Public Service Announcement: I'm Out

Your truly, The Man With The Golden Arm, will be unavailable for the next 3 or so weeks.  I am off to Europe to see my sister, meet my nephews and check out some sights.

My absence really could not come at a worst time, it being close to the trade deadline and us being sellers.....but what are you gonna do?

I have asked the contributors to pick up the slack and trust they will do their best.  I hope you will continue to check in with us from time to time for some Blue Jays news.

Quickly:

I have compiled a short wish list for things I would like to see upon my return:

Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, John Buck, Lyle fucking Overbay, E5 and Scott Downs traded to somebody other than the Red Sucks or Skankees

Not to much to ask is it?

Game 50 Recap: It's Been A While

That right there is the grip used for quite possibily the best change up in the Major Leagues.

I have been watching as many games as I can. The west coast swing made it quite difficult to stay up and give you all a report. With the boys back in town for what use to be known as Flashback Fridays, I had a chance to make some notes.

Aaron Hill is running MUCH better. He didn't hesitate to advance to second base on a poor relay throw after his solid RBI single in the first inning. He even tagged up on a medium fly ball and went to third, eventually scoring on Bautista's triple. Neither of those leg plays were possible even a week ago. Important to have that speed in the two hole. He also homered on an 0 - 2 fastball / mistake that was up in the zone in the bottom of the 6th.

Buck Martinez referred to the Rogers Centre as the SkyDome during the Wieters at bat in the top of the 2nd. Wonder if there is a fine for that?

John Buck really controlled this game from behind the dish. He helped Marcum get out of trouble all day and made some huge blocks on balls in the dirt. That gives the pitcher confidence to throw the breaking ball in any count, in any situation. Buck even went to the outside indicator after veteran Miguel Tejada got to second base. As a former catcher, I was disappointed in the fact that I did not really know what the purpose of those signs were. Obviously, they are signals similar to the fingers but after a few phone calls to the crew, jaysaremy2ndfavoriteteam informed me that they are usually used to signal to the middle infielders on attempted pitch location. He used to be a shortstop, you see. Fucking little guys.

Roberto Alomar made a brief appearance in the booth with Pat and Buck. He is in town for the roll out of his new clothing line called Second 2 None.  After sucking The Cito's dick for a bit, he stated: "There have not been a lot of big, big numbers offensive wise" when discussing the Jays style of play this year. Apparently he has not been watching to close.  I wonder if he is going to stick around for a little Men's C slopitch on Monday night in Georgetown?   I'm being serious.  Click that link right now.

Starting pitcher Shaun Marcum had to work for this W. He struggled with his command a little bit but he was able to get out of a few jams and strand the base runners. In the 6th inning, his final inning, he reaches back into the tank and K'd the side. Impressive performance.

His line: 6 IP, 6 Hits, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 106 Pitches

How do you not mention V Dub?  He hit a laser beam in the bottom of the 6th inning giving him 12 on the year. It also put him second on the career all time list for home runs by a Toronto Blue Jay with 204. He now trails only King Carlos and his 336.

#SorryVernon

I will end with this: my prayers have been answered.  Lyle fucking Overbay and his .197 average got moved down in the order.  Thank fuck.  He responded with an 0 for 3.  Shocking.

Really Early Elias Free Agent Rankings

 
In a much earlier post, I discussed the Elias Free Agent Rankings in detail.  Consider it a prerequisite for this post.

MLBTR has put up some "projected" rankings.  I'm not sure what formula they used, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of said formula.  But it is something and it effects some potential moves for your Toronto Blue Jays moving forward this season. 

First we will head over to Cot's Baseball Contracts and get some data on our players contract status.  From that I can say that the following players are able to file for free agency in November, 15 days after the World Series ends:

Lyle Overbay
Scott Downs
Jason Frasor
John Buck

The following players have an option that may be exercised for the 2011 campaign.

Kevin Gregg
Jose Molina
Alex Gonzalez

The rest of our boys are under club control next season.  Let's not speculate about the options to much because you have to think the only one that will be debated is Kevin Gregg's: 

11:$4.5M club option or $8.75M club option for 2011-12 ($0.75M buyout) 

I guess the brain trust has to decide if they want to pay him 8.75M over the next two years to help out the back end of the pen.  Based on his early performance I have to say that seems reasonable.  But there are still 123 games to go and a lot can happen.

Anyways, back to the point.  According to the data provided by MLBTR here are the rankings for our actual free agents:

Lyle O for today: 42.222
Scott Downs: 69.887
Jason Frasor: 67.029
John Buck: 58.036 

Analysis: 

Lyle fucking Overbay is a whopping 18 points away from being a type B free agent.  If he doesn't pick it up SUBSTANTIALLY then when he signs with another team we will receive no compensation ie draft pick(s).  He may be lucky to get a major league contract offer at this rate.  As we learned from the Rod Barajas signing, a major league deal must be inked in order to receive compensation.  All hopes of getting a decent prospect in return for this stiff via trade just went out the window.  Which begs the following questions: 

Why the fuck are we still running him out there everyday and in the five hole no less?  
Is The Cito doing a Kevin (scab) Millar circa late 2009 and giving him playing time so he can get a decent contract for another team next year? 

 
John Buck is just barely a type B.  Which is good news.  He is going to have to keep up the production in order to hold onto that status.  If we offered arbitration and he declines the offer, then we could get a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the 2011 Amateur Draft.  He is making a tidy 2 million this year.  There are no guarantees he declines the arbitration offer which would cockblock our catching prospects for another year.     

Scott Downs is a borderline type A free agent which is a double edged sword.  We would receive the signing teams first round pick, unless it is protected (top 15) then we receive a second rounder, and a sandwich pick.  Most teams do not want to give that much up to sign a reliever especially one that is not a closer.  Provided he maintains that status he may get squeezed on the open market.  It may end up that we resign him for cheap just before spring training.  It would be preferred that he drops a bit in the rankings and becomes a type B.  That would make the decision to offer him arbitration much easier.

Jason Frasor is in the upper tier of type B guys.  It would be great if he stays that way.

Kevin Gregg is an interesting thought exercise.  He is a projected type A and if he keeps mowing down hitters and racking up saves, he will remain that way.  Do you decline the options, offer him free agency and then hope he declines?  What if he accepts?  Do you exercise the options and keep him around through the 2012 season?  Or do you trade him and demand a high level prospect in return?  

Conclusion:

Type B relievers are the way to go.  We can demand a sandwich type prospect in return at the deadline and expect to get it.  Travis d'Arnaud was a sandwich pick.  Downs and Frasor could net this return.  I have to figure that Downs will drop in the rankings and I'm pretty sure he won't get many save opportunities this year in order to ensure it.

If some team wants Buck and is willing to pay that price we have to ship him out.  We get nothing for him if he drops out of type B status, which is possible but not likely.  I have the feeling he accepts the arbitration offer.  No real reason to support that but I think he wants to be here.

Kevin Gregg is the X factor.  His free agent status and contract make it very difficult to say what his future will be with the club.  I think that if he keeps the type A status then we exercise his options.  If he drops to type B, then we decline and offer him arbitration.  And if someone offers us something good for him then we trade him.   

Alex Gonzalez will be a Blue Jay in 2011.  We can talk about him later.

Game 31 Line Ups: No Lind, What About Lyle?

Many thanks as always to King Jordan for the line ups..... 

TORONTO AT CHICAGOat 8:10 p.m. ET
U.S. Cellular Field

BLUE JAYS (17-13, 5.0 GB)

1. Fred Lewis, LF
2. Aaron Hill, 2B
3. Jose Bautista, 3B
4. Vernon Wells, CF
5. Lyle Overbay, 1B
6. Alex Gonzalez, SS
7. Randy Ruiz, DH
8. John Buck, C
9. Travis Snider, RF
Pitching: Shaun Marcum (1-1, 3.12)
 
WHITE SOX (12-16, 7.0 GB)
1. Juan Pierre, LF
2. Omar Vizquel, 2B
3. Andruw Jones, DH
4. Alex Rios, CF
5. A.J. Pierzynskui, C
6. Carlos Quentin, RF
7. Mark Teahen, 3B
8. Mark Kotsay, 1B
9. Alexei Ramirez, SS
Pitching: Mark Buehrle (2-4, 5.30)

So Adam Lind and his 0 for 12 with 5 K against Buehrle gets a night off?  Ok, fine.  What about Lyle fucking Overbay and his 0 for 12 with 7 K?  Just saying.....

Game 28 Recap: Travis Snider Is Seeing The Ball

Your Toronto Blue Jays are 15 - 13 on the year.  We have hit more home runs than any other team in baseball!

Game 28 was a solid game all around.  Starter Ricky Romero got touched up a little but was able to get some big outs when he needed them.  His line:  6 IP, 9 Hits, 5 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 105 pitches.  Not thing spectacular but good enough to win.  He is 3 - 1 on the year but also has 9 wild pitches which leads the league.

The bullpen did a great job holding the lead.  Shawn Camp, Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg combined for three scoreless innings allowing only one hit and 1 walk.  Gregg had a 1, 2, 3 ninth inning for his 7th save.  He touched 95 mph on the gun more than once.  He is trying out a no seem sinker.  I would love to see that grip!

As for the hitters, number nine hitter Travis Snider had three hits on the night.  A double to left field, a double to right field and a comebacker up the middle off the pitchers foot.  Nice to see him using all fields and with some authority.  He ended up 3 for 5 with a steal.  His average climbed up to .193 for the season.

The top four hitters in the line up had six at bats.  Lead off man Fred Lewis got on base three times and scored two runs.  He seems to be getting more comfortable atop the order.

Shortstop Alex Gonzalez was only 1 for 4 on the day but the 1 was an 0 - 2 RBI double with two out.  He took a meaty change up and deposited it into the left field corner.  Clutch hitting.  I think we should give him a try in the 5 spot because.....

Lyle fucking Overbay is not getting it done there.  He struck out on a borderline pitch with a full count and the bases loaded in the forth inning.  That pitch was too close to take.  Gotta be more aggressive and foul that off.

The most interesting thing about game 28 will not be found anywhere in the boxscore.  Jose Bautista was hit on the hand after he had homered in his previous at bat.  He stayed in the game but that pitch was dangerous.  A fastball up and in.  The Cito and the trainer went out on the field to make sure he was ok.  During the walk back to the dugout, Gaston looked out the mound.  When he got back to the dugout, Cito said something to pitching coach Bruce Walton.  I tweeted this.

In the bottom of the 5th inning with Ricky back on the mound, he mows down the first two hitters to get to DH Travis Hafner.  First pitch to him was a fastball up and in.  That was the message.  Then on a 2 - 1 count, Ricky hits him with an 89 mph fastball.  That was the statement. 

Nice to see the team stick up for one another.  To his credit, The Cito had his hands all over that.

Today is get away day and the game is on already.  I will have to listen to it on the ride into work.  Looking for the sweep.

Game 20 Recap: We Lose A Slugfest 13 - 12

EPIC GAME.

Here are some notes in no particular order:

4 hours and 3 minutes long
13, 847 in attendance (including 1 Blue Jay Hunter)
399 pitches were thrown
25 runs scored
34 hits
13 pitchers used
20 strikeouts

How the fuck do you recap that?

In the third inning alone 10 Jays combine for six runs on six hits with two singles, two doubles, one triple and a homer.  We hit for the cycle in one inning as a team!

Travis Snider was the only Blue Jay not to get a hit.  His 0 for 4 with 2 K puts his season average at .133.....Concerned yet?  I'm not.

Lyle fucking Overbay had a big game.  He ended up raising his average to .183 with a 3 for 5 night.  2 of those hits came of a lefthanded pitcher including a dinger. 

If you can believe it, the real fireworks started AFTER the game was over.  Your Toronto Blue Jays made two roster moves and both of them involve the bullpen.

The first: Merkin Valdez was Designated For Assignment.  It's a bit of a harsh move considering he had only 2 appearances 11 days apart.  He never got a chance really.

The second: Jeremy Accardo was Optioned to the minors.  He has surrendered a earned run in everyone of his appearances this year except one.  He allowed all 6 runners he inherited to score.

Called up to take the spots are:

Josh Roenicke has a chance to stick around here for a while.  Great arm.

Rommie Lewis was closing out ball games in Vegas and will be making his Major League debut. 

Analysis:

I doubt Merkin makes it through waivers.  Remember how we got him don't you?  Although his 20.25 ERA might not be very appealing to a GM desperate for an arm.  But I think he gets claimed.

Accardo is in his last option year.  He got a fair look up here but if he can't get it going we may end up non tending him a contract next offseason.  That is if he makes it that far within this organization.

I wrote in an earlier post about Rommie Lewis:

Aside from Rommie Lewis, who opened some eyes in camp, the rest of the guys on this pitching staff are known as organizational depth and are expendable.

And now check out what The Cito had to say last night:

"He opened up a lot of eyes in Spring Training," Gaston said. "I liked the kid all spring, but it was just one of those things where you can't bring everybody. He happened to be a guy that we could send out." 

How about that.....

Game 13 Recap : It's My Birthday And I'll Cry If I Want To!

It was my birthday, and as per tradition Last Row 500's and some selected family members head down to The Dome and take in the festivities. Last year Lyle fucking Overbay (of all the Jays) celebrated my day with a walk-off homer. The year before that, well I'm not going to lie to you, I don't have a lot of first hand recall of the events past the 4th inning. I know it was Purcey's first Major League start and I think a Barajas home run was in the time line of events but short of that, it's a little fuzzy.

Anywho, this years version of the annual Last Row 500's birthday Jays game went like this:

The Good: Ricky Romero was dealing. 8 IP, 5 H, 6 K's 1 ER 2BB.  Fred Lewis showed some spark ripping a double down the RF line and subsequently stealing third on a great heads up play. Adam Lind's 9th inning solo home run that landed deep into the 200's in RF. The symmetrical opposite of where my seats were. (I'll get that home run ball yet)

The Bad: 0-2 RISP, 3 LOB Total announced attendance of 14,246 (including 5 birthday celebrants) Overbays continued struggles at the plate.

The Ugly: Only 7 of the Jays' 31 Plate Appearances went deeper than 4 pitches. 7!!! Angels pitcher Ervin Santana began the 8th inning with a pitch count in the mid 80's. As referenced to above, Santana was attacking the strike zone early and often. Many of the Jays hitters opened at-bats with 0-1 and 0-2 counts, when they weren't swinging at the first pitch. Overbay's error in the 9th inning led to an unearned run for Downs, an all but sealed the outcome for the Halos. From where I was sitting, despite support from his Manager and his teammates, Overbay's lack of production on offense, appeared to assist him in the miscue defensively. The normally very sure handed 1st baseman appeared tentative and rushed and was apparently channeling Bill Buckner on the play. Rogers Centre fans were merciless on the newest member of the goat club.

The Jays' record falls to 7-6, and welcome the Royals to the Rogers Centre for a 3 game set. Tonight's match up pits Brandon Morrow (0-2 12.00 ERA) vs Brian Bannister (0-0 2.19 ERA)

Game 11: Overbay Kills Us Again 7 - 5 Loss

Just finished watching the game on the PVR, tough loss, a game I thought we should have won. Somebody *cough* Lyle *cough* up again in two situations to take the lead and once again this season couldn't get it done.

Let's start off with my notes on the good stuff:

Vernon hit yet another bomb tonight, well on his way to 30. His RBI was his 736th and ties him with Joe Carter for third on the all time Jays list.
Bautista made a brilliant defensive play on a grounder that took him into foul territory and made a good throw to Overbay to finish the out. A play I'm quite certain that E5 wouldn't have made.
I've heard the players mentioning that the new turf is quite bouncy and it certainly appeared to assist Lind getting a single in the 7th inning.
Marcum, like many of the starters this year pitched into the 7th and he had some good movement tonight. He really only had the one bad inning, that being the 5th. The rest of the night, I thought he looked pretty good.
My boy Randy Ruiz did want Randy Ruiz does, hit a rocket out to left centre in the 8th, the pitch that got Weaver out of the game. God, why doesn't he play more often?
Lind crushed one, like a drop the bat and watch it go type home run. To me it looked like it bounced off the hands of some clumsy fan, but it might have hit a empty seat and bounced right back on to the field. Speaking of empty seats, attendance was UP tonight to a whopping 14779.

Now onto the bad:

Not really bad, but bad for us. Weaver was on the money tonight, he worked at Halladay like speed and kept batters guessing most of the night. He really only threw 2 bad pitches to the Jays hitters all night and they both ended up over the wall.
A bad but catchable throw from Buck to Gonzalez on a stolen base attempt, Alex was just looking ahead for the tag before he got the ball and it skipped over to Johnny Mac.
Lind got a wee bit too aggressive in his base running on a pitch that got away from Angels catcher Mathis, who quickly recovered and easily threw out Lind at third. By a mile.
Accardo, is really giving The Cito some ammo to send him back down isn't he? Another stellar performance by Accardo tonight, wild pitch and gave up the runs that put the game out of hand.
Snider really looked like a amateur out in the field on a fairly routine fly ball to right in the 8th. The misplay ended up costing the Jays a couple of runs. Snider has looked solid so far this year in the field, but in Left.
I've been reading on twitter Jays fans complaining about some of the questionable umpire calls during the White Sox series, it seemed to me that trend was continuing again tonight.
Speaking of umps, Jim Joyce, the yelling strike in the first inning was cool. By holy fuck, by the 3rd I wanted to kill the guy.

Now, The Cito Effect:

Ok Cito, I know you like the vets. But seriously check the fucking box score last night. Overbay went 0 for 5 with 4 k's. Hasn't got a hit in days, if not a week. But you insist on keeping him in the lineup, not only do you insist on keeping him in the lineup, you put him in the 5 SPOT!! Come on man!. A performance like this and Snider would have been on a bus in Vegas by now.
Cito on Overbay, "We need Lyle to get going. I don't think sitting him is going to help him." It might not help him, but it will certainly help the paying public.

That's all I've got Jays fans. There is always tomorrow.

Game 10 Recap: 7 - 3 Win For The Good Guys

We really should be ashamed of ourselves.

The roof was open for baseball this season earlier than any other year.  The previous record was April 16, 2002.  

Your Toronto Blue Jays managed to get a split with the White Sox on the strength of Dana Eveland's left arm and Alex Gonzalez's bat.  Eveland was able to pick up where he left off from his last start, although this time around he relied heavily on the breaking ball as opposed to the change up which was so good against Baltimore.  He looks very good and is proving to be a shrewd pick up by the Boy Wonder.  Some guys really just need a change of scenery and Eveland appears to be one of those guys.  He picked up his second win of the season and his ERA sits at 1.35.

Shortstop Alex Gonzalez is making his case to remain in the two hole.  For the game he went 4 for 5 with 3 RBI.  The thing I like about him is: he murders low pitches.  In the two hole he can expect to see a lot of them that is if the lead off guy gets on base.  Teams will be trying to induce the double play and that plays right into his strength as a hitter.

Alright I want to talk about our first baseman and number five hitter Lyle Overbay.  For the record, I believe he needs to be in the line up everyday.  He entered yesterday's game hitting .088 and after his 0 for 5 with 4 strikeouts, his average sits at .077.  For the year he is 3 for 39.  Some of it can probably be attributed to his fucking terrible entrance music:

No way he gets pumped up to hit listening to this crap.   

Now, before we all start calling on The Cito to bench his ass or platoon him with cult hero Randy Ruiz let's think about this.  He is going to be a free agent next year.  We NEED to get something in return for him.  The only way to do that is by trading him or rolling the dice in the arbitration game.  So yeah, keep running him out there no matter how painful it is to watch.

HOWEVER

He has absolutely no business hitting in the five spot.  NONE.  Other teams are beginning to base their strategy around facing him and that is something that is starting to hurt his teammates chances of succeeding.

Is it a coincidence that Vernon has not seen a lot to hit lately?  No it isn't.  Is it a coincidence that other teams are bringing in a lot of tough lefties out of the pen to face Lind, Wells and Overbay late in the game?  Again, no it isn't.     

I think it is time for him to move down in the order.  Perhaps a day off first to let him know there are no free passes and then into the 7th or 8th spot you go until he gets it going. 

But try to keep some perspective on Lyle.  One good 4 for 4 game from him and his average more than doubles to .163, which is still pretty bad but it's very early. 

Quickly:

Head's up play by Bautista in the top of the 6th got us out of a jam.  He observed Juan Pierre forgetting to tag back up and third base and alertly told Gonzalez to tag him for the 8-4-6 double play.

Gordan Beckham made a unbelievable play at second base in the bottom of the 5th to rob Travis Snider of a hit.  Beckham went to his right, dove full out to make the stop.  Then he flipped the ball to second to get the force on Bautista.  He did not have time to make the transfer to his throwing hand.  It was pretty.  The players call that a "web gem". 

Speaking of Travis Snider, he hit his first home run of the season to right field.  Big shot to the second deck.  Check out the bat flip after he connects, man this kid is going to be good once he figures it out.....he also made a nice diving catch in left field to take away a base hit.

We made a move to get some much needed outfield help shortly after the game.  As mentioned in game 9's recap, Fred Lewis was acquired for a PTBNL or cash.  I have already told our boy Jesse to be on the lookout for some Giant scouts in the next few games in Lansing.  Basically how a Player To Be Named Later works is: the Blue Jays give the Giants a list of X number of guys that they can choose from.  The Giants scout them over a period of time and then choose one.  If they don't want any of the players, then they take the cash.

The book on Lewis is he has above average speed which translates to decent outfield defense.  With the stick, he has some pop and began last year as the Giant's number three hitter.  He is primarily a left fielder, although he has played all three outfield positions in the past.  With us, he will be the back up and should come off the bench to pinch run.  He bats left, so if our manager ever considered pinch hitting, he could be an option against right handed pitching late in a game.  If he plays well, you may see him take some at bats from Bautista against right handed pitching but the brain trust has said for now, he is the back up.

He is out of options and cannot be sent to the minors without exposing him to waivers.  So Jeremy Reed was sent back to triple A to make room for him on the Major League roster and Dustin McGowan was transferred to the 60 day DL to make room on the 40 man roster.  Once Aaron Hill is back, look for Mike McCoy or Randy Ruiz to be sent back to Vegas.  Numbers game victim.

I think he would look pretty good at the top of our order but what do I know?