On
occasion I enjoy firing out a late night gem on the Twitter feed right before I
fall asleep. Normally these are well thought out snippets regarding your
Toronto Blue Jays. The reason for this is the enjoyment I get waking up and
seeing the responses, if there happen to be any. A few nights ago I came up
with this:
I
am not against acquiring another SP but I wonder if we really need one. Ricky,
Morrow, Cecil, Alvarez, McGowan looks fine. Drabek 1st up.
Now
that right there friends is a statement. I had been thinking along those lines
all day and I did my best to jam it into the 140 character maximum. Let’s
see what my people had to say about it.
@Tammy_Beth
that's been my thought all along - but i am a sucker for the
Yu idea (with Cecil to the pen)
@twit_terrific
Didn't we all think exact same thing last offseason?? Assumed
RR,BM,BC would take next step & BM+BC did opp. DM unsure, HA who knows..
@daveellis66
agreed. Most excited for Alvarez in the whole bunch.
@Raiderfan_NOC
I wouldn't trust dustin
@HouseOfTheBB
I think the issue isn't that the Jays don't have enough
pitchers its that they don't have enough high end pitchers
All fantastic points and some interesting variances in opinion. I very much wanted to address
them all individually but the space limitations were prohibitive. Here are my
thoughts on the matter, the long version…..
6'0
215lbs
Entering
2011, Ricky Romero had not yet earned the ace title. On the other hand
he was our best pitcher, so he got the ball for opening day. He made all his
starts and threw another pain free 200 plus innings mostly matching up against
the best our opponents had to offer. That's no easy feat. He was an All Star, albeit a
last minute addition after a bunch of wimps back out.
Let’s
take a look at a few of his key stats as well as his AL rank.
The
Good
6th
in ERA with a sexy 2.92
8th
in IP with 225
4th
in CG with 4
12th in K with 178
10th in WHIP at 1.14
The
Bad
4th
in HR allowed with 26
4th
in BB with 80
3rd
in Hit Batters with 14
If
you said he had some control issues then I would be forced to somewhat agree
with you. He misses a lot of bats AND gloves. Falling behind in the count to
big league hitters tends to lead a walk or a hard hit ball. Ricky is finding
this out the hard way. His reliance on the above average change up could help
explain all the long balls.
All that being said, I think you could slap a semi
legit ace label on him now. Could we use an upgrade here? Sure, of course we
could. But so could about 25 other teams in baseball. On the bright side, our
top guy is going to cost (a put your ski mask on kind of cheap) 5 million dollars in
2012. More importantly he grew into the leader of the staff and was the guy everyone looked to give the bullpen the night off.
6'3
195lbs
Entering
2011, Brandon Morrow was expected to have a break out season. Spoiler alert: it
didn’t really happen. He has the gift of being able to throw absolutely
effortless gas but was handcuffed with an innings cap and missed a few games
early in the year after being shutdown in spring training. He did end up making
thirty sometimes frustrating starts and set a career high for innings pitched.
Here's some of his highlights as well as his AL rank.
The
Good
7th
in K with 203
1st
in Strikeouts per 9 innings with a rocking 10.188
The
Bad
4th
in Wild Pitches with 12
5th
in Hit Batters with 12
I
for one am not quite ready to call his 2011 season a disappointment just yet.
Only one guy in all of baseball had a higher strikeout rate than him.
He’s your classic power pitcher and they always have bouts of wildness. Brandon is no different.
In the second half of the year I did see a guy who seemed at least interested in trying to figure out this
whole pitching as opposed to throwing thing. Word on the street was Papi got
him to trust in the cutter sometime after the All Star break and he toyed
around with it for his last 5 or so starts. Before that he had basically become
a two pitch pitcher. Check out the repertoire below. For comparison purposes
I’ll include his 2010 percentages.
Fastball:
2011
61.8%
2010
58.4%
Slider:
2011
26.4%
2010
15.3%
Change
Up:
2011
6.4%
2010
14.1%
Curveball:
2011
5.4%
2010
12.2%
To
sum up, one pitch out of ten was not a fastball or slider. He has got to mix in
some muffins more often. That needs to be and will be addressed. Realistically he only needs one of the two offspeed pitches to be working on any given night to be successful. Another
thing I've noticed is when he pitches out of the stretch he tends to get hit
more. I'm sure this is true to a degree with most guys but with him it's rather
dramatic. If
he can find a way to stay in the full windup just a little bit more each time out it could
pay off for him as the season goes on. Hopefully he can avoid those high stress
innings that have become all too common. Look for him to have the innings cap
shackles removed for the first time in his career next year.
6'1
235lbs
Entering
2011, Brett Cecil was coming off a very successful campaign, the first full one
of his career. I think people were expecting him to pick up right where he left
off and that certainly did not happen. After just 4 starts he was optioned out to
Vegas. A dip in velocity was observed by all and whispers of a possible injury
began making the rounds. Statistically speaking, he lost about two full MPH off
his fastball. Many felt this caused him to reach back which in
turn altered his mechanics. Basically he was lost on the mound. The hope was he
would find it in the Minors and that didn’t really happen either.
Let’s
take a look at some of his MLB numbers from 2010 and compare them to 2011.
Walk
rate:
2010
2.81
2011
3.06
Strikeout
rate:
2010
6.10
2011
6.33
Groundball
rate:
2010
44.2
2011
38.2
Flyball
rate:
2010
38.2
2011
43.5
Homeruns
per 9 innings:
2010
0.94
2011
1.60
The
one that really jumps out at you is the gopher balls. Like Ricky, he relies heavily
(22.6%) on his change up. And like Ricky, when hitters sit off speed and get
off speed it tends to go into the seats. I’m no pitching coach but I
think it’s fair to say he may have lost some confidence in his fastball
this season. And I think that’s probably the easiest pitch to regain your
confidence in. He needs to throw it more not less, especially early in the
count and then work off it as the game goes on. Perhaps his well documented
lack of fitness played a role in his tough year. On the positive side of the
ledger, he’s under team control until 2016 and threw over 200 innings in
2011 between his time in AAA and the show.
6'1
195lbs
Entering
2011, Henderson Alvarez had never pitched above High A ball. He was a good
prospect but nobody really expected much from him yet and rightfully so. Not
known as a strikeout guy despite his above average fastball, he skipped right
over AAA a la Kyle Drabek and established himself as a viable starting option
in the big leagues. Still only 21 years old he doesn’t have much of a
breaking ball to speak of just yet. What he does have is a turbo sinker, a
swing and miss changeup and a huge set of balls. This kid is not afraid to
challenge hitters early on in the count which often leads to some very quick
innings. That approach works more often than not if you have the movement on your stuff to pull
it off. Simply put, watching him pitch is a refreshing change from the other
starters in the rotation. His biggest asset is his near pinpoint control and he
has shown that he can pitch to both sides of the plate. If only he could develop
a pitch that goes right to left, even just the show me type. Another thing I’ve
observed is what I like to call the Jesse Litsch conundrum. He can’t
throw the ball straight and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Occasionally mixing in a hard four seem fastball in the
top of the zone won't allow hitters to sit on his off speed stuff so much.
6'3 235lbs
Entering 2011, Dustin McGowan hadn’t thrown a pitch
in a professional game since 2008. He wasn’t on the radar at all.
Everyone was cheering for him to get healthy and monitored his now legendary
rehab quite closely. Realistically though, none of us could expect much in the
way of contributions. We all had been down that road too many times riding
shotgun with Dusty and I fully understand the apprehension in trusting him with
innings. Well wouldn't you know it, he did come back and pitch again. The
results in this specific case don't really matter that much. Everyone who watched him pitch will say the same thing, that being
he looked pretty darn good. He featured the classic four pitches. His fastball came in
around 93MPH pretty consistently and when he reached back for more it was
there. I saw him throw a few sliders that were almost that hard. The changeup
looked respectable and the curve had some good finish. His delivery was smooth, effortless and repeatable. It's hard not to dream about what a near full season of
him in the fifth starter role would look like. He's the perfect guy to skip in
the rotation on off days. I literally pray every night that he has a great off
season and reports to camp feeling strong and loose.
6'1 220lbs
Entering 2011, Kyle Drabek was the new guy. He had made 3
starts at the end of the 2010 season and things looked promising. He was given a legit shot at making the
club right out of spring training and took full advantage. Featuring a solid four
pitch mix, he was looked upon to stabilize the back end of the rotation. We had
all heard the concerns with his “make up” when the deal for Doc was
done. Truthfully, I didn’t really know what that means. After watching
him for a few months I think I’ve got a better handle on what people were talking about. Kyle is a hothead on the mound. He loses his mind whenever any little
thing doesn’t go his way. I once saw him take a swipe at the dirt on the
mound after a ball squeaked through the infield for a hit WITH HIS PITCHING
HAND. I guess it’s better to start off too pumped up and have to be
reined in a little then the opposite but man, it was embarrassing at times to
see him act out on the hill. Let’s be honest, white guys aren’t
supposed to turn that red in the face unless Halle Berry is present.
If you guessed that reference was only an excuse to
put up a Halle Berry pic then you would be 100% correct.
No but in all seriousness, if you have given up on him being a big part of
the team moving forward then please click the little box with the X in it
located at the top right hand corner of this web page. Cut the guy some slack. In fact you should cut the guy a lot of slack. He’s been an absolute beast of a pitcher at every level of
baseball he’s ever played at. Failure is not an easy thing to accept for
people used to being so successful at their craft. The kid still has mid 90’s heat, a
cutter that moves about six inches and a stupidly filthy hook. Once he learns to
trust his stuff in the strikezone watch the fuck out.
Conclusion:
My
initial statement stands. With respect to an upgrade, he would have to be a top
end guy and let's be clear: I’m not against this. Nobody should really be against this. However, unproven
Japanese pitchers with big price tags are not exactly what I had in mind. I sincerely doubt Yu Darvish steps right into this rotation behind Ricky.
If it ends up we can't find another starter this winter, I’d
be completely comfortable rolling the dice with these six players going into next
year. Is it good enough to take home the big prize? Probably not.
If I may put a positive spin on things for just a moment it's really quite this simple:
- Leave Ricky alone
- Get Brandon to throw more benders
- Send a personal trainer over to Brett's house
- Show Henderson how to throw a slider/cutter/curveball
- Treat Dustin like found money
- Give Kyle some more time
