"Vision(s)"

This is a text I sent our boy Jay - a ridiculously huge Phillies supporter - the eve before the winner take all Game 5 NLDS showdown involving former Blue Jay hero Roy Halladay and oft under appreciated Blue Jay Chris Carpenter. 

It's not often I get these "visions" that pop into my head. They seem to be exclusive to sport and normally involve a huge underdog. The last one I can recall was way back in 2007.

My friends and I made the trip down to Columbus, Ohio for UFC 68. The main event featured heavyweight champ Tim Sylvia against Randy Couture. The Natural had been out of the fight game for a while and this was his comeback fight. Nobody in the world gave Randy a chance. Tim was at least a half foot taller and out weighted him by 50 pounds. Plus he was the reigning and defending champion.

As we made our way on foot to the stadium to watch the fight, I asked everyone in our party who they thought was going to win the main event. To a man, they all took the champ.

I told them about my "vision", which was a decisive Couture victory. Not only that but I mentioned that it was going to last all five and end in unanimous decision. I was laughed at. Repeatedly.

Since then, I have been waiting patiently for another one of these "visions" to come. I guess anyone can pick a huge underdog and be right, especially when it's a legit 50/50 bet. But the clarity and detail to which I was able to predict the result of that fight left my friends speechless.

Back to the Cards/Phillies match up.

Not exactly sure when this "vision" came. I believe it was that awkward time when lying in bed just before you fall asleep. I'll admit, this one was a little less detailed than the previous one. But I did see a gem and I did see the number 3.

Click here for the boxscore

Conclusion:

The next time I get one of these "visions", I'm pulling out the wallet.

84 - 78. Book it.

Let's be honest, predictions are really silly. You can say whatever you want at the start of the season and be right. Last year I thought your Toronto Blue Jays were going to be just awful. I went on record with this shitstain: 

Dead last in the AL East, maybe even the entire AL. 

We won 75 games last season and that included contributions from Scott Rolen and Alex Rios for roughly two thirds of the season.  We replaced them with Edwin Encarnasion and Jose Bautista.  That win total also includes a full season of Roy Halladay and Marco Scutaro.  We replaced them with Brandon Morrow and Alex Gonzalez. I hate to be so negative before the season even starts but I think we may be in danger of flirting with the teams fourth 100 loss season.

I also had Adam Lind as the team MVP. 

Huh. How about that?

Naturally, I took bets. The line was set at the 2009 win total of 75 minus a half point. I had the under. There turned out to be only one taker. A friend from work, when asked for his thoughts, dropped an 85 on me. After I finished laughing directly at him we promptly put 20 bucks on it. He liked the young arms and thought they would come together.

So for this year, I have decided to look past all the perceived holes and question marks facing the mighty Blue Jays. I refuse to acknowledge that the unbalanced schedule and inter league play hurts our chances of victory. All I did was ask "Mr 85 wins out of fucking nowhere in 2010" for his thoughts again this year minus the whole betting thing. This is what he came back with: 

I have 84 in my mind. I gotta believe that the way Johnny is gonna run this year that we'll win about the same but just a little differently.

Go Nuts! Lugnuts!

We are happy to report that our boy Jesse will be back in the booth calling some baseball for his third season with your Toronto Blue Jays low A affiliate Lansing Lugnuts.

Hopefully we can get our hands on some top prospect interviews - before anyone else - for you all to celebrate and rejoice in after the roster gets assigned.

This right here is a straight re-post from The 2-2 Pitch which was originally written in September of last year.

When given the chance to make an update Jesse chose to stand behind his original prediction but adds:

"I’m sure that the rumors will start up about whether Deck begins the season with us or Dunedin this year, and there may very well be other fluctuations to come, but I still feel comfortable with that guess – regardless of how wrong it turns out to be~!"

This came about because of a terrific question sent in by a fan on the final LugCast of the regular season.

Here are my predictions for the 2011 Lansing Lugnuts...

Lineup:
C Carlos Perez
1B K.C. Hobson
2B Oliver Dominguez
SS Gustavo Pierre
3B Andy Fermin
LF Marcus Knecht
CF Jake Marisnick
RF Michael Crouse
DH Lance Durham

Key question: Lance Durham and K.C. Hobson are both left-handed hitting first basemen. They shouldn't both be here, and yet Hobson is a virtual Lugnut lock while Durham has spent the last two years with Auburn. Where else would you send him?

Bench:
C Jack Murphy
OF Stephen McQuail
OF Markus Brisker

Key question: How many struggling 2010 Lugnuts -- i.e., Ryan Schimpf, Balbino Fuenmayor, Eric Eiland -- return for 2011?

Rotation:
RHP Deck McGuire
RHP Drew Hutchison
RHP Daniel Webb
RHP Casey Lawrence
RHP Asher Wojciechowski

Key questions: This is a prospect-laden rotation, albeit totally right-handed. Does Sam Strickland slide into the rotation to give the Lugs a left-handed arm? Will we see talented 18-year-olds Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard sooner or later?

Bullpen:
LHP Sam Strickland
LHP Michael Kelly
RHP Scott Gracey
RHP Danny Barnes
RHP Milciades Santana
RHP Dayton Marze
RHP Drew Permison

Key questions: Once again, these are all newcomers with the exception of Gracey and late addition Barnes. Who else returns from the disappointing 2010 bullpen? A recommitted Brian Slover? A healthy Dustin Antolin? Aaron Loup or Matt Wright, just to make sure there are some more lefties in the pen? By the way, the numbers were just brilliant for Marze, Santana, and Permison last year. Hopefully they'll keep it up.

To follow Jesse on Twitter click here

Back to the Future: Blue Jays Edition

I blame this cheesy movie trilogy which has been on the tube the last couple of weeks and as a result I have been thinking quite a bit about what your Toronto Blue Jays will look like entering the year 2015.

I am basing this list on the following assumption: Players who were 18 or younger on June 5 preceding the signing of their first contract must be protected on the 40 man roster after five minor league seasons. Players 19 and older must be protected after four seasons.

My futuristic 40 man roster looks a little something like this:

Pitchers:

Ricky Romero
Kyle Drabek
Brett Cecil
Zach Stewart
Marc Rzepczynski
Brad Mills
Robert Ray 
David Purcey
Josh Roenicke
Luis Perez
Joel Carreno
Deck McGuire
Henderson Alvarez
Asher Wojciechowski
Chad Jenkins
Matt Daly
Alan Farina
Drew Hutchison
Dayton Marze
Griffin Murphy
Sean Nolin 
Nicholas Purdy
Deivy Estrada
Drew Permison

Catchers:

J.P. Arencibia
Travis d'Arnaud
Carlos Perez
A.J. Jimenez

Infielders:

Mike McDade
Adeiny Hechavarria
Brett Lawrie
Gustavo Pierre
John Tolisano 

Outfielders:

Anthony Gose
Travis Snider
Jake Marisnick
Darin Mastroianni
Eric Thames
Marcus Knecht
Michael Crouse

A few things to consider:

I have to assume the following guys were either lost to free agency or traded during the 2013-2014 seasons.

• Jose Bautista
• Adam Lind
• Aaron Hill
• Rajai Davis
• Yunel Escobar
• Brandon Morrow
• Jesse Litsch
• Scott Richmond
• Jo-Jo Reyes
• Carlos Villanueva
• Casey Janssen

Naturally, we could re-sign or extend any of them. It is also fair to assume that if we traded a couple of these guys then we would have possibly got players in return that would need to be on the 40 man. I can't account for that. Sorry.

There is a shit load of fringy type guys that need to be added to the 40 man by the start of the 2013 season. In 2015 they would most likely be in their final option year. I don't think these guys will make it that far but they could always turn it around in 2011 or 2012.

• Kevin Ahrens
• Justin Jackson
• Eric Eiland
• David Cooper

These are the players that need to be added by the start of the 2014 season. They would still probably have 2 option years left entering 2015.

• Kenny Wilson
• Markus Brisker
• Ryan Goins
• Ryan Schimpf
• Sean Ochinko
• Yan Gomes

Entering final year of contract: Ricky Romero making $7.5 million with an option for 2016 at $13.1 million. He is the only player currently under contract for the 2015 season.

Entering final year of team control before being eligible for free agency: Travis Snider*, Brett Cecil (not 100% sure on this one), David Purcey, Adeiny Hechavarria. These guys would be considered bait.

*I'm wondering if him being optioned to New Hampshire for 2 weeks in July after his wrist injury rehab was completed will push this date back to 2016.

Samuel Dyson is an interesting case. Technically he would need to be on the 40 man roster to start the 2015 season. However, it is rumored that he needs/had Tommy John surgery and will miss at least a year to recover. I believe the braintrust can ask the commissioners office for an exemption and thereby receive another year of team control. I am not positive on this. Perhaps someone out there is.

My projected 40 man roster is same as the current Blue Jays 2011 roster breakdown, which is 24 pitchers / 16 position players. I acknowledge my roster is without a DH and a little crowded at catcher and in the OF. It's called depth. It's a good thing.

The following 2010 high school draftees would not yet need to be on the 40 man roster in the year 2015, so for the purposes of this list they won't be.

• Dickie Thon Jr
• Chris Hawkins
• Kellen Sweeny
• Aaron Sanchez
• Noah Syndergaard
• Justin Nicolino
• Mitchell Taylor
• Shane Opitz
• Brandon Mims

I'm also fairly confident international free agents Gabriel Cenas, Adonis Cardona and Jairo Labour are not required to be on there just yet either.

We will probably select a player in the 2011 Amateur Draft that can move through the system in under 3 and a half seasons and jump right on the 25 man roster. A junior or senior from a division 1 college a la Deck McGuire. That window narrows considerably in the 2012 Amateur Draft.

Now if only I could get my hands on a Grays Sports Almanac, I may be able to tell you if this collection of players is good enough to make the playoffs in the 2011 to 2015 time frame.

2nd Annual 25 Man Roster Challenge

Since we all had so much fun doing it last year, I thought it was a must that we try it again. This year we will open up the challenge to anyone and everyone who wants to compete. If you need a refresher on the rules click here (start from the bottom). Basically all you need to do is pick your Toronto Blue Jays Opening Day 25 man roster. The deadline to do so this year will be Feb. 19, which is the day of the first full workouts in camp. Once all the participants are identified, I will put up a poll on this site so everyone can vote on who they think will be the winner.

If you want to play you have a few options on how to get your ballot in.

• send me an email: 1bluejaysway@gmail.com
• make a post on your blog, if you have one and send me a link
• add your list to the comments section of this post or the reminder post I'll do the day before the deadline

For this year the tie breaker will be the closer. Just in case the braintrust makes the decision to go with the dreaded closer by committee then the closer for our purposes will be deemed to be the first guy to register a save in 2011.

At stake are bragging rights for both the results of the vote and the actual contest.

A few things to consider while compiling your list:

It doesn't matter who plays where, only if they make the Opening Day roster. So whether Bautista plays RF or 3B is irrelevant.

Do we roll with a 4 man rotation to start the year? Or maybe an 8 man bullpen?

If a guy on a Minor League deal, like Corey Patterson, makes the team somebody needs to be dropped from the current 40 man roster.

What do we do with the guys that are out of options? Dustin McGowan, Jo-Jo Reyes, David Purcey, Jose Molina, John McDonald and Shawn Camp would all have to be on the Opening Day roster or potentially be lost on waivers. Unless of course they start the year on the DL.

Those are just a few of the questions you should ponder before submitting your list. Don't feel like you have to spend any time on this. All you required to have in order for your ballot to be valid is 25 names. Feel free to add as much or as little explanation as you see fit.

Hope you can join us and play!

Weekly Round Up: It's been a while.....

Yeah so whatever. My e-mail account and Twitter feed are cluttered. It's downright silly at this point. Plus, it's not like I plan to stop looking for new sexy cowgirls on line anytime soon.

What I have done is turned in my BBA membership card, turned off sitemeter and remembered why I started up this bitch in the first place. It's not about pages views. It's not about making money. And it's certainly not about writing out everything that happens, as it happens, everyday.

What is it about you ask?

That's simple. A place where we are all free to discuss Blue Jays baseball. That and I need somewhere to keep all this shit together. An outlet if you will.

Anyways, a long overdue round up for y'all.

Consider this your required reading.

Consider this your required listening.

Consider this your required viewing. There were a couple of honorable mentions.

Courtesy of Jim Callis:

Every year, there's usually at least one prospect who gets caught in Top 10 limbo, and this year it's Lawrie. He would have been our No. 1 Brewers prospect, but he got traded to the Blue Jays for Shaun Marcum before our Milwaukee Top 10 came out—and after our Toronto Top 10 was published. So Lawrie won't make a Top 10 in our magazine or on our website, though he will appear in the 2011 Prospect Handbook.
Here's the scouting report that would have appeared with our Brewers Top 10 had Lawrie stayed put:
The Brewers put Lawrie on the fast track in 2010 by assigning him to Double-A Huntsville at age 20, making him the second-youngest regular in the Southern League. Very confident to the point of cockiness, he was anything but intimidated and got better as the season progressed and he adjusted to the higher level of competition. He led the league in runs (90), hits (158), triples (16) and total bases (250). Lawrie has very strong hands and a quick bat, allowing him to wait on pitches and drive the ball to all fields. He's not a prolific home run hitter but piles up extra-base hits by shooting the ball into the gaps. Lawrie needs to balance his aggressiveness with more plate discipline, however. Though he stole 30 bases, he was caught 13 times and his speed is just average. Lawrie has smoothed out some of his rough edges in the field but still must work on making his hands softer, as evidenced by the 25 errors he committed in 131 games at second base in 2010. He has solid arm strength but may not have the first-step quickness to remain at second. He won't have to be a Gold Glove defender because his bat will get him to the big leagues and keep him there. If he has to move to an outfield corner, he'll still provide enough offense to profile as a quality regular.
Lawrie will rank No. 2 on our Blue Jays list, between righthanders Drabek and Deck McGuire. I don't think Lawrie will stay at second base and think his big league home will be right field. He should join Toronto at some point in 2012.

So there. Even if Lawrie does turn out to be a corner OF, he is still suppose to profile as above average there. Currently, he slides right in at number 2 on the BA list of best prospects in the system.

Courtesy of The Wall Street Journal:

J.P. Ricciardi came to the Mets in November after eight years as the Toronto Blue Jays' general manager—eight years of running a team that only once finished higher than third in Major League Baseball's best division.
So now that Mr. Ricciardi is a special assistant to Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, the prospect of having to wrench supremacy in the National League East away from the Philadelphia Phillies doesn't fill him with much apprehension.
"The AL East always had two or three teams coming at you," he said by phone recently. "After having done it so many years against the Yankees and the Red Sox and Tampa being good through that cycle, I'll take my chances. Even though the Phillies are really good, I'll take my chances over here."

Pussy.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick:

The comfort that Wells has found later in life has come from the fact he realizes that he is not worth what he is being paid, but, in fact who is?
“I think the most important thing about getting contracts like this is you get to go out and do so many different things in the community,” Wells admitted.
“You get to go out and impact lives. The way I feel about it, I was blessed with that contract to go out and do things. Everybody would say I’m not worth the money and I would totally agree that I’m not worth that contract, but I don’t think there is anybody . . . but I know what I can do with that contract will far outdo what that contract’s worth.”
Jays fans, understandably, only care about results on the field.

In other news, winter is cold and the CN Tower is really tall.

Courtesy of Jeremy Sandler:

In less than a week, the Toronto Blue Jays should know if a 14-year streak is going to continue.
The club has not gone to an arbitration hearing with a player since reliever Bill Risley in 1997. But the Jays have a major league-high nine players eligible this season and a team-imposed deadline of Tuesday to clear them from the books.
Toronto’s timeline shrunk last year when general manager Alex Anthopoulos said the team would not negotiate after salary figures were officially submitted for arbitration. That policy is expected to continue this season.

By my calculation the team imposed deadline or "file-to-go" strategy if my memory serves correctly is on Tuesday around mid day. I predict a flurry of signings in the next 24 hours or so to keep us happy.

Courtesy of Jeff Caplan:

Lance Berkman, a career National League outfielder and first baseman with the Houston Astros, agreed to be traded last season to the New York Yankees. He knew he wouldn't play first base for the Yanks. That is property of Mark Teixeira. Berkman went to the Bronx Bombers to serve solely as DH and perhaps a game here or there at first.
When New York came to town late in the regular season, Berkman -- who is 34, the same age as Young -- talked about what it's like to hit and then not trot out to your position.
"At the time, I had never not played every day and I didn’t realize how much I appreciate being out there and playing defense," Berkman said. "That’s one of the byproducts of this trade is it’s made me realize I love to play defense and play it every day. I knew I liked defense, but to me the game is so much easier from a rhythm standpoint, from a timing standpoint when you know you’re going to be in there and when you get to go out there and play the field."
Pretty strong words.

I thought I would include this one for all you E5 will be a great DH types out there to consider. You know who you are.

Courtesy of Cathal Kelly:

Good Lord, we need to move on. How about we try the Blue Jays.
“It seems to me like they’ve got everything in place. It feels like, to me, like they’ve got it right and they shouldn’t touch it now. They feel me to like a bow and arrow, like they’re ready to launch.”
Are we talking playoffs?
“I’m not going to push it.”

A psychic’s look at your Toronto Blue Jays future fortunes. Yeah. Right.

Courtesy of Chris Jaffe:

According to Baseball-Reference.com, the Toronto Blue Jays have lost 2,709 games in franchise history. There have been more important losses, more heart-rending losses, and more memorable losses, but none of losses were quite as lamely filtered away as one that came 10,000 days ago today.
After nine innings, they battled the Orioles to a 4-4 tie in Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium. The top of the tenth got off to a great start for the visiting Blue Jays, as Cliff Johnson led off the frame with a go-ahead homer. Jays led, 5-4. As an added bonus, Barry Bonnell followed that up with a single. Things were going great.
They were about to go stupid.

A great reminder on one of the reasons why teams like to carry an extra lefty in the pen. Keeping guys close at first base late in a tight game is a weapon that far too many managers don't use nearly enough.

Courtesy of Roto Professor:

The Closer: Octavio Dotel
He became the front-runner for the job once he signed his free agent contract, but he is far from a lock to maintain it all year long. In fact, it is arguable that he is even the best man for the job.
Dotel pitched for three different teams in 2010 (Pirates, Dodgers & Rockies), compiling a 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He certainly still is a strikeout artist, posting a strikeout rate of at least 10.55 each of the past four seasons. However his fastball, which is a pitch he throws over 80% of the time, has been losing a little bit of zip in recent years:

• 2007 – 93.5 mph
• 2008 – 92.5 mph
• 2009 – 92.6 mph
• 2010 – 91.7 mph

That certainly makes you wonder if he will be able to sustain the lofty strikeout rates or if a regression could be in order.
Another question is his control. He’s never posted good control numbers (career BB/9 of 4.09), but he has been even worse over the past two years with walk rates of 5.20 and 4.50. Throw in his struggles against lefties (they hit .301 against him in 2010 while his strikeout rate was just 7.66 and walk rate was 7.25) and there should be major concerns with his ability to shut down games (in the AL East he’ll have to face batters like Mark Teixeira, David Ortiz, Adrian Gonzalez and others).

In fact, it's over 85% if you include the cutter, which clocks in at a cool 89.7 MPH. I have to think the guts of this article is bogus. It's basically saying Dotel throws a slider and a fastball. That's it. A cut fastball, regardless of the fact it has the word fastball in it, in my opinion, is another pitch altogether. It has to be thrown slower and thus moves more than a fastball.

A more appropriate statement to make regarding Dotel's velo in "recent years" would be: Since 2007 he has thrown the fastball almost 60% of the time and it comes in between 92 and 93 MPH. He mixes in a cutter and a slider.

Unfortunately all the shit about lefties is accurate.

All that said, I'm looking forward to watching him break some bats for us this year and try to remind yourself during one of the inevitable meltdowns this upcoming season that shitty bullpens do make the game of baseball more interesting.

Courtesy of R.J. Anderson:

Offenses driven behind low on-base percentages and high slugging percentages have existed throughout the history of the league (with league context being key in defining what a high slugging percentage defines). But recent seasons have led to a proliferation of these offenses. Perhaps we should take to calling them the Joe Carter offenses in honor of the Blue Jays’ legend with a slugging percentage of gold and an on-base percentage of tinfoil. I fully understand that even if the Jays returned the same lineup they would be unlikely to replicate their 2010 feats. Still, I wanted to know how the teams alongside the Jays fared in the year thereafter.

This is a must read.

Courtesy of R.J. Anderson:

What Bautista’s season means is simple and complicated. Bautista owned 59 career home runs in more than 2,000 plate appearances entering the 2010 season. He then added 54 jacks in 683 plate appearances. A journeyman becoming the most feared batter in baseball in the blink of a winter is an unpleasant thought because history provides little comfort. Keep Bautista’s lack of a 20 home run season in mind as you read the accomplishments of the other players to hit 50-plus in a single season.

This too.

Courtesy of TSN:

With the Toronto Blue Jays being better than expected last season, fans of the club hope that the Jays can contend in the AL East in 2011, but what should they expect in 2011 from Jose Bautista, who led the majors with a surprising 54 home runs last season?
In order to help Jays' fans get a glimpse of what could be, we're collecting different projection systems' results so fans of Canada's lone MLB team can see what others are expecting the Jays to do.

Some projection systems go head to head. Interesting to note the differences.

Courtesy of Matt Klaassen:

2. Edwin Encarnacion, July 4, -.224 WPA. The Jays were playing the Yankees on Independence Day when Encarnacion came up to the plate in the tenth with runners on first and second, no one out, and the score tied at six. He bunted into the air to the third baseman and Adam Lind got thrown out at second. The Jays went on to lose in the bottom of the inning.

As a manager, it's not really fair to ask your player to do something in a game you know he can't do. In extra innings against the Yankees? That is just plane stupid.

Courtesy of Scott Carson:

Now, there's a new sheriff in town and his name is John Farrell. While he's a former pitcher and pitching coach by nature, he's been around the game long enough to have a strong opinion on what direction he would like his team to take at the plate. Based upon his introduction to the Toronto media and subsequent comments at the winter meetings, you Cito-bashers out there -- and I know there are more than just a handful of you -- must be enjoying the fact that the Jays will be bringing a lot more 'small ball' into the mix.

Sounds like anyone you might know?

I never did end up getting any info on Alan Farina

It all started with a kind offer. I decided to take him up on it.

Good day sir,
I am writing you in response to your gracious offer for video and your thoughts on Blue Jays prospect Alan Farina.
I have a Jays blog and we did a massive post a while back on all of the prospects in the system. At that time, we had very little info on Farina.
I would like to update the post now and would appreciate any thoughts you may have on him, or anybody else. We just used second hand info on his out pitch and repertoire.
Thanks for your time.
--
The Man with the Golden Arm

I can be very diplomatic when the time calls for it. He replied, quite quickly in fact, with this.

Farina pitched at one of the AFL games I attended, but I don't believe I got any video of him. Pitching was really down in the league this year, so I spent most of my time watching hitters from down the first and third base lines. 

I think I saw every Blue Jay hitter who was in the league at least once. Any one in particular you'd want info on?

Adam

Yes, yes there is.

Well shit.
Your site is the one with the kick ass prospects write ups and what not. It wouldn't be right to just rip off your insights and say they were my own.
That being said, I would love to share ANY Blue Jays related stuff you can give with our readers. In my experience, video is especially valuable. Guys taking BP, infield warm up, in game situational plays, whatever.
Absolutely anything you wanna include in the way of scouting reports, personal observations, what you overheard other people saying etc is a bonus.
Really appreciate the help.
I will run everything I plan to post by you, once it's completed, if you wish.

Now I'm pretty sure he can see I'm not a square. 

Sounds good. Maybe you can give me a guy or two who you want to know more about and I'll give you some info.

Translation: What do you wanna know?

AFL guys from this year?

Eric Thames for sure.
Conflicting reports by the "experts" on his game.
Mike McDade and Adam Loewen would be a distant second and third.

There always comes a time when you have to get specific. 

What are some of the conflicting reports you've heard about Thames? Maybe I can help clear those up. I've seen him four or five times now. 

At this point I go find some stuff off the top of my head. He may have been testing me a little bit.

Well Sickels likes him. Thinks his power is legit.

The stuff behind the BA paywall says he is strong and projects as an average LF.
And Klaw hates him. "Don't see him as more than a fringe regular. Probably a 4th OF or up-and-down guy."
All have him in the big leagues in some role. Interested on your take.

Wait for it.....

Thames really improved his core strength and agility between the time I saw him last spring and last fall. He went from being a bulky dude who looked ready to pull a muscle at any point to someone with very impressive flexibility and athleticism.

I haven't broken down his swing in detail yet, but it is a bit long. He has enough power to put a charge into the ball regularly. A rhythm hitter, I think he borders on being too selective at the times -- takes a lot of pitches. He'll chase out of the zone and take some ugly swings when he's behind in the count. Thames gets good reads in the left field, has solid speed and can make some impressive plays. His arm is below-average.

I think Thames has a chance to turn into a near-average regular. And he'll almost certainly be a big leaguer. But he may not hit enough to be a starting left fielder for a playoff caliber team.

Loewen is an amazing athlete for a dude his size. As most people would expect, he has a cannon of an arm. He's a very impressive runner for a giant, too. And he has elite raw power. He won't ever be much of a contact hitter, but he went from being hopeless for much of the 2009 AFL season to decent in 2010. I see him as a power bat off the bench, but he might manage to turn into someone that a big league team feels comfortable starting a few days a week, when the matchup looks good.

AKA the good stuff. Not really a whole lot I can add at this point. But I give it a go.

Thames does yoga religiously. Could explain the body type transformation.
Interesting take on Loewen. My buddy who works at the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame said he saw him back before he got drafted while he was still a pitcher and raved about his power with the stick of all things. That was like 5 or 6 years ago.
Thanks for that.
You got any video on either guy you can share?

I guess you could call me greedy but someone told me to always keep your eye on the prize.

Yep. I'll upload some video of both taking BP today.
Oh and McDade is not a big leaguer for me. Poor approach to hitting
and no defensive value.

Bonus!

That's awesome. Thank you.
Do you think Loewen gets selected in the Rule 5 draft?

Just one more thing.....

Eh, Loewen would be a gamble in the Rule 5. Maybe. He'd get embarrassed at the plate.

This is good news people.

Here are those videos.

Money in the bank. Is it just me or does the ball sound different coming off the bat of Thames?

If you got something on the brain and you are not a moron, why don't you try shooting Adam an email adamf@projectprospect.com and see what happens.

If you don't wanna bother with that, then you should at the very least follow him on Twitter. May I also suggest you bookmark this site and subscribe to this channel on YouTube while your at it.

Rock solid stuff.

Quickly:

Speaking of the Rule 5 draft, it's tomorrow and I have a prediction.

J.P. and the Mets will take Brad Emaus and they will keep him all season.

Call it a hunch.

Where My Head Is At

I've been away from the scene for a while. Nothing earth shattering, just not able to watch as many games as I want to for various reasons.

But the truth is, sadly, I haven't felt like watching that many games.

It's kinda hard this time of year to get into it and not because we are out of it. That was expected at this point. This time of year, to me, is all about day dreaming about the future. Seeing players that are expected to contribute in the future and trying to imagine where they fit in. Think Bautista last year. That is what September is and has been for us Blue Jays fans for a long, long time.

But, true to form, The Cito is fucking everything up. It's kinda getting old just straight complaining about our field manager and don't think for a second I don't do it. I just can't bring myself to write about it.

I will say this:

Allowing guys to play for next years contract, when it's fully expected to be a contract with a different team, is totally mind blowingly fucking retarded. Especially when you have questions that need answering about your own team and players that may be the answer, stapled to the end of your bench.

So what I am gonna do, is try to answer some of the questions that are floating around my brain. Feel free to jump in wherever you see fit.

The Bullpen Situation:

Kevin Gregg

Our current guy is a heart attack closer plain and simple. He walks a few too many hitters early in his appearances for my liking. That being said, his numbers are excellent especially lately.

In August and September this season, he is 2-1 with 10 saves, 1 blown save and a 1.98 ERA.

His contract is pretty unique and requires us to make a decision this off season. We can exercise the team option for only 2011 at $4.5 million or we can exercise a team option for 2011 and 2012 at $8.75 million. The third and final option is we buy him out for $750,000 and allow him to become a free agent. Currently he is a Type B, which would net us a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round of next years draft, if we offer arbitration and he turns it down.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Take a look around baseball and see what other closers are getting in terms of salary and term. Most of them make over $7 million dollars a season on multi year deals. Taking that into consideration as well as his decent numbers this season, I exercise the 1 year option and hope he can keep it together in 2011. If he does, then he might just get into Type A territory or we can deal him at the deadline for something we need.  If the wheels fall off, then we got an overpaid set up guy and somebody else gets a shot at closing out games.

Scott Downs

Our current set up man is money in the bank. He does not throw hard but knows how to get guys out at the Major League level. Every team in baseball needs one of those and they generally don't come cheap. The fact that he is left handed is a bonus.

Downs will be a free agent at the end of this season and the only thing to consider is whether or not to offer him arbitration. He is a Type A so if he signs with another team we get their 1st round pick (unless it's a protected pick) and a sandwich pick when we offer him arbitration and he declines.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Offer him arbitration, sit back and wait. If he accepts, that's great. Bring him back on a 1 year deal and look to unload him at the deadline.

When he doesn't accept, that's great too. I give him a call in February if he's unsigned and offer him a 1 year deal. If he has signed with someone else put the draft picks in your pocket and give the job to Purcey to see what he can do. You still got Rommie Lewis and Jesse Carlson as lefty situational guys. Jo-Jo Reyes might be a guy who could fill that role as well.

Jason Frasor

Like Downs, he is a free agent at the end of this season. Unlike Downs, he is right handed. 

What I would do if I was in charge:

Offer him arbitration and pray that he declines. Take the sandwich pick and run. Frasor is easily replaced from within the organization.

Perhaps Jeremy Accardo finally gets a fair chance.  He is out of options.

Or Josh Roenicke.

Dustin McGowan is gonna need a spot next year if he is fit and able to pitch. Maybe he gets converted to a reliever? He is also out of options.

Dirk Hayhurst if healthy could get a look.

Incumbents Casey Janssen, Shawn Camp or even new guy Taylor Buchholz could easily fill that role.

Point being: right handed relievers are a dime a dozen.

Brain Tallet

Non tender him and be done with it already. There is no way this guy has any value on the tradeblock. I see a guy like Rzep stepping into the long man / spot start role only because there probably won't be a full time spot for him to start anytime soon.

The Rotation Situation:

Thankfully, I probably won't need to spend to much time on this. We are looking very solid here. Brett Cecil, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero will be with us for a long time. Provided they can stay healthy. 

Shaun Marcum

Fully recovered from Tommy John, the staff leader and number 1 guy for now, will not be eligible for free agency till 2013. He has pitched very well for us but seems a little over matched against the true aces in the AL.

What I would do if I was in charge:

I discuss a 3 year deal with him or maybe a 2 year deal with a club option this winter. No point going year to year with him unless we have to. That being said, I would listen to offers on him and if somebody dangles a blue chip infield prospect than perhaps I do it. Only because we have a bit of depth here and some glaring holes elsewhere. He will fetch quite a return on the open market, either now or at the trade deadline.

Number 5 Guy

So very many options!

Kyle Drabek, Jesse Litsch, Marc Rzep, Brad Mills, Scott Richmond, Robert Ray, Shawn Hill just to name a few. A good spring by Luis Perez or Jo-Jo Reyes could get them in the conversation as well.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Keeping in mind, this spot gets skipped quite a bit early in the season, I give the ball to Litsch if he's healthy. 

I would start top prospect Drabek in AAA and buy some time before starting his arbitration year clock. With a kid like this, I need not worry about things like option years and I burn one if necessary. In the Minors, I can control his innings a lot easier and I would absolutely baby his arm.

He will be pitching in the rotation in 2011, I just don't see it happening to start the year.

The Catcher Situation:

John Buck

Our current starter is a free agent this winter and projects as a Type B. 

What I would do if I was in charge:

I offer him arbitration. Since he is coming off an All Star year, I doubt he accepts. But for some reason if he does then I'm not exactly disappointed. He has done a good job for us and it wouldn't be the dumbest idea to bring him back to catch the majority of games in 2011.

Jose Molina

Our current back up and personal catcher to break out starter Brandon Morrow has done a better than expected job for us, especially with the bat. He has a cannon of an arm and does quite a few things that do not show up in the box score. We have a team option on him for 2011 at the cost of an even million dollars. He is close to being a Type B free agent and with a decent season next year, he could obtain that status.

What I would do if I was in charge:

This really depends on John Buck. 

If he doesn't come back, then I definitely exercise the option. If he does come back then I'm not so sure but I probably do it anyways.

J.P. Arencibia

Coming off a monster 2010 MVP season in AAA, he certainly deserves to be in the conversation. Is he ready to start the lion's share of games in 2011 for the big club? Can't answer that because he has not been given a chance yet. And with All Star catchers at every level, the real question should be: Is he the best one we got anyways? It takes time to develop a young catcher, especially when you got a young rotation like we do.

What I would do if I was in charge:

This again depends heavily on John Buck. 

If he comes back and I pick up Molina's option, then obviously J.P. heads back to AAA.

If he comes back and I do not pick up Molina's option, then J.P. gets the back up job in the Majors.

If Buck does not come back, then J.P. gets his well deserved shot at the Majors. He and Molina each get about the same number of starts, which would probably pump Molina into Type B status. This is the preferred option in my eyes.

The 1st Base Situation:

Lyle Overbay

Lyle is a free agent this winter and has no compensation attached to him due to his shitty last couple of seasons with the stick. He should not be brought back under any circumstances.

Adam Lind

Adam has been used primarily as a DH during his career. He is a left handed thrower and has shown the ability to hit big league pitching in the past. Granted, he is having a down year after a silver slugger award for his awesome 2010 season but is under team control till 2017 on a very reasonable contract in terms of salary.

What I would do if I was in charge:

The kid has got to be given a chance to play everyday. I guess you could go with him in left field and cross your fingers that the ball doesn't get hit to him. Or you could continue to try to develop him as a potential 1st baseman. 

I would look to sign an aging somewhat cheap free agent slugger that can play a little 1st base this winter on a 1 year deal with a team option. This would allow him and Lind to get a couple of starts a week at 1 bag and a couple of starts a week at DH.

Whoever we sign must be a Type B free agent when we sign him. That way we are pretty sure, given full time at bats, he can at minimum maintain that status. If he goes off, then maybe he climbs up to Type A or becomes a tradeable commodity at the deadline.

I'm thinking Adam LaRoche is a nice candidate. 

The 2nd Base Situation:

Current starter Aaron Hill has had a tough 2010. No doubt about it. A hamstring injury early in the season really seemed to set him back. Playing on the carpet at home probably didn't help any. His defense appears to be in decline, in terms of footwork and range, although he still has an above average arm. With respect to his contract, a major decision looms at the end of this season. Technically, he is entering the final year of his deal. The club has 3 years of options that can be picked up. The catch is, if we wanna pick up all 3 then it must be done before the 2011 season begins. After that point, only the 2012 and 2013 options can be exercised.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Ask myself if Aaron Hill is gonna be able to play 2 bag for me for the next 4 seasons. He will be 29 years old at the start of the 2011 season, which would make him 32 at the start of the 2014 season. The money seems about right for a starting infielder:

2011 $5 million 

2012/2013 $8 million

2014 $10 million

Looking down on the farm, we got nobody pushing him for his spot right now at 2nd base. 

Honestly, this is a tough call especially since he has been hitting like shit all year. The safe thing to do would be nothing at all. Let him play out 2011 at 2nd base and re-evaluate at that point. If his D and hitting come around, then exercise the options for 2012 and 2013. If they do not, then maybe he isn't part of the future here in Toronto and we let him walk. I just don't see the point of picking up all 3 option years right now, regardless of the dollar amount.

The SS Situation:

Thank God for Yunel Escobar and the 3 years of team control. 

And while I'm at it, thank God for Adeiny Hechavarria and his 5 years of team control.

The 3rd Base Situation:

Edwin Encarnacion

Everyone's favorite whipping boy and future firework safety spokesman is entering his final year of arbitration. He is making a whopping $4.75 million this season. E5's defense is fucking awful, especially his arm and his hitting is not that much better. We DFA'd him this year in June and nobody made a claim. Shocking, I know.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Based on his contract vs his production, he seems like a clear non tender candidate. We could offer him arbitration but I believe the least he can sign for is 80% of what he is being paid right now. That would be $3.8 million and that's the absolute best case scenario. I hate to let an MLB asset walk for nothing but I would make an exception in this case.

Jose Bautista

I mean really, what are we even talking about here? 

Sure J-Bau is solid in right field and does have a lot of assists thanks to a strong, accurate arm. And the rumor is he prefers it there, at least that was The Cito's reason for keeping him out there this season. Bautista is a beast with the stick, takes his walks and has a year of arbitration left.

As a nice side bonus, he is a little less likely to get hurt at 3 bag than OF in my opinion. Less running around and diving and what not.

What I would do if I was in charge:

He plays 3rd base everyday and hits clean up. 

I discuss a long term deal with him but would prefer not to sign him. If 2010 was a fluke, then you could get burned here big time. If 2010 was not a fluke, then you can pretty much guarantee he is at minimum a Type A free agent after next year and at most a very tradeable commodity at the deadline.

The Outfield Situation:

This one is a little more complex in my eyes. If Bautista moves to 3rd and Lind moves to 1st as mentioned, then we may have a little bit of work to do here.

Vernon Wells

Will be back in CF. No way he is ever being traded and I doubt the new manager is gonna want to start off with a new club by moving the veteran team leader to a new position anytime soon. 

What I would do if I was in charge:

Move Vernon to RF.

It is gonna have to happen eventually, so why not get the kinks out before it really matters? I'm terribly worried about V-Dub's health.

We don't have anyone ready just yet in the Minors, although our boy Darin Mastroianni could get a long look this spring. Anthony Gose is the future in CF. Look for him to start the year in AA and hopefully be ready in 2012 at some point.

Travis Snider

The kid is finally getting the opportunity to play everyday. I wonder if The Cito was finally told that this MUST happen. According to those who watch him day in and day out he is more comfortable in LF than RF but he can play either which is a nice luxury to have.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Make the decision to keep him in LF and stop hitting him dead last in the fucking order. 

Fred Lewis

Fred is limited to LF duties only and is not very strong there. He misses his fair share of cut off men and seems to take strange routes to balls. His best asset to the team is his bat and his ability to hit lead off. He is under team control till 2014 and is out of options.

What I would do if I was in charge:

Since Travis is my full time LF and Vernon is my RF that moves Fred to the bench as the 4th OF. He would get in the line up occasionally but only when the match up dictates. I would try to get him at bats when and only when one of my groundball machines AKA Romero and Drabek is on the hill. 

So Who Plays CF In 2011?

Great question. 

I like Mastro there and hitting 9th but I doubt he's ready. The Angels recently moved gold glove machine Torii Hunter over in favor of a young man by the name of Peter Bourjos. Surely the idea wasn't a popular one but neither is watching a former star decline at a premium position on the field.

I guess we could look for a defense first guy on the market and grab him on a 1 year deal. Or we could hang onto DeWayne Wise and run him out there. Any way you slice it, we get better defense in CF and whoever is providing that, hits last in the line up.

The Bench Situation

The Back Up Infielder

John McDonald will be in the final year of his contract for the 2011 season. A versatile infield defender that doesn't complain about playing time is a manger's wet dream. He gets a spot for sure.

The Back Up Catcher

No matter what happens with the catching situation, I think this spot goes to Jose Molina.

The Back Up Outfielder

I think it goes to Fred Lewis. He would the best pinch hitting and best pinch running option by far.

The Extra Guy

I can see a bunch of different things here but realistically it depends on the way the new manager wants to play the game. If he values speed and defense, look for a Mike McCoy type guy. If he wants to mash, then maybe a Randy Ruiz type guy. My hope is that it is not someone currently on the 40 man roster. 

It wouldn't totally shock me if we go with a short bench and an extra arm in the pen, especially if it means protecting a guy like McGowan from over use.

Conclusion

Boy wouldn't it be nice if we were using this garbage time in September productively to find out the answers to some of these important questions? 

The teams still in the race can suck my cock and the dicks at the MLB head office can also suck my cock for continually scheduling brutal finishing months for us. Like why should we care what Tampa Bay or New York or Boston thinks about us running out some kids to see what we have for next year? You think if the situation was reversed they would do the same? That's all I am gonna say about that.

Keep in mind there is a bunch of shit that will no doubt change this winter but if I had to guess, right now, Opening Day 2011 looks like this:

My line up:

Snider LF

Escobar SS

Lind 1B

Bautista 3B

Wells RF

Whoever DH

Hill 2B

Arencibia C

Mastroianni CF

My bench:

McDonald

Molina

Lewis

Whoever or nobody

My starting rotation:

Marcum

Romero

Morrow

Cecil

Litsch

My bullpen:

Gregg 

Purcey

Camp

Janssen

Carlson or Lewis or Reyes

Accardo or Roenicke or Buchholz or Hayhurst

Rzep

McGowan is the wild card once again.

Simply put: We stay the course, keep building through the draft and developing our own talent.

Jake Marisnick Promoted To The Lansing Lugnuts

LANSING, Mich. – The Lansing Lugnuts, in conjunction with the Toronto Blue Jays, announced Sunday that outfielder Jake Marisnick has been received from the GCL Blue Jays (Rookie – Gulf Coast League) while infielder Randy Schwartz has been placed on the 7-day Disabled List retroactive to July 30th.

Marisnick, 19, was the Blue Jays’ 3^rd round selection in the 2009 Draft.  In 35 games in the GCL, he batted .287 with three home runs, 14 RBIs, 14 stolen bases, and an OPS of .832.

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ADD:  OF Jake Marisnick, received from GCL Blue Jays (Rookie – Gulf Coast League)

DEACTIVATE:  1B/3B Randy Schwartz, placed on the 7-day Disabled List retroactive to July 30th

Navin over at Sports And The City did a nice piece on him last year.  You should definitely check it out.

His Minor League numbers look a little something like this:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2010	19	Blue Jays	GULF	Rk	TOR	35	142	122	17	35	12	0	3	14	14	1	13	18	.287	.373	.459	.832	56	2	5	0	2	0
1 Season						35	142	122	17	35	12	0	3	14	14	1	13	18	.287	.373	.459	.832	56	2	5	0	2	0

That's it.  A month and 10 days of pro baseball and he's moving up the ladder already. 

If you've been following him on Twitter then you will already know that the brain trust held him back for a couple of months in an extended spring training.  Then they decided to turn him loose in Rookie Ball.  It's hard to judge him on such a small sample size so.....enter our boy Jesse.  He will be watching Jake rather closely from the broadcast booth and I have already requested an interview.

In his first game with Lansing playing CF and hitting 7th, Jake went 2 for 3 with a double and 2 RBI, one of which came with 2 out. 

Prediction:

You will not be able to take a look at this scouting report from last year without touching yourself. 

Really Early Elias Free Agent Rankings

 
In a much earlier post, I discussed the Elias Free Agent Rankings in detail.  Consider it a prerequisite for this post.

MLBTR has put up some "projected" rankings.  I'm not sure what formula they used, nor can I vouch for the accuracy of said formula.  But it is something and it effects some potential moves for your Toronto Blue Jays moving forward this season. 

First we will head over to Cot's Baseball Contracts and get some data on our players contract status.  From that I can say that the following players are able to file for free agency in November, 15 days after the World Series ends:

Lyle Overbay
Scott Downs
Jason Frasor
John Buck

The following players have an option that may be exercised for the 2011 campaign.

Kevin Gregg
Jose Molina
Alex Gonzalez

The rest of our boys are under club control next season.  Let's not speculate about the options to much because you have to think the only one that will be debated is Kevin Gregg's: 

11:$4.5M club option or $8.75M club option for 2011-12 ($0.75M buyout) 

I guess the brain trust has to decide if they want to pay him 8.75M over the next two years to help out the back end of the pen.  Based on his early performance I have to say that seems reasonable.  But there are still 123 games to go and a lot can happen.

Anyways, back to the point.  According to the data provided by MLBTR here are the rankings for our actual free agents:

Lyle O for today: 42.222
Scott Downs: 69.887
Jason Frasor: 67.029
John Buck: 58.036 

Analysis: 

Lyle fucking Overbay is a whopping 18 points away from being a type B free agent.  If he doesn't pick it up SUBSTANTIALLY then when he signs with another team we will receive no compensation ie draft pick(s).  He may be lucky to get a major league contract offer at this rate.  As we learned from the Rod Barajas signing, a major league deal must be inked in order to receive compensation.  All hopes of getting a decent prospect in return for this stiff via trade just went out the window.  Which begs the following questions: 

Why the fuck are we still running him out there everyday and in the five hole no less?  
Is The Cito doing a Kevin (scab) Millar circa late 2009 and giving him playing time so he can get a decent contract for another team next year? 

 
John Buck is just barely a type B.  Which is good news.  He is going to have to keep up the production in order to hold onto that status.  If we offered arbitration and he declines the offer, then we could get a sandwich pick between the first and second round of the 2011 Amateur Draft.  He is making a tidy 2 million this year.  There are no guarantees he declines the arbitration offer which would cockblock our catching prospects for another year.     

Scott Downs is a borderline type A free agent which is a double edged sword.  We would receive the signing teams first round pick, unless it is protected (top 15) then we receive a second rounder, and a sandwich pick.  Most teams do not want to give that much up to sign a reliever especially one that is not a closer.  Provided he maintains that status he may get squeezed on the open market.  It may end up that we resign him for cheap just before spring training.  It would be preferred that he drops a bit in the rankings and becomes a type B.  That would make the decision to offer him arbitration much easier.

Jason Frasor is in the upper tier of type B guys.  It would be great if he stays that way.

Kevin Gregg is an interesting thought exercise.  He is a projected type A and if he keeps mowing down hitters and racking up saves, he will remain that way.  Do you decline the options, offer him free agency and then hope he declines?  What if he accepts?  Do you exercise the options and keep him around through the 2012 season?  Or do you trade him and demand a high level prospect in return?  

Conclusion:

Type B relievers are the way to go.  We can demand a sandwich type prospect in return at the deadline and expect to get it.  Travis d'Arnaud was a sandwich pick.  Downs and Frasor could net this return.  I have to figure that Downs will drop in the rankings and I'm pretty sure he won't get many save opportunities this year in order to ensure it.

If some team wants Buck and is willing to pay that price we have to ship him out.  We get nothing for him if he drops out of type B status, which is possible but not likely.  I have the feeling he accepts the arbitration offer.  No real reason to support that but I think he wants to be here.

Kevin Gregg is the X factor.  His free agent status and contract make it very difficult to say what his future will be with the club.  I think that if he keeps the type A status then we exercise his options.  If he drops to type B, then we decline and offer him arbitration.  And if someone offers us something good for him then we trade him.   

Alex Gonzalez will be a Blue Jay in 2011.  We can talk about him later.

Las Vegas 51's 2010 Roster

Here is the 2010 roster for your Toronto Blue Jays triple-A affiliate Las Vegas 51's.

5 Jarrett Hoffpauir INF *
8 Luis Figueroa INF
11 Christian Colonel INF
13 Jesus Merchan INF
23 Brett Wallace INF
31 Kyle Phillips INF
33 Brian Dopirak INF *

3 Chris Aguila OF
6 Chris Lubanski OF
7 Jeremy Reed OF
12 Aaron Mathews OF
35 Jorge Padilla OF

44 J.P. Arencibia C
45 Raul Chavez C


10 Josh Roenicke RHP *
14 Robert Ray RHP *
19 Ray Gonzalez RHP *
21 Zach Jackson LHP
25 David Purcey LHP *
26 Steven Register RHP
27 Brett Cecil LHP *
37 Willie Collazo LHP
38 Sean Henn LHP
41 Rommie Lewis LHP
43 Jesse Carlson LHP *
49 Brad Mills LHP *
88 Lance Broadway RHP

20 Dan Rohn Manager
17 Dave LaRoche Pitching Coach
36 Chad Mottola Hitting Coach

* indicates player is currently on 40 man roster 

Analysis:

These are the players that will most likely be called up in the event of an injury or a trade at the Major League level.  I noted the guys who are on the 40 man roster for a simple reason, they will be the first ones called up.  The other players would have to be added to the 40 man prior to be summoned to the majors.  Subsequently, someone else would have to be removed from the 40 man, most likely via trade, or be placed on the 60 day DL before that could happen.  It's a lot easier for the organization to just call up a guy who is already on the 40 man then deal with the headache.

Look at all that lefthanded pitching!  

8 southpaws and 5 righties.  By my count we only have 4 guys in the rotation unless Purcey is allowed to start.  Keep in mind LHP Marc Rzepczynski (15 day), RHP Jesse Litsch (60 day), RHP Scott Richmond (60 day), RHP Dustin McGowan (15 day), RHP Dirk Hayhurst (60 day) and RHP Shawn Hill (minor leagues) are listed as disabled.  These guys are on various timetables in terms of recovery.  Hopefully they will be added to this list whenever they have completed their respective 30 day "rehab assignment".

First call ups for starting pitchers in order are:

1. Brett Cecil
2. Brad Mills
3. Robert Ray
4. Ray Gonzalez  

Relievers really depend on what the big club needs.  But since we only have one lefty, Scotty Downs, in the bullpen right now, I figure the call ups will look something like this:

1. Carlson
2. Roenicke
3. Purcey

Contrary to popular belief, I do not think Brett Wallace will be up with the big club until the rosters are opened up in September, even if/when we trade Lyle Overbay.  Boy Wonder will be very weary of his service time and not want to "start his clock" until he absolutely has to.

I see Brian Dopriak going up whenever the impending Overbay deal finally does happen.  He will be given an opportunity to hit major league pitching.  Unfortunately for him, regardless of the results, he more than likely eventually gets outrighted off the 40 man roster in favour of a pitcher at some point this season.

Jarrett Hoffpauir will also probably see some time in the big leagues this year but I wouldn't run out and buy his jersey just yet.....because if we need an outfielder, Jeremy Reed is the guy and he needs to be added to the 40 man before he can go up.  Raul Chavez and J.P. Arencibia are in the same boat with respect to the catching position.

Look for Hoffpauir to be the first guy outrighted off the 40 man when we eventually need that spot.  Another candidate, although much less likely is Luis Perez.  He is slated to begin the year in New Hampshire.  25 year old left handed pitchers do not tend to make it through waivers.

Aside from Rommie Lewis, who opened some eyes in camp, the rest of the guys on this pitching staff are known as organizational depth and are expendable.  We got them from someone else and we will give them to someone else. But don't feel too bad for them, they still get paid decent money to play the game they love but need to catch a break to get to the bigs.

Boy Wonder is going to have some decisions to make when Litsch, Richmond and Hayhurst are ready to pitch due to their status.  I predict trades are going to start being considered in about three months time.  We will be looking for players coming back that do not need to be added to the 40 man roster right away.

Question:

How does anybody actually play baseball in Vegas with these types of distractions omnipresent.