The Black Hole

Image courtesy of After Death

So what happens if your Toronto Blue Jays don’t re-sign Type A free agent Mr. Kelly Johnson to play 2B next season? 

Since the free agent class this year is.....well.....pretty weak and the farm system can only be described as "noticeably thin" at the position - even that might be too complimentary - we somehow found the initiative to examine all the other rosters in baseball and cherry pick a few potential candidates for his replacement if when the brain trust decides to explore the trade route. 

Like Northwood Mortgage, we’re working hard just for you!

A few things to consider:

• Most MLB second basemen were either drafted or developed as shortstops. That being said there was absolutely zero chance we were going to look over all the Minor League players in every system, especially the ones below A Ball and try to guess who won’t stick at SS. As such, only players listed as 2B were included.

• Whomever is picked up will probably end up hitting 8th or 9th in the order. Therefore it isn't downright essential that an impact player is acquired. That's quite a luxury.

• All players in tiers 1, 2, 3 and 4 are currently listed on their team’s 40 man roster while the players in tier 5 are not.

Tier 1: The studs

These players are the young, controllable, high upside type guys that any GM craves. They project as starters right now.

Dustin Ackley 1988/02/26 1st round 2nd pick 2009 Only on this list because you’d call me stupid if he wasn’t. Pretty much untouchable right now. Bat control is fantastic. He will hit in the Majors.

Danny Espinosa 1987/04/25 3rd round 2008 This guy can hit bombs and steal bases at the big league level. Contact? Not so much. Yet.

Neil Walker 1985/09/10 1st round 11th pick 2004 In his first full season he played 159 games. A big body and a big bat to match.

 

Jose Altuve 1990/05/06 amateur free agent 2007 Clearly rushed up to the big league level but can you really blame them?


Tier 2: The buy low candidates

These guys are still starting on their clubs. For now. 

Gordon Beckham 1986/09/16 1st round 8th pick 2008 Pretty much all of his offensive numbers have been in a steady decline since his rookie campaign. Plus defender. 

Darwin Barney 1985/11/08 4th round 2007 Never really hit for a lot of power. Pretty much an all around unspectacular player yet still serviceable.


Tier 3: The best of the rest 

AKA the Marco Scutaro category

Current back up, platoon or utility men.

Trevor Plouffe 1986/06/15 1st round 20th pick 2004 He hit 15 bombs in less than 200 at bats in the International League (AAA)

Eric Sogard 1986/05/22 2nd round 2007 Walks more than he strikes out. Looks like a doubles machine in waiting. 

Jason Donald 1984/09/04 3rd round 2006 Doesn’t look like he will stick at SS too much longer. Good/great contact skill.

Robert Andino 1984/04/25 2nd round 2002 Does everything well and nothing superb. Can still play a legit big league SS. Arb eligible for the first time.

Jed Lowrie 1984/04/17 1st round 45th pick 2005 Lack of production in the Minors leads me to believe he’s a little overrated. Switch hitter who kills lefties. Also arb eligible for the first time.

Sean Rodriguez 1985/04/26 3rd round 2003 Might benefit from playing only one position as opposed to all over the field. Can he hit RHP? It wouldn't hurt to give him the opportunity to find out.

Ryan Raburn 1981/04/17 5th round 2001 Has never really been given a fair chance as an everyday player. Decent pop. Oldest guy in any tier. 

Eric Young Jr 1985/05/25 30th round 2003 Only played 43 innings at 2B last year. Can flat out fly on the bases when he somehow manages to get on them.

Jonathan Herrera 1984/11/03 amateur free agent 2002 Is a tad undersized and the power numbers reflect it. Might have some rage issues.

Chris Getz 1983/08/30 4th round 2005 Non tender candidate. No power what so ever.

Tier 4: The 2013/14 type guys

How many option years - if any – these players have left would need to be known prior to completing a trade. Some of these guys might be ready to start in 2012. That was a purposefully vague sentence. A full or even partial year in AAA would probably be beneficial for the player and Super 2 is a bitch.

Alexi Amarista 1989/04/06 amateur free agent 2007 He’s hit at every level in the Minors despite his size. Blocked behind a whole bunch of Scioscia-esqe veterans in LAA.

Steve Lombardozzi 1988/09/20 19th round 2008 Played over 125 games the last three years in a row. Above average speed. Switch hitter.

Logan Forsythe 1987/01/14 1st round 46th pick 2008 Rocked a .445 OBP in the PCL as a 24 year old. Can play a little 3B if need be. 

Adrian Cardenas 1987/10/10 1st round 37th pick 2006 Walks almost as much as he strikes out. 

DJ LeMahieu 1988/07/13 2nd round 2009 Great contact hitter. Plenty of time for the power to develop from doubles to round trippers.

Ryan Adams 1987/04/21 2nd round 2006 Solid looking power numbers in the Minors Leagues. 

Cord Phelps 1987/01/23 3rd round 2008 Made 5 errors in only 75 chances with the glove. The stick looks nice.

Taylor Green 1986/11/02 25th round 2005 This Canadian boy from out West can swing it and take a walk. 

Eric Farris 1986/03/03 4th round 2007 Managed a measly .689 OPS in the PCL? Is that even possible?
 

Harold Garcia 1986/10/25 non drafted free agent 2004 Missed most of 2011 with a knee injury. Never played above AA. Decent bat.

Tommy Field 1987/02/22 24th round 2008 Made the jump from AA to the Majors probably because of his glove. His power looks legit. So do the strike outs.

Ivan De Jesus 1987/01/05 2nd round 2005 Consistent success at every stop in the Minors. 

Jeudy Valdez 1989/05/05 non drafted free agent in 2005ish. Played SS all this year and 2B all last year. Shown some decent pop and better wheels. Dominican birth certificate could be a concern. Needs some time in AA but could move fast.

Tier 5: The prospects

We only took our search as far down as High A ball. Had to draw the line somewhere. Feel free to tell us all about the guys we missed. 

Henry Rodriguez 1990/02/09 non drafted free agent 2007 Hasn’t posted an average under .300 since 2007. Say what you want about batting average as a stat but that just has to count for something. Never played above the AA level. Great power/speed combo. Switch hitter. Consider him the priority player on this list. 

Greg Miclat

Kevin Russo
Corban Joseph
Walter Ibarra
Ronnier Mustelier
David Adams
Cole Figueroa
Tyler Bortnick
Alden Carrithers
Tyler Kuhn
Anthony Seratelli 
Ryan Mount
Michael Wing
Renny Osuna
Davis Stoneburner
Erik Morrison
Matt Young
Philip Gosselin
Jim Negrych
Reese Havens
Jeff Kobernus
Logan Watkins
Brandon Wikoff
Jose Thompson
Scooter Gennett
Brock Holt
Jarek Cunningham
Eric Duncan
Jose Garcia
Greg Garcia
Tony Abreu
Mark Hallberg
David Nick
James Cesario
Joe Becker
Jaime Pedroza
Dean Anna
Vincent Belnome
Jonathan Galvez
Charlie Culberson

Ryan Cavan

Who would you realistically like to see play 2B in a Blue Jays uniform next year? 

Do you have your eye on a specific player that we either mentioned or didn't?

Really Early Elias Free Agent Rankings

 
In a much earlier post, I discussed the Elias Free Agent Rankings in detail.  Consider it a prerequisite for this post.

MLBTR has put up some "projected" rankings.  I'm not sure what formula they used, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of said formula.  But it is something and it effects some potential moves for your Toronto Blue Jays moving forward this season. 

First we will head over to Cot's Baseball Contracts and get some data on our players contract status.  From that I can say that the following players are able to file for free agency in November, 15 days after the World Series ends:

Lyle Overbay
Scott Downs
Jason Frasor
John Buck

The following players have an option that may be exercised for the 2011 campaign.

Kevin Gregg
Jose Molina
Alex Gonzalez

The rest of our boys are under club control next season.  Let's not speculate about the options to much because you have to think the only one that will be debated is Kevin Gregg's: 

11:$4.5M club option or $8.75M club option for 2011-12 ($0.75M buyout) 

I guess the brain trust has to decide if they want to pay him 8.75M over the next two years to help out the back end of the pen.  Based on his early performance I have to say that seems reasonable.  But there are still 123 games to go and a lot can happen.

Anyways, back to the point.  According to the data provided by MLBTR here are the rankings for our actual free agents:

Lyle O for today: 42.222
Scott Downs: 69.887
Jason Frasor: 67.029
John Buck: 58.036 

Analysis: 

Lyle fucking Overbay is a whopping 18 points away from being a type B free agent.  If he doesn't pick it up SUBSTANTIALLY then when he signs with another team we will receive no compensation ie draft pick(s).  He may be lucky to get a major league contract offer at this rate.  As we learned from the Rod Barajas signing, a major league deal must be inked in order to receive compensation.  All hopes of getting a decent prospect in return for this stiff via trade just went out the window.  Which begs the following questions: 

Why the fuck are we still running him out there everyday and in the five hole no less?  
Is The Cito doing a Kevin (scab) Millar circa late 2009 and giving him playing time so he can get a decent contract for another team next year? 

 
John Buck is just barely a type B.  Which is good news.  He is going to have to keep up the production in order to hold onto that status.  If we offered arbitration and he declines the offer, then we could get a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the 2011 Amateur Draft.  He is making a tidy 2 million this year.  There are no guarantees he declines the arbitration offer which would cockblock our catching prospects for another year.     

Scott Downs is a borderline type A free agent which is a double edged sword.  We would receive the signing teams first round pick, unless it is protected (top 15) then we receive a second rounder, and a sandwich pick.  Most teams do not want to give that much up to sign a reliever especially one that is not a closer.  Provided he maintains that status he may get squeezed on the open market.  It may end up that we resign him for cheap just before spring training.  It would be preferred that he drops a bit in the rankings and becomes a type B.  That would make the decision to offer him arbitration much easier.

Jason Frasor is in the upper tier of type B guys.  It would be great if he stays that way.

Kevin Gregg is an interesting thought exercise.  He is a projected type A and if he keeps mowing down hitters and racking up saves, he will remain that way.  Do you decline the options, offer him free agency and then hope he declines?  What if he accepts?  Do you exercise the options and keep him around through the 2012 season?  Or do you trade him and demand a high level prospect in return?  

Conclusion:

Type B relievers are the way to go.  We can demand a sandwich type prospect in return at the deadline and expect to get it.  Travis d'Arnaud was a sandwich pick.  Downs and Frasor could net this return.  I have to figure that Downs will drop in the rankings and I'm pretty sure he won't get many save opportunities this year in order to ensure it.

If some team wants Buck and is willing to pay that price we have to ship him out.  We get nothing for him if he drops out of type B status, which is possible but not likely.  I have the feeling he accepts the arbitration offer.  No real reason to support that but I think he wants to be here.

Kevin Gregg is the X factor.  His free agent status and contract make it very difficult to say what his future will be with the club.  I think that if he keeps the type A status then we exercise his options.  If he drops to type B, then we decline and offer him arbitration.  And if someone offers us something good for him then we trade him.   

Alex Gonzalez will be a Blue Jay in 2011.  We can talk about him later.

Rumor Mill

I feel as thought I owe all of you an explanation.  We here at 1bluejaysway try our best to stay on top of everything Blue Jays and live up to our slogan: All Jays. All the time.  However, it is very difficult to "break" a story in these times we live in.  As such, you may have noticed that we are reluctant to post something about a rumor.  It is not that we avoid staying current, the truth is quite the opposite, it is just there are many other sites dedicated to this and their teams do a fantastic job.  When I was designing the site, my goal was to provide as many feeds and links dedicated to this as possible so that you, the reader, could get this vital real time information.  I think it is just as fun as the next guy to speculate about rumors involving the Blue Jays and their potential impact on the organization.  The problem with it is this: It takes a while to post something worth reading and it seems like a waste when it turns out to be about something that never happens.  It is our intent here to provide detailed analysis of the transactions after they become official.

When your Toronto Blue Jays traded the Doctor, you might remember there was whispers of a failed physical involving one of the players.  It turned out not to be true and the deal went through as reported.  Also, there was much speculation in the media that we were the front runners in the Cuban lottery, which turned out to be false.  We waited until all the players involved in the Brandon for Brandon trade had been announced.  This was particularly difficult because the term prospect was used to describe what turned out to be Johermyn Chavez.

Which brings me to the infamous Ramon Castro signing.  He never was a Blue Jay and just recently re-signed with the White Sox.  His ordeal brought back memories of the Rod Barajas handshake agreement with J.P. in the winter of 2006 that never materialized.

So you may be asking yourself by now: What the fuck is the point?  Well here goes.  When this little piece of news hit the hot stove, that Carlos Delgado was being scouted by the Jays, Nemesis Enforcer and I spent the better part of the day discussing every possible topic regarding this issue.  Where was he going to hit in the line up?  What would the length of the deal be?  Would he accept a bench role?  What would we be forced to do with the impending Overbay deal?  What would we do with Lind.....etc.  We were in agreement that if Delgado re-signed with us then there would be a domino effect on the rest of the team.  He sat down and typed out a beauty post, only to wake up to this report a day later.  Talk about a piss me off.  I feel like it needs to be added to the site, even though it now seems out of date.  Here goes.....

UNTITLED:

When I was first approached by Golden Arm about this blog he mentioned to me about rumors and how he really didn’t want to discuss them because it was mostly a lot of hot air.  He wondered what more we could bring to the table?  What more than the other established sites wouldn't have already talked about already?

Then Monday night I read the rumor that most of you probably read on mlbtraderumors.com, “Blue Jays, Mets Interested In Delgado”  My first thought was, oh fuck, here we go…does no one remember the great Frank Thomas experiment of 2007? The Frank Thomas who just won the comeback player of the year at the time I might add.  So then I got curious and looked up their stats in the year before they joined the Jays, so Frank 2006 and Carlos 2008 (his last full season), Carlos has missed most of 2009 with a hip injury.  I should also point out that AOL Reporter Ed Price has said that Delgado "is not moving well" and would be a good fit to play for Toronto and DH.  So right, the stats, fuck I get distracted easily sometimes.

Frank
Top of Form Year Bottom of Form	Team			League		G	AB		R				H				2B	3B		HR			RBI			BB		SO		SB		SLG		AVG Bottom of Form
Top of Form 2006 Bottom of Form	Oakland			AL		137	466		77			126					11	0			39		114			81		81		0		0.545		0.270 Bottom of Form
						159	541		89			146					13	0		45			132			94		94		0
Carlos
Top of Form Year Bottom of Form	Team			League		G	AB		R			H					2B	3B		HR			RBI			BB		SO		SB		SLG		AVG Bottom of Form
Top of Form 2008 Bottom of Form	NY Mets			NL		159	598		96			162					32	1		38			115			72		124		1		0.518		0.271 Bottom of Form

The second line of the Frank's stats are projected to 159 games to match Carlos’ 2008 season just to compare apples to apples.  Frank had a good year in 2006 there is no doubt, but so did Carlos in 2008.  Frank was 39 when he signed his deal with us, Carlos is currently is 37.  So what the fuck?  What’s the diff here?

Today I had a chat with Golden Arm about this situation and we couldn’t come up with a good answer with what to do here.  What’s the advantage of bringing in Carlos this season in which we are “supposed” to be rebuilding?  Different topics were thrown around, butt in seats, an actual leader in the clubhouse since Vernon doesn’t want to hold that job and then there is Vernon.  Would Carlos take some of the offensive burden off Vernon?  A legitimate left handed power bat possibly to hit behind him in the lineup.  It really could only be a 1 year deal, plus maybe an option and I’m guessing lots of incentives.  Butts in the seats? I don’t buy that argument at all, the Jays only got an average of 18000 fans out to see Roy’s final 3 starts as a Jay.  If people aren’t going to see the best pitcher to pull on a Jays jersey, they won’t come for Carlos.  If people aren’t going to cram the Skydome to see Rocket Roger Clemens and watch some of the greatest pitching seasons ever in the Jays history, they won’t come for Carlos.  I know The Cito, Beeston and the old logo are back and we’ve got this Flashback Friday thing.  But Carlos by himself won’t be enough to bring in the crowds.  A Clubhouse leader, sure, I’d buy that…look around that clubhouse and tell me who’s going to take the reigns and be the leader?  When I think team leader, I think of a guy that’s a bit older, been around for a bit, seen some things and commands respect.  Does that sound like anyone we’ve got?  Wells doesn’t appear to be that guy, I guess maybe Hill?  But Hills only 27 and missed most of 2008.  What is the average age of this team now? 27? I don’t know, that’s something I’ll have to look up at some point.  We gotta be one of the youngest teams in the bigs right now.  So ya, back to the point, clubhouse leader.  Sure, I’ll go with that and Frank didn’t want that role either, so another point in favour of Carlos.  Pressure off Vernon, this is a biggie and will lead to a totally different post.  What’s our lineup going to look like IF the Jays did re-sign Carlos? You have to think he’ll hit after Wells and that has to give Wells some confidence again and probably some better pitches to hit early in the count.  Hopefully Carlos’ attitude will rub off on Vernon, just his attitude people ;)  Carlos could sit down have quite the chat with Vernon which we figure would go something like this “Vern, I carried this once great team on my back and still put up great numbers and earned my money, what the fuck are you doing?”  Another positive point to re-signing him is by meshing Carlos in the middle of all these right handers, it’ll make it a lot more difficult for the opposing manager making his late game bullpen decisions.  He won’t be able to look at the 7th, 8th and 9th and see 3 righties in a row nor would he be able to burn his left handed specialist on Lind.  Then there is the contract, what would Carlos re-sign for?  Vladdy just signed with the Rangers for a year at 5 million plus an option for 2011.  Vladdy is 35 versus Carlos’ 37, but how low could the Jays go?  6 million plus incentives? Looks good right? Let's do this...Not so fast sucka.

The other side of the coin:

We’re not supposed to be good this season, right?  The big thing we’re playing for is seeing what we’ve got on this team.  If we re-sign Carlos he’s going to take someone’s spot, someone’s spot who we’re trying to develop.  Someone who would need the year in the bigs to season.  Someone who would be totally cockblocked by The Cito and Carlos combination.   Plus if they re-sign Carlos, Boy Wonder has to trade Overbay and he can’t get fussy at this point.  The Jays don’t want Lind in the outfield, so if King Carlos is around where else do you play him?  Lind’s got to play first just to fit Carlos in and that’s just this season.  Then you’ve got Brett Wallace coming along and the Jays say they want him to play 1^st, but as I’ve said, I just don’t see how we’ve got the room to make that happen.  Will Wallace be ready to go this season?   Some say he’s pushing hard to get into the bigs and others say he needs another season.  Although just saw a picture of this kid and for fuck sake, he looks 12.  The Jays have said they don’t want to see Lind and Snider in the outfield together.  So if Carlos comes in and you don’t trade Overbay, do we send Snider down to the minors for another year of learning and prep for the pros?  That will buy you valuable time as Golden Arm points out in his Major League Service Time post.  The big question really is: would Carlos even want to come here for the kind of money that Boy Wonder would be offering and would he come here knowing that he’ll be the full time DH?  Him being the full time DH is really what’s best for Carlos at this point in his career.  Rest that hip up old man ;)  Speaking of that hip, that has to be in the back of anyone’s mind when reading about Carlos.  How long can he go before something starts to get sore and sore to the point where he has to start missing games especially playing 81 games on our shitty turf?  We don’t want to just start throwing more money away.  We’re already paying too many guys not to play here.  Anyway we spin it, we’ve got too many guys with too few positions to put them in.  Wait, sorry.  We’ve got to many guys that should have great years, but they all play the same fucking position.  My brain says, just let the kids play, let’s see what we’ve got.  But my heart says, fuck I’d love to see Carlos back in a Jays uniform.  Plus while reading around for this post I did see that Carlos currently has 473 career home runs.  Damn it’d be very cool to see Carlos hit his 500^th in a Jays uniform, unlike that other old guy we signed in November 2006 to be our DH who hit his 500^th in a Jays uniform.