A Dunedin (Florida State) Age: 21 Why He's Here: .400/.406/.667 (12-for-30), 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB The Scoop: When you're involved in a series of trades involving Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Brett Wallace, it's easy to get overlooked. Maybe that's the case with d'Arnaud, the former Phillies farmhand who went to the Blue Jays in the Halladay trade. His quick bat and hand-eye coordination make him difficult to strike out, and he's flashed power with two home run in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. With J.P. Arencibia's struggles in Triple-A, d'Arnaud is looking more and more like Toronto's catcher of the future.
2010 Stats

No. 13	LUIS PEREZ, LHP	BLUE JAYS
Team: Double-A New Hampshire (Eastern) Age: 24 Why He's Here: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO The Scoop: Sure, he's repeating Double-A, but Perez has thrown 10 innings of one-hit ball to start the season. Perez doesn't have the otherworldly strikeouts of some of the other pitchers on the Hot Sheet, but he gets his fastball up to 93-94 mph with heavy sink to keep the ball on the ground. He might fit in best as a reliever in the Blue Jays' bullpen down the road, but if he can continue to befuddle hitters he might get a chance as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
2010 Stats

3 of the top 13 players mentioned in the "Prospect Hot Sheet" represent your Toronto Blue Jays.  Everybody loves prospect porn!

Nerding it up in Simulation Nation:

According to OOTP11 your Toronto Blue Jays will go 5 - 1 this week coming up including a sweep of KC!
Of note: Shawn Camp was suspended 9 games for initiating an on field disturbance.
For the year: 11 - 8.  1 game behind Tampa Bay for first place.

According to MLB 10 The Show we will go 4 - 2 for the week. 
Of note: Brandon Morrow and Shawn Camp have 3 wins and are among the leaders in wins for the AL.
For the year: 13 - 6.  2 games behind Boston.

Alexis Israel Rios Cruz

Alex Rios is officially public enemy number 1.  We were able to get our hands on some private info that I wanted to share with you.....

First: His full name is Alexis Israel Rios Cruz.
Second: He was born in Coffee, Alabama.
Third: From what we can see, he likes white chicks.

Feel free to use this when heckling the shit out of him!  Your welcome.

Quickly:

Ian over at The Blue Jays Hunter put together a nice post that we had some input on.  Check it out.

Go Jays!

Exciting Home Opener Fact

The Jays 2010 schedule has been up for a while now, but it only occurred to me yesterday, that they open at home versus the Chicago White Sox. That's right folks, the Chicago White Sox. The Jays first ever home opener in 1977 was against those same White Sox. Dougie Ault clubbed two homers that day, who will ever forget that? A sore armed Bill Singer threw that first pitch, and later it was revealed that the home plate umpire was calling that son of a "b" a strike even if it had hopped 29 times before crossing the plate.

Flash forward to 2010. New season, new G.M., new lineup, hell, even a new play-by-play man. Our Jays open up, at home, hosting the Chicago White Sox, with a lineup featuring Jake Peavy & Mark Buehrle on the front end of a formidable rotation, Bubba Jenks on the back end, newly signed Mark Teahen and Juan Pierre and, yes folks, anchoring it all in Centre Field, Alex "Who Gives A Fuck?" Rios.

Am I the only one here who's chomping at the bit here to buy my tickets as close as I can to the toy helicopter flying douchebag and launch tirades at him for a full 9 innings? Hell, even his own manager isn't his biggest fan, when one White Sox beat write asked him what he saw so far from Rios, Ozzie Guillen retorted; "I'm seeing a lot of outs so far".

Here's what the statistician saw from Rios last year.

TEAM  G      AB   R     H    TB   2B   3B  HR  RBI     BB   SO   SB   CS    AVG.     OBP.    SLG.   OPS.

TOR   108  436  52 115 186   25    2    14    62     31    78    19    3     .264     .317     .427    .744

CWS    41     146  11  29   44     6     0     3      9       6       29     5     2     .199     .229     .301    .530

Yes sir, Ozzie was right. He did see a lot of outs. A whole shit bunch of them. 5 lbs in a 3 lb bag my farmer friends would say. His .264 AVG. looks down right silver sluggerish when compared to the move to U.S. Cellular field. Nice to see he kept his 1 K per 5 AB's consistent after the move.

Another 0-5 with 5 k's at the home opener is one of the small victories that Jays fans and media pundits alike will be talking about this season.

I'd break a lot of bats too, if they were my numbers. Or would I? I'm getting paid roughly the same money as Jesus, whether or not I'm hitting...so yes, "who gives a fuck" indeed.

When this is all said and done, I think, when any fan looks back, letting Rios go for nothing could possibly have been the best move of the J.P. era.