OMG

In the last few days, a whole bunch of people have asked me about my thoughts on the Bautista deal. I must admit, they are still somewhat scattered.

When I first heard reports of the deal - 5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $13M - for the services of one Jose Bautista my initial reaction was: OMG what did we just do. Like most Toronto sports fans - more specifically Jays fans - long term deals give me the creeps. Vernon Wells, Eric Hinske, BJ Ryan and Alex Israel Rios Cruz just to name a few that didn't work out so hot. You could say we have been a little snake bitten over the years.

Conversely all those seem to pale in comparison to the rage I felt when King Carlos was cut lose for nothing. Not even picks. How about the memories the name Chris Carpenter brings back. Remember what it was like to be cheap?

Argue all you want about true value but with both Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols setting the market for free agents next year, you have to figure Bautista would have certainly cashed in. All he had to do was have a decent year and he would have made a great back up plan for whichever (large market) team missed out on the big boys. I don't think there is any way we get him to sign this same deal after the 2011 season has played it's course. He is still going to be hitting in the 3 hole in a power packed lineup that plays half it's games in a hitter friendly park. Christ, every park in the AL East minus Tampa Bay is a launching pad. He still has the same hitting coach that helped him "unlock" the power in his swing. His confidence is at an all time high as a player.

This deal to me is a bit of a gamble by the Boy Wonder. We all know that is what he has always said he needs to do to compete in this division. The Morrow for League trade was a gamble. The Gonzalez for Escobar trade was a gamble. The Gose for Wallace trade was a gamble. The Marcum for Lawrie trade was - you guessed it - a gamble. All of those guys, fair or not had question marks about their character or their game when we got them.

The difference with J-Bau is that he has been with us since the end of the 2008 season. He has had well over 1000 at bats in a Blue Jays uniform. The organization has gotten a chance to know him as a player and a person. He is an asset in the club house. He can communicate with every player on the team. There are no surprises with him like there was with Lawrie and Podsednik. On a somewhat more comparable scale, think about what is going on right now with Miggy and the Tigers. They gave away a decent haul and had to take on Dontrelle Willis just to get their hands on him. Then they pay all that cash to extend him only to find out he has a bit of a (reoccurring) drinking problem.

Some dick named J.P. traded Robinson Diaz for Jose Bautista. Straight up. Give credit where it's do.

Anyways, once the dollars and term of the deal was officially announced I went straight over to Cot's for some comparables. This made me feel much better.

I would take his deal - all things considered - over many on this list. It also doesn't prevent us from going out and adding another top dollar guy in the future.

Please note:

- These salary figures include the buyout amounts, which would have to be deducted if the option is exercised.

- In the interests of comparing apples to apples, I did not include pitchers.

Alex Rodriguez 3b
10 years/$275M (2008-17)

27.5M average salary over the life of the deal.
He was 32 when he signed this deal.

Joe Mauer c
8 years/$184M (2011-18)

23M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Mark Teixeira 1b
8 years/$180M (2009-16)

22.5M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Ryan Howard 1b

3 years/$54M (2009-11)
5 years/$125M (2012-16), plus 2017 option at $23M

22.375M
He will be 38 if the option is picked up.

Carl Crawford lf
7 years/$142M (2011-17)

20.286M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Miguel Cabrera 1b
8 years/$152.3M (2008-15)

19.038M

He was only 25 years old when he signed this deal.

Jayson Werth rf
7 years/$126M (2011-17)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

VernonWells of
7 years/$126M (2008-14)

18M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Torii Hunter of
5 years/$90M(2008-12)

18M
He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Ichiro Suzuki rf
5 years/$90M (2008-12)

18M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Beltran of
7 years/$119M (2005-11)

17M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Matt Holliday lf
7 years/$120M (2010-16), plus 2017 option at $17M

17.143M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Derek Jeter ss
3 years/$51M (2011-13), plus 2014 player option at $8M

17M
He will be a 40 year old free agent after he exercises his option.

Alfonso Soriano lf
8 years/$136M (2007-14)

17M
He will be 38 when this deal expires.

Carlos Lee of
6 years/$100M (2007-12)

16.667M
He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Jason Bay of
4 years/$66M (2010-13), plus 2014 option at $17M

16.5M
He will be 35 if the option is picked up.

Michael Young inf
5 years/$80M (2009-13)

16M

He will be 36 when this deal expires.

Adrian Beltre 3b
5 years/$80M (2011-15), plus 2016 option at $16M

16M
He will be 37 if the option is picked up.

Troy Tulowitzki ss
10 years/$157.75M (2011-20), plus 2021 club option at $15M

15.775M
He will be 36 if the option is picked up.

Prince Fielder 1b
1 year/$15.5M (2011)
15.5M
He will be a free agent at 27 years old.

Aramis Ramirez 3b
5 years/$75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option at $16M

15M
He will be 34 if the option is picked up.

Albert Pujols 1b
7 years/$100M (2004-10), plus 2011 club option at $16M

14.286M
He is in line for one hell of a 32nd birthday present.

Travis Hafner dh
4 years/$57M (2009-12), plus 2013 club option at $13M

14.25M
He will be 36 if the option is exercised.

Chipper Jones 3b
3 years/$42M (2010-12), plus 2013 option at $7M

14M
He will be 41 if the option is exercised.

J.D. Drew of
5 years/$70M (2007-11)

14M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Adam Dunn 1b-of
4 years/$56M (2011-14)

14M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Todd Helton 1b
9 years/$141.5M (2003-11), plus 2012 club option
2 years/$9.9M (2012-13)

13.764M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

Justin Morneau 1b
6 years/$80M (2008-13)

13.333
He will be 32 when this deal expires.

Jorge Posada c
4 years/$52.4M (2008-11)

13.1M
He will be 39 when this deal expires.

David Ortiz 1b/dh
4 years/$52M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option at $12.5M

13M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Jose Bautista 3b-of

5 years/$65M (2011-15), plus 2016 club option

13M
He will be 35 years old if the option is picked up.

Victor Martinez c-1b
4 years/$50M (2011-14)

12.5M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Paul Konerko 1b
3 years/$37.5M (2011-13)

12.5M

He will be 37 when this deal expires.

Dan Uggla 2b
5 years/$62M (2011-15)

12.4M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Chase Utley 2b

7 years/$85M (2007-13)

12.143M

He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Kosuke Fukudome of
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M
He will be 34 when this deal expires.

Aaron Rowand of
5 years/$60M (2008-12)

12M
He will be 35 when this deal expires.

Josh Hamilton of
2 years/$24M (2011-12)

12M
He will be 31 when this deal expires.

Carlos Guillen 2b
4 years/$48M (2008-11)

12M

He will be 35 when this deal expires.

I completely understand why so many people hate this deal. But I figure those are most likely the same people that hated on Bautista the entire 2010 season. Yes, it was improbable what he did. But he still did it. And that is one hell of a ceiling for a player offensively. Never mind the fact that he can play a serviceable 3rd base or right field for the team, right now. Near the end of the deal you could see him make the move to 1st base if need be.

Just one more thing everyone, please refrain from heaping all these expectations on him. I know it's what we do and it will be hard but.....try.

Weekly Round Up : Feb. 22 - 28

Please consider this your required reading for the week: PhoulBallz.com: Spring Training Q&A with Travis D'Arnaud

Click here for your Toronto Blue Jays quotes of the week.

MLBTR put out it's offseason in review piece about your Toronto Blue Jays.  Did you know we spent a whopping $10.5 million on 4 major league free agents this winter?

Courtesy of King Jordan: 

You Don't Know Dick Griffin's cell phone ring is "Forever" by Drake.  I have been bouncing to this tune ever since the news came out.....

Courtesy of River Avenue Blues:

2010 Amateur Draft order is official.  We have 9 picks in the first three rounds and as mentioned earlier we have $16 million USD allocated to spend on the draft.

Courtesy of Minor League Ball:

Sleeper Alert List for 2010 

Robert Bell, RHP

Carlos Perez, C

Courtesy of Scott Carlson @ Sportsnet.ca:

Who hold the Blue Jays record for most stolen bases in a season?

Now, I'm thinking that most of you are Googling this furiously, but I'll save you the work. It was Dave Collins, or "Doc" as Rance Mulliniks usually refers to him, who swiped 60 bases way back in 1984 before a good chunk of you were even a twinkle in your parents' eyes. Since then, only Roberto Alomar (55 in 1993), Otis Nixon (54 in '96) and Shannon Stewart (51 in '98) have hit the half century mark.
Looking back at Blue Jays playoff teams of seasons past, speed was always part of the equation. A look at their five postseason appearances seasons tells us as much:

YEAR	STEALS	AL RANK	MLB RANK	RECORD
1985	144	2nd	6th	99-62
1989	144	4th	T-8th	89-73
1991	148	2nd	6th	91-71
1992	129	7th	T-11th	96-66
1993	170	1st	2nd	95-67

 Courtesy of Baseball Musings: 

Team Offense, Toronto Blue Jays

• Best lineup: 4.95 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 4.85 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.73 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.57 runs per game

What’s clear from looking at the nine likely hitters is that there is no great option at lead-off. I would put Lyle Overbay there, and so would the Line up Analysis Tool, based on the Marcels. The article talks about using Jose Bautista or Joey Gathright, but the better option probably is Travis Snider. The LAT likes Snider, too, as he’ comes up first in a number of the top lineups. On top of that, his recent minor league OBPs were good, and as he’s very young, he still has room for improvement.
As a whole, the lineup is poor. There are no great hitters, and three poor ones (Wells, Buck and Gonzalez). While the Blue Jays can hope for Wells to rebound, the longer it takes to happen, the less likely it becomes (think Eric Chavez). If the Jays are going to win with this lineup, they will need outstanding pitching, or a couple of career years from the hitters.

Courtesy of Hardball Talk:

Who will win the closer battle between Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor and Scott Downs?

In the grand scheme of things, it hardly figures to matter; the Jays are a fourth- of fifth-place team and it's quite possible that none of the three will still be around in 2011. Fantasy leaguers, though, may feel differently.
Manager Cito Gaston had made it pretty clear that he wasn't very comfortable with either Frasor or Downs in the closer's role, necessitating an offseason addition. Gregg was viewed as a proven alternative, even though he blew seven saves last season and nine in 2008. Frasor and Downs are superior pitchers, but both have more experience setting up than they do closing. Odds are that Gregg will be handed most of the save chances initially. Of course, that was also the case the last two years and he went on to lose the job both times.

Courtesy of Baseball Musings:

Players A to Z, Jason Frasor

Jason Frasor pitches in relief for the Toronto Blue Jays. Jason brings an excellent strikeout rate, a decent walk rate and an outstanding home run rate to the table. Jason turned in the best season of his career in 2009 by greatly reducing his walk rate, his 2.5 BB per nine IP in 2009 was 1.4 BB per nine below his career mark.
Jason was used in the closer role at times and converted 11 of 14 save opportunities. That wasn’t enough for him to get the job going into 2010, but he’s one of the candidates the Jays are testing. If he keeps his walks low, I can see him taking the job.
Pitching in a very tough division, he dominates the Red Sox, Rays and Orioles, but the Yankees hit him very well. The Yankees have been able to throw a lot of lefties against him, and they’ve done very well.

Courtesy of CBS Sports:

Fantasy Analysis: For closers, a manager's confidence goes a long way. Gaston might ultimately opt for Kevin Gregg because he has more experience in the role, but Jason Frasor already has his foot in the door and is worth a flier late in mixed leagues as a result. Even if he retains the job, though, you can't expect him to get 30 saves pitching for the out-of-contention Blue Jays.

Courtesy of CBS Sports:

Fantasy Analysis: Whenever a manager starts praising a reliever's versatility, it usually means he'd rather not confine the reliever to the closer role. Considering Scott Downs is the only left-hander of the bunch, he's a long shot to close anyway. He'd post decent peripherals as a setup man, but nothing to make him more than an AL-only option.

Courtesy of Jeff Schultz @ AJC

Hinske brings his ‘living canvas’ tattoos to Braves

“It’s just traditional Japanese styling tattoo,” Hinske said. “I got a tattoo of a cross on my left arm when my grandfather died and I liked it so then I got one of a dragon on my other arm. I just liked the way it looked. Then I got addicted to it and I couldn’t stop. I had my arms and chest plates done so I just wanted to tie it all together so it looked like one big piece. So I just got this big Japanese warrior and this snake wrapped around with the snake’s mouth open, with wind and clouds and stuff. It’s pretty cool.”

This guy is out there.  I mean way out there.  I absolutely LOVE making fun of Hinske and rarely pass up the opportunity.....this time though I have to post a comment from the article that made me laugh out loud.  

Yep

February 25th, 2010
3:33 pm

Hopefully there’s a clause in his contract that his deal is null and void if he contracts Hepatitis.

Courtesy of The National Post:

The G8 and G20 summits this summer will be the largest security event in Canadian history, officials said today.

The federal government announced last week it would host the G20 at the Metro Toronto Convention Centre June 26-27, despite the city’s expressed wishes that it be at Exhibition Place.

A blueprint of Toronto’s security perimeter has not been divulged, but there is already a glimpse of the force being amassed to protect those coming to and living in Toronto: the federal government’s “Integrated Security Unit” will include Toronto police, RCMP, the OPP, the Canadian Forces and Peel Region Police.

“There will be security, there will be disruptions,” Mayor David Miller told councillors yesterday.

Courtesy of Fantasy Fanhouse:

The Breakout

You may not like trying to spell it, but you'd better get used to seeing Marc Rzepczynski's name. Considering he didn't come with much (if any) fanfare, it would be easy to dismiss his 11-start debut in 2009. If you do that, you may miss the next great breakout pitcher.

Rzepczynski (or the RZep, if you want to go a little Wu-Tang on it and ignore that the 'R' is silent) has produced fantastic numbers at every level of his professional career. In the minors, he never had an ERA above 3.00. He always struck out over a batter per inning. He almost never surrendered a homer, allowing just five in over 250 minor-league innings. High strikeouts and low homers allowed? Sounds like an ace in the making to me!

Courtesy of Yahoo!

Top Candidate To Surprise:  CF Vernon Wells has not had a good and injury-free season since 2006, when he hit .303 with 32 home runs and 106 RBI. Last year, in 158 games, he hit .260 with 15 homers and 66 RBI. It wasn’t until after the season, though, that Wells revealed he was bothered throughout the season by a wrist injury, one that was fixed in the offseason. If Wells, 31, can stay healthy, he still has the tools to put up some quality numbers.

Top Candidate To Disappoint:  1B Lyle Overbay hasn’t been the same player at the plate since his right hand was fractured by a pitch in June 2007. In the last two seasons, Overbay hasn’t produced the kind of numbers needed from the position—.270, 15 homers, 60 RBI in 2008 and .265, 16, 64 in 2009. He has been woeful against left-handed pitching, to the point where manager Cito Gaston last year benched him against lefties and thought that he lacked aggressiveness at the plate. Overbay claimed the reduced playing time affected his timing. Overbay will earn $7 million in the final year of his contract, and the Jays will be looking to move him through the spring and up to the trading deadline.
 

Courtesy of Mop Up Duty:

I know we’re supposed to suck and all this season but the fantasy community is giving the Toronto Blue Jays absolutely no love. Only three players rank within the top 200 (average) for standard 5×5 roto leagues. Here’s a table of the top Jays fantasy players for 2010 from four of the most well known fantasy services. The average applies only to players that ranked on all four lists:

Players	Bloomberg	ESPN	Rotowire	Yahoo!	Average
	Top 375	Top 575	Top 350	Top 550	(made all 4 lists
Adam Lind	53	41	59	59	53
Aaron Hill	76	76	45	45	60.5
Vernon Wells	161	190	187	186	181
Kevin Gregg	196	247	X	353	X
Edwin Encarnacion	222	268	245	282	254.25
Ricky Romero	244	X	X	485	X
Randy Ruiz	279	568	294	300	360.25
Jason Frasor	298	240	342	278	289.5
Travis Snider	303	280	241	292	279
Lyle Overbay	315	350	307	399	342.75
Scott Downs	360	250	282	260	288
Dustin McGowan	368	X	X	549	X
Shaun Marcum	X	318	X	445	X

Courtesy of King Jordan:

Every Saturday from now until the end of camp, I plan on including my current predictions for the Opening Day roster. Two days into full-squad workouts, here is who I believe will be among the 25 players headed north:
PITCHERS -- Starters: Ricky Romero, Shaun Marcum, Brandon Morrow, Brian Tallet, Marc Rzepczynski. Relievers: Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Shawn Camp, Jesse Carlson, Casey Janssen, Jeremy Accardo
POS. PLAYERS: John Buck, Jose Molina, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Alex Gonzalez, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Vernon Wells, Jose Bautista, John McDonald, Joey Gathright, Randy Ruiz.

The Hawk flys solo into the Hall

Andre Dawson has been inducted into The Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.  The ceremony is scheduled to take place on July 25th.  This is great news for me, as I am the proud owner of an autographed ball bearing his name as well as a certificate of authenticity.  If you want one for yourself, The Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame has about a dozen on sale for $65.  You can contact them at: baseball@baseballhalloffame.ca of by calling 1-877-250-2255.  I hope he goes in as an Expo.

Pitcher Bert Blyleven got shafted.  He missed being inducted by a slim margin of fives votes.  Of the 539 ballots submitted, five were left blank.  He only has 2 years of eligibility left.  He's gotta be pissed. 

Our boy catch the taste Robbie received 73.7% of the vote, needing only 75% to get in.  It was the closest time a first-year candidate ever came in history without being elected.  He is a lock.  I have a great Alomar story to tell, but it is certainly worthy of it's own post.  Look for that in the future.

Quickly



Doughboy has agreed to a contract with the Atlanta Braves for the 2010 season.  I hope the "utilityman" stayed away from his regular off season diet of donuts and pork grinds because he has to pass a physical before the deal becomes official.  If you can believe it, they are planning to use the World Series good luck charm at first base in a possible platoon with another former Blue Jay Troy Glaus.  Unfortunatley, the Braves are not scheduled to be in town next season so I won't be able to use my sign.  Let's all hope he gets traded back to the AL at the deadline to a team in the race.  Wouldn't it be wild if that was us or the Orioles?  No chance but history is on our side.....

Remembering: Doughboy

Eric Hinske AND cash was traded August 17, 2006 to the Boston Red Sucks for a player to be named later OR cash considerations.

Personally, I'm still waiting for the player to be named later.....Officially, he was listed as purchased.

Think about that for a second.  We gave him away with cash.  They give us an undisclosed amount of the cash back.  So we just gave him away then.

And he got one of these:

And he's due another one at the start of this year for his efforts in the 2009 World Series.  Fuck me.