2011-02-22

OMG


In the last few days, a whole bunch of people have asked me about my thoughts on the Bautista deal. I must admit, they are still somewhat scattered.

When I first heard reports of the deal - 5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $13M - for the services of one Jose Bautista my initial reaction was: OMG what did we just do. Like most Toronto sports fans - more specifically Jays fans - long term deals give me the creeps. Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, BJ Ryan and Alex Israel Rios Cruz just to name a few that didn't work out so hot. You could say we have been a little snake bitten over the years.

Conversely all those seem to pale in comparison to the rage I felt when King Carlos was cut lose for nothing. Not even picks. How about the memories the name Chris Carpenter brings back. Remember what it was like to be cheap?

Argue all you want about true value but with both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols setting the market for free agents next year, you have to figure Bautista would have certainly cashed in. All he had to do was have a decent year and he would have made a great back up plan for whichever (large market) team missed out on the big boys. I don't think there is any way we get him to sign this same deal after the 2011 season has played it's course. He is still going to be hitting in the 3 hole in a power packed lineup that plays half it's games in a hitter friendly park. Christ, every park in the AL East minus Tampa Bay is a launching pad. He still has the same hitting coach that helped him "unlock" the power in his swing. His confidence is at an all time high as a player.

This deal to me is a bit of a gamble by the Boy Wonder. We all know that is what he has always said he needs to do to compete in this division. The Morrow for League trade was a gamble. The Gonzalez for Escobar trade was a gamble. The Gose for Wallace trade was a gamble. The Marcum for Lawrie trade was - you guessed it - a gamble. All of those guys, fair or not had question marks about their character or their game when we got them.


The difference with J-Bau is that he has been with us since the end of the 2008 season. He has had well over 1000 at bats in a Blue Jays uniform. The organization has gotten a chance to know him as a player and a person. He is an asset in the club house. He can communicate with every player on the team. There are no surprises with him like there was with Lawrie and Podsednik. On a somewhat more comparable scale, think about what is going on right now with Miggy and the Tigers. They gave away a decent haul and had to take on Dontrelle Willis just to get their hands on him. Then they pay all that cash to extend him only to find out he has a bit of a (reoccurring) drinking problem.

Some dick named J.P. traded Robinson Diaz for Jose Bautista. Straight up. Give credit where it's do.

Anyways, once the dollars and term of the deal was officially announced I went straight over to Cot's for some comparables. This made me feel much better.

I would take his deal - all things considered - over many on this list. It also doesn't prevent us from going out and adding another top dollar guy in the future.

Please note:

- These salary figures include the buyout amounts, which would have to be deducted if the option is exercised.
- In the interests of comparing apples to apples, I did not include pitchers.

Alex Rodriguez 3b
10 years/$275M (2008-17)
27.5M average salary over the life of the deal.
He was 32 when he signed this deal.

Joe Mauer c
8 years/$184M (2011-18)
23M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Mark Teixeira 1b
8 years/$180M (2009-16)
22.5M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Ryan Howard 1b
3 years/$54M (2009-11)
5 years/$125M (2012-16), plus 2017 option at $23M
22.375M
He will be 38 if the option is picked up.

Carl Crawford lf
7 years/$142M (2011-17)
20.286M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Miguel Cabrera 1b
8 years/$152.3M (2008-15)
19.038M
He was only 25 years old when he signed this deal.

Jayson Werth rf
7 years/$126M (2011-17)
18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

VernonWells of
7 years/$126M (2008-14)
18M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Torii Hunter of
5 years/$90M(2008-12)
18M
He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Ichiro Suzuki rf
5 years/$90M (2008-12)
18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Beltran of
7 years/$119M (2005-11)
17M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Matt Holliday lf
7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option at $17M
17.143M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Derek Jeter ss
3 years/$51M (2011-13), plus 2014 player option at $8M
17M
He will be a 40 year old free agent after he exercises his option.

Alfonso Soriano lf
8 years/$136M (2007-14)
17M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Lee of
6 years/$100M (2007-12)
16.667M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Jason Bay of
4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option at $17M
16.5M
He will be 35 if the option is picked up.

Michael Young inf
5 years/$80M (2009-13)
16M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Adrian Beltre 3b
5 years/$80M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $16M
16M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Troy Tulowitzki ss
10 years/$157.75M (2011-20), plus 2021 club option at $15M
15.775M
He will be 36 if the option is picked up.

Prince Fielder 1b
1 year/$15.5M (2011)

15.5M
He will be a free agent at 27 years old.

Aramis Ramirez 3b
5 years/$75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option at $16M
15M
He will be 34 if the option is picked up.

Albert Pujols 1b
7 years/$100M (2004-10), plus 2011 club option at $16M
14.286M
He is in line for one hell of a 32nd birthday present.

Travis Hafner dh
4 years/$57M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option at $13M
14.25M
He will be 36 if the option is exercised.

Chipper Jones 3b
3 years/$42M (2010-12), plus 2013 option at $7M
14M
He will be 41 if the option is exercised.

J.D. Drew of
5 years/$70M (2007-11)
14M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Adam Dunn 1b-of
4 years/$56M (2011-14)
14M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Todd Helton 1b
9 years/$141.5M (2003-11), plus 2012 club option
2 years/$9.9M (2012-13)
13.764M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

Justin Morneau 1b
6 years/$80M (2008-13)
13.333
He will be 32 when this deal expires.

Jorge Posada c
4 years/$52.4M (2008-11)
13.1M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

David Ortiz 1b/dh
4 years/$52M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option at $12.5M
13M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Jose Bautista 3b-of
5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 club option
13M
He will be 35 years old if the option is picked up.

Victor Martinez c-1b
4 years/$50M (2011-14)
12.5M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Paul Konerko 1b
3 years/$37.5M (2011-13)
12.5M
He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Dan Uggla 2b
5 years/$62M (2011-15)
12.4M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Chase Utley 2b
7 years/$85M (2007-13)
12.143M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Kosuke Fukudome of
4 years/$48M (2008-11)
12M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Aaron Rowand of
5 years/$60M (2008-12)
12M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Josh Hamilton of
2 years/$24M (2011-12)
12M
He will be 31 when this deal expires.

Carlos Guillen 2b
4 years/$48M (2008-11)
12M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

I completely understand why so many people hate this deal. But I figure those are most likely the same people that hated on Bautista the entire 2010 season. Yes, it was improbable what he did. But he still did it. And that is one hell of a ceiling for a player offensively. Never mind the fact that he can play a serviceable 3rd base or right field for the team, right now. Near the end of the deal you could see him make the move to 1st base if need be.

Just one more thing everyone, please refrain from heaping all these expectations on him. I know it's what we do and it will be hard but.....try.

3 comments:

  1. I think I remember something about how Anthopoulos was really bullish on getting Bautista from the Pirates and how it was his own personal project with Ricciardi's blessings.

    Sorry, it's been a while since I've seen the article.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I remember hearing that as well.

    ReplyDelete
  3. If you look at that list of salaries, and you look at those who make more than Jose, if he even regresses and goes .260/30/80, I think he's still worth it. In fact, I'm willing to bet he has a better statistical year than Jayson Werth, who makes a bit more coin. The length of the deal worries me a bit, but I do think that it takes some time for some guys to "get it". Hopefully he has found something that works for him at the plate and he sticks with it. And, he plays both 3B and RF well, has a cannon for an arm and has a bit of speed. If he has another big year, he may have priced himself out of the Jays range, so maybe it's a good thing we locked him up early....

    ReplyDelete

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