Showing posts with label catcher of the future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label catcher of the future. Show all posts

2011-05-13

Exclusive Interview with Travis d'Arnaud



Blue Jays Prospects from Ryan Kelley on Vimeo.

Our boy Jay has been very busy over the last couple of weeks pounding out exclusive content that hopefully made the sun shine just a little brighter for you, wherever you may be. Having seen merely 3 Fisher Cats games over a span of 4 days, he was able to get 7 solid interviews with various team personnel. The final installment of this series is with catcher Travis d'Arnaud. At the time of the interview, Travis was still on the DL with concussion like symptoms.

Since his return he has posted 2 multi hit games, one of which came against his former organization.

DateLevelPosABH2B3BHRSOBB
May 12AA@ ReadingC4200100
May 10AAvs. PortlandC3100010
May 9AAvs. PortlandC3000010
May 8AAvs. BinghamtonC3210000

We here at 1BJW are following this young man's progress very closely this year and envision him taking a huge leap forward under the watchful eye of his manager in New Hampshire, the one and only Mr. Sal Fasano. It's very hard to predict when a player of this caliber will get his shot in The Show but if everything goes his way, we can see a possible scenario where he enters Spring Training next season with a legit shot at heading north with the team to Toronto.




I think I can speak for everyone when I say we all totally look forward to the next time the Fisher Cats travel to Trenton to play the Thunder - which is June 3, 4 and 5 - and all the interviews, photos, videos and insight that follows in the weeks after.  

Make sure to show Jay some love by following him on Twitter HERE

2010-12-02

Overvaluing Arencibia



Alright. This may be a blanket statement but I'm just gonna go ahead and say that if you are a fan of any particular MLB organization, then you overvalue their prospects. It's just what we do.

Let's take a look at a Blue Jay specific example: J.P. Arencibia

He was selected in the 1st round, 21st overall, in the 2007 Amateur Draft. Entering the 2010 season, really smart people were writing shit like this about Arencibia. His supporters will quickly point out that he had 2 surgeries - one on his eyes and another on his kidney - which were clearly necessary and allowed him to regain his form.

He will be 25 years old when the 2011 season begins and it now appears like he will get a legit shot at cracking the active roster.

Here are his stats as a pro courtesy of Baseball Reference (notice the dip in 2009, then the resurgence in 2010)

Year Age Tm Lg Lev
G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS





2007 21 Auburn NYPL A-
63 249 228 31 58 17 1 3 25 0 0 14 56 .254 .309 .377 .686





2008 22 2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-A+
126 537 510 70 152 36 0 27 105 0 0 18 101 .298 .322 .527 .850





2008 22 Dunedin FLOR A+
59 262 248 38 78 22 0 13 62 0 0 11 46 .315 .344 .560 .904





2008 22 New Hampshire EL AA
67 275 262 32 74 14 0 14 43 0 0 7 55 .282 .302 .496 .798





2009 23 Las Vegas PCL AAA
116 500 466 67 110 32 1 21 75 0 1 26 114 .236 .284 .444 .728





2010 24 Las Vegas PCL AAA
104 459 412 76 124 36 1 32 85 0 0 38 85 .301 .359 .626 .986





4 Seasons 409 1745 1616 244 444 121 3 83 290 0 1 96 356 .275 .319 .507 .827






I went ahead and plugged those stellar 2010 numbers into the Minor League Equivalency calculator and this is what it spit out:

422 AB 53 R 101 H 29 2B 1 3B 23 HR 59 RBI 28 BB 92 SO .240 BA .291 OBP .474 SLG .765 OPS

This tool takes a body of work from a specific level in the Minors and converts it as though that body of work happened in the Majors. How accurate is it? Who knows.

Now, I'm not going to base an entire argument on this conversion but I think it helps to put things into perspective. A monster MVP type year in Las Vegas is not really worth getting all that worked up about.

Don't get me wrong, Arencibia clearly has power. And it looks like his power will play in the big leagues. Anyone who was lucky enough to watch his totally unreal MLB debut will tell you, he is ready.

What those same people won't tell you is he had just 1 hit for the rest of the year. Obviously he wasn't playing regularly and if I remember correctly when he did start, it always seemed to be against pretty good pitchers.

Matsuzaka
Buchholtz
Haren
Gonzalez
Price
Lester
King Felix
CC
Blackburn

So what is it that I'm trying to say? Here goes:

J.P. Arencibia may end up being a serviceable Major League catcher someday. But it will be how he plays behind the dish that will ultimately determine that. And it's probably gonna take a while till we figure that out.

By the time we do a couple of our other prospects, most notably Travis d'Arnaud and Carlos Perez, will likely be ready to take their respective shots. I would put A.J. Jimenez in that conversation as well.

Let's throw those 3 players numbers at their respective levels into the mighty Minor League Equivalency Calculator and see what comes out.

Why the hell not?

Travis d'Arnaud, again courtesy of BR:

Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS





2007 18 Phillies GULF Rk
41 151 141 18 34 3 0 4 20 4 2 4 23 .241 .278 .348 .626





2008 19 2 Teams 2 Lgs A--A
64 267 239 33 73 18 1 6 30 1 2 23 39 .305 .367 .464 .831





2008 19 Williamsport NYPL A-
48 197 175 21 54 13 1 4 25 1 2 18 29 .309 .371 .463 .833





2008 19 Lakewood SALL A
16 70 64 12 19 5 0 2 5 0 0 5 10 .297 .357 .469 .826





2009 20 Lakewood SALL A
126 540 482 71 123 38 1 13 71 8 4 41 75 .255 .319 .419 .738





2010 21 Dunedin FLOR A+
71 292 263 36 68 20 1 6 38 3 1 20 63 .259 .315 .411 .726





4 Seasons 302 1250 1125 158 298 79 3 29 159 16 9 88 200 .265 .323 .418 .741






His injury shortened / 2 time All Star 2010 season in the pitcher friendly Florida State League had it happened in the big leagues, would have looked like this:

271 AB 23 R 52 H 15 2B 1 3B 4 HR 24 RBI 2 SB 1 CS 13 BB 70 SO .194 BA .239 OBP .296 SLG .535 OPS

A.J. Jimenez, BR:

Year Age Tm Lg Lev G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS





2008 18 Blue Jays GULF Rk
19 52 47 5 9 2 0 0 5 5 2 3 16 .191 .255 .234 .489





2009 19 Lansing MIDW A
80 294 278 30 73 15 1 3 31 5 2 7 72 .263 .280 .356 .636





2010 20 2 Teams 2 Lgs A-A+
72 301 271 36 81 22 0 5 55 17 4 18 61 .299 .340 .435 .775





2010 20 Lansing MIDW A
70 292 262 35 80 22 0 4 54 17 4 18 56 .305 .347 .435 .782





2010 20 Dunedin FLOR A+
2 9 9 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 5 .111 .111 .444 .556





3 Seasons 171 647 596 71 163 39 1 8 91 27 8 28 149 .273 .306 .383 .689






Midwest League to MLB conversation, which ends up being remarkably similar to d'Arnaud:

272 AB 19 R 58 H 14 2B 0 3B 2 HR 29 RBI 11 SB 5 CS 10 BB 66 SO .214 BA .246 OBP .290 SLG .536 OPS.

Unfortunately Carlos Perez only made it as far as the New York Penn League and the Minor League Equivalency calculator doesn't do short seasons.

These 3 young guys are all known as solid defensive catchers. But they all are at least 2 or 3 full seasons away from being seriously considered for the big leagues. Look for d'Arnaud to start in New Hampshire, Jimenez to stay in Dunedin and Perez to get the bulk of the reps in Lansing.

Point being catcher is clearly a position of strength for the organization.

Is J.P. Arencibia the most ready? For sure.

Is he the best we have? Maybe.

Will he bring back the greatest return in a trade? Most likely.

Will his value ever be higher? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm

That's the real question I want to address. Let's just say that J.P. gets his well deserved shot in the big leagues and he puts up numbers that are similar to what he is projected to do. 

A .250 batting average with a .300 OBP and 20 homers with about 60 RBI. That would be if he got the lion's share of work behind the plate.

My question to you is this: Would his trade value increase or decrease after a season like that?

The floor is yours.....

2010-09-12

Weekly Round Up: Sept. 6 - Sept. 12

Consider this your required reading for the week.

Consider this your required viewing for the week. 

Courtesy of John Lott:

“Kyle certainly deserves it,” Anthopoulos said. “He had a great year. His last start was outstanding. It was important for us for him to pitch in a playoff atmosphere. He did a great job. He did everything we asked, and his innings total is pretty much identical to what it was last year.”
Drabek’s first outing will come Wednesday in place of Brett Cecil, whose start has been pushed back to Friday in Boston.
According the current rotation schedule, Drabek would make his home debut Sept. 22 against Seattle and his final start, again at home, against the New York Yankees on Sept. 28. 

It's been confirmed that this game will only be shown on SportsNet One. Now that REALLY sucks for those that can't get the channel. Look for this hashtag to explode: #StupidSportsnetOne 

Courtesy of Damien "Suck My" Cox: 

The confusing part is that with Paul Beeston back in charge, the disliked J.P. Ricciardi gone, a local boy running the front office and an appealing youth movement, it was expected this would the year GTA baseball fans began to feel more enthusiastic about the team.
Instead, attendance suggests the Jays are less popular now than they were last year, and definitely from three or four years ago.
'Tis a puzzlement.
Wtih Jose Bautista swatting homers at a major league-leading pace, an impressive young pitching staff featuring Brandon Morrow and some exciting prospects on the way, one might have thought there was an opportunity at hand for the Jays to recover some lost ground, not lose more. Generally speaking, local media types have approved of the direction of the team, some suggesting this has been nearly a triumphant season despite a record just about .500. Moreover, its not like any of the other pro teams in town are producing championship-quality teams.
So what's the reason behind the drop? Well, the stadium, of course. The Rogers TV issues haven't helped. Having a caretaker manager doesn't exactly get the masses excited. And, as has been the case for a long, long time, no meaningful games in August, let alone September, kills interest. Playing in the tough American League East continues to be an issue, although another competitive season from low payroll Tampa Bay is gradually taking away the division in which the Jays play as a meaningful excuse.
The season began with some shockingly low numbers, but then there was some recovery. Now, it seems the season may end on a low, which has to leave the Jays thoroughly puzzled as to what it will take - if anything - to bring the people back. 

This guy needs to stop writing about baseball. Seriously. 

Courtesy of Klaw: 

Pettitte isn't that great a prospect, as he's old for the level, but New Hampshire starter Zach Stewart was extremely impressive in his seven innings of work, striking out 10 (also against a weak lineup) with just one walk and ten groundouts against just one air out.
Stewart showed four pitches, pitching at 90-96 with sink and some tail with a tight, out-pitch slider at 83-87 that he threw for strikes, even back-dooring it to left-handed hitters for called strikes. His changeup was the biggest surprise, as another scout at the game told me he hadn't seen it this good before; it's mostly straight but has good separation from the fastball at 81-85 and his arm speed is excellent. He also used a fringy curveball with good depth, but he didn't command the pitch as well as he did the slider.
Stewart worked aggressively with everything and had good tempo. He stays over the rubber before driving forward with a long stride, although his arm action is a little long in the back and he pronates relatively late in the delivery. I know several scouts see Stewart as a sinker/slider pen guy, but I see four pitches, a good frame, and a pitcher who likes to attack hitters, and I see a potential No. 2 starter, maybe a No. 3 if the changeup isn't always where it was tonight. 

Klaw had something positive to say about your Toronto Blue Jays. Seriously. 

Courtesy of John Lott: 

Asked whether he wants to succeed his old friend Cito Gaston as manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, Nick Leyva does not hesitate.
"They know I'm interested," he says. "Why wouldn't I be? This organization is going in the right direction. You have a young, aggressive general manager. He's got a plan. You'd be foolish if you didn't want to be part of that."
The general manager, widely credited with Midas-like qualities in his rookie year, is Alex Anthopoulos, now deeply engaged in his next big decision: culling a long list of contestants for the job Gaston will vacate at season's end. 

Do we go outside the organizations? Do we look within the organization? Both have their pros and cons. Discuss. 

Courtesy of Baseball America: 

A team bursting with impact prospects will represent the United States at the 2010 Pan American Qualifying tournament in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The team will scrimmage Sept. 25-28 at USA Baseball's National Training Center against teams from Puerto Rico and Canada, then plays in the tournament Oct. 1-10. The event serves as a qualifier for the 2011 Pan Am Games, with the top eight teams earning entry, and the top six teams also qualify for the 2011 IBAF Baseball World Cup. 

Brian Jeroloman gets the call to represent his country. Great honour for him. I see him as our AAA starting catcher next season with d'Arnaud, Jimenez and Perez breathing down his neck. 

Courtesy of MILB: 

Dunedin Blue Jays closer Matt Daly joined fellow pitcher Joel Carreno as a Dunedin record-breaker in 2010, setting new single-season marks for both saves and appearances in the D-Jays' 4-3 win over Tampa on Saturday.
Daly, 24, notched his 31st save in his 56th appearance, breaking Connor Falkenbach's save mark from 2007 and Ben Weber's appearance mark from 1993.
Falkenbach's saves record was the most recent record set by a Blue Jays player, and with both Daly and Carreno breaking records in 2010, they became the first D-Jays duo to accomplish that feat since pitchers Cameron Reimers (hit-by-pitches) and Aaron Dean (earned runs) did the deed in 2001.
The 13th round draft pick in 2008 out of the University of Hawaii has had a stellar 2010 campaign, going 2-2 with a 2.50 ERA and holding opposing hitters to a .214 batting average. His 31 saves came in 33 chances, a remarkable 94% save rate. He also struck out 63 in 57 2/3 innings. He was named a first-half Florida State League All-Star, as well, pitching in the FSL All-Star Game back on June 12.
Daly now has 56 saves in his three seasons with the Blue Jays organization and 32 overall with Dunedin, having notched a save during a late-season call-up in 2009. 


Straight rip of a press release. Looking forward to seeing how Matt does in the AFL. 

Courtesy of John Lott: 

Bautista opened the year as the leadoff hitter, later batting sixth and seventh before his burgeoning power production prompted manager Cito Gaston to install him in the No. 3 slot on June 24.
Since then, Bautista has batted .296 with 23 homers and 56 RBIs. In the same span, Wells has hit .262 with 11 homers and 35 RBIs, a sharp drop-off from his early pace. At the time of the change, Wells was batting .281 with 16 homers and 42 RBIs. 

So I had this thought. Why not put J-Bau in the clean up spot next year? Move Vernon to the 5 hole and bring Lind back up to the 3 hole. I'm kinda getting tired of seeing Esco take the bat out of J-Bau's hands.

 Courtesy of James Christie: 

Toronto Police have turned over documents removed from Toronto Blue Jays offices to U.S. authorities in connection with the perjury case against seven-time Cy Young winning pitcher Roger Clemens.
Two Toronto officers executed the search in June, an Associated Press report said, and assisted the U.S. Justice Department by forwarding two boxes they obtained, according to Toronto police spokesman Constable Tony Vella. The police spokesman would not say whether the documents were medical records.
The Blue Jays are maintaining silence on the Clemens matter. Blue Jays physician Dr. Ron Taylor said through an associate “he did not know under what circumstances the documents were obtained and will make no comments,” while Blue Jays spokesman Jay Stenhouse said the club will not comment “about matters pending before courts, other than to confirm that it is our policy to comply with all valid legal process.”
Jays president Paul Beeston did not reply to a phone message seeking his comment. 

He is still the very best pitcher I have ever seen in person. Check out his numbers as a Blue Jay. Fucking insane.


 Courtesy of Jeff Blair: 

But I do know Anthopoulos is a smart guy, and I know that smart, first-year general managers pick their spots. You can’t take over as GM of a team managed by someone with Cito Gaston’s track record knowing that your boss – president and chief executive officer Paul Beeston – wants a comfortable exit for the guy who helped bring the city two World Series titles. You can’t fight bitterly for every inch of your turf, not when you know that Beeston stared down the players during last year’s September clubhouse revolt. So you save your powder, knowing you are just weeks away from making your franchise’s most important managerial hire since Gaston was fired.
When you are asked about Snider’s handling, if you are Anthopoulos, you point to his age: 22. You point to nine home runs in 222 at-bats, shrug and say, essentially, “could be worse.” J.P. Arencibia’s lack of playing time? “No,” you would say, “John Buck was an American League all-star." 

I have been meaning to post about The Cito for a while now. I am suppressing the anger. It's becoming un-healthy. 

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick: 

“It’s more about the opportunity I have to pick these guys brains as much as possible and watch games on a closer level,” Arencibia said. “Watch the hitters, watch what’s going on. Sitting in on the catcher-pitcher meetings before games and stuff like that. That’s the way I’m going to have to learn.”
Arencibia has a lot to learn. Following his fabulous August debut, he caught sporadically and when he did, pitchers struggled. He must improve his pitch-calling and his understanding of the major-leagues. He must form relationships with the pitchers he will work with next year. He needs to play.
Even if the Jays plan on re-signing Buck, especially if the Jays plan on re-signing Buck, they could easily ease his workload in September and it wouldn’t hurt him. As for Arencibia, following his second straight successful season at Triple-A he was asked if he was ready for the majors.
“I’m the Pacific Coast League MVP,” Arencibia said with quiet confidence. 

You Don't Know Dick absolutely nails it. Why not play the kid? What the fuck do we owe the Skankees or Tampa Gay? 

2010-06-27

Weekly Round Up: June 21 - 27

Consider this your required reading for the week.  It's more like required viewing and a bit of reading but what you gonna do?

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star:

Thanks to the humanity shown by the Jays, McDonald was home for the final 11 days of his father’s life, alternately laughing and crying but always celebrating a life well lived. McDonald recalled for the fans one of the highlight conversations from that final week.
“One year I struck out only once in high school,” he said. “We had a game where no umpires showed. They knew my dad was an ump so they pulled him out of the crowd. On a two-strike pitch, he punched me out on a curveball. We were talking in the hospital with a bunch of his umpire friends. I said, ‘Dad, was that really a strike?’ He said, ‘Son, it was a strike then and it’s a strike now.’”

This is a touchy subject for me.  I lost my Dad when I was younger and debated on whether or not to add this wonderful story.  In the end, this may end up being the story of the year and I am happy John had an opportunity to spend some time with his father before he passed away.  To hit a homerun in his first at bat back in the line up after his death, considering he had 13 in 1911 plate appearances over his 12 season in the Major Leagues, well that is something very special.      

Courtesy of MLB.com:

Hours prior to the Blue Jays' contest against the Cardinals on Wednesday night at Rogers Centre, an earthquake reading 5.5 on the Richter Scale sent shock waves throughout the city of Toronto, spanning as far as Boston, Chicago, and New York. While an earthquake in Toronto is practically unheard of -- the last one of this magnitude coming nearly 20 years ago -- this is the second time this month the Blue Jays have experienced a series of tremors.

Earthquake in Ontario?  Last year we had a bunch of tornadoes touch down and now this?  Yikes. 

Courtesy of Buck Martinez @ Sportsnet.ca:

BOB OWSNETT ASKS: I've always wondered what's involved in a pitcher's SIMULATED game? Does it take place under the stands with a strike zone target OR out on the diamond with a catcher? Are certain situations set up? Do they pitch a full game or just a few innings? Do they actually face batters, OR is it like throwing in the bullpen? Please enlighten me on this subject.
BUCK: Good question Bob. We always talk about a pitcher throwing a "simulated" game without much explanation. Generally this involves a pitcher coming back from injury. As he builds up his arm strength and stamina getting closer to major league action, the team will set up one of these sim sessions. The idea is to simulate the action of pitching an inning. He will face some of his own hitters, the catcher will call pitches and the pitching coach will serve as the umpire. The inning will consist of a regular sequence of pitches to a batter that has an at-bat. If he gets a base hit he doesn't run the bases but the pitcher will work out of the stretch. When three outs are recorded, the inning is over, the pitcher takes his normal break between innings and resumes the process. This simulated game is the last practice a pitcher has before he makes a "rehab assignment" in the minors as a final tune up before activation onto the major league roster. Of course I would always prefer they simulate no-hitters!

Buck does his weekly Q & A.  Usually pretty basic stuff but this was somewhat enlightening. 

Courtesy of MLBTR:

The Padres have acquired Kyle Phillips from the Blue Jays in exchange for a player to be named later, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (via Twitter). The move represents a homecoming for Phillips, who was born in San Diego.
The 26-year-old broke into the major leagues for the first time last year, compiling five hits in 18 late-season plate appearances for Toronto. Over the course of nine minor league seasons with three different organizations, Phillips has a slash line of .265/.333/.381. Though he came through the minors as a catcher, he has spent most of his time this year at third base, hitting .258/.310/.333 in 71 plate appearances for the Jays' Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas.
Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star points out (via Twitter) that Phillips was stuck behind a slew of players on the Jays' catcher and corner infield depth charts.

Phillips was not going to see anytime behind the plate because of the following guys:
Arencibia 
Jeroloman
d'Arnaud 
Jimenez 
Things look good with respect to depth at the catching position here in Toronto.  Should we shop John Buck and see what we can get in return? 

Courtesy of Bob Elliott @ Toronto Sun: 

Paul Beeston’s November presidential visit to Halladay in Oldsmar, Fla. in was the date when there was no turning back.
“I didn’t tell Paul I didn’t want to come back,” Halladay said. “I said I didn’t want to sign long-term, keep my options open. I wanted a chance to win ...”
Halladay catches himself and adds: “basically I guess by me saying that, I was saying the same thing.”

A lot of interesting stuff came out about the Roy Halladay trade this week.  I'm glad this ordeal is over with and wish him well on the rest of his season.    

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star:

“When (former GM) J.P. (Ricciardi) was still with them, he had come to us and said what about this extension, blah, blah, blah,” Brandy explained. “They offered us a lot of money. Like we said, it’s not about the money, it’s about putting ourselves in the position to attain the goals we set for ourselves. We said at this time we can’t sign that extension because we don’t know where the team’s going.”
The Jays sent an entourage to Tampa to meet with the Halladays at their home in December of ’08 prior to the winter meetings. The option for the best pitcher in baseball at the time was to sign an extension or else the Jays would explore trade opportunities.
“At that point we had been asked for a list of teams,” she said. “At spring training we said, ‘Look, if you’re going to (trade), do it now. Don’t do it during the year because it’s a media frenzy for the team, it’s a media frenzy for us. Either get it done or let us do our job. When they didn’t, we thought we would be here all year. We never went and said we want a trade. They came to us every time.”
 
This interview with Roy's wife Brandy was particularly insightful.   

Courtesy of Bob Elliott @ Toronto Sun: 

Isn’t it nicer, now that the Blue Jays clubhouse is so loose?
That real serious guy, who never smiled or laughed, has left.
In the spring, Shaun Marcum said with Roy Halladay gone the Jays clubhouse would be looser, the Jays would “have fun,” and Marcum would “talk to young guys.”
It was a shot at the departed Halladay’s intensity. People within the Jays organization have said the clubhouse was more relaxed once Halladay left with his all-too-serious attitude.

This story got a few of my fellow Jays bloggers pretty pissed.  What do you guys think?  

2010-06-06

Weekly Round Up : May 31 - June 6

Consider this your required reading for the week.  We got a draft next week.  And we got a shit load of picks.

Courtesy of MLBTR:

The Blue Jays and A's are eyeing Michael Choice, Christian Colon and Justin O'Conner, according to Law.

Click on the links for some more details about the players.  Doesn't look like Choice or O'Conner are going to be available at number 11 but hey, it's Klaw so it doesn't have to be totally accurate right?

Courtesy of ESPN:

J.P. Arencibia, C, Toronto Blue Jays (Triple-A Las Vegas)
On a scouting level, there's little not to like about Arencibia. He was a first-round pick in 2007 for a reason, as he's a big, athletic catcher with well-above-average power. An impatient approach has been his undoing at Triple-A, but he's still capable of going on a hot streak, as he's gone 10-for-23 with three home runs over his past five games to raise his triple-slash line to .263/.312/.500. Twelve walks in 160 at-bats isn't exactly a ratio to write home about, but it is a significant upgrade from previous years. Expect the home-run-happy Jays to add another power bat as early as September, as Arencibia remains their long-term answer at the position.

Another catcher of the future type guy.  Another maybe.  Yawn.  Is D'Arnaud ready yet?

Courtesy of Globe Sports:

Blue Jays president Paul Beeston was perturbed Thursday when he realized that the walk-up for Sunday’s game might be adversely affected by yet another closure of two of the city’s main highways to accommodate the Ride for Heart charity-fundraiser event.
And this after Blue Jays had to relocate a big weekend series against the Phillies to Philadelphia from the Rogers Centre in Toronto because of G20 security concerns at the end of the month,
“We don’t get any breaks no matter what – and I ain’t complaining,” Beeston bellowed over the phone. “But I didn’t realize that both the Gardiner Expressway and the Don Valley Expressway are closed on Sunday.
“It’s hard to have decent crowds when nobody can get there.”

If any of you fine readers are planning on heading down to the Dome to catch the sweep of the Evil Empire take note.  The City of Toronto doesn't view roads as a place for cars anymore.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star

The Jays didn’t just sneak up on the American League in April and May. They emerged from the shadows armed to the teeth, minus former ace Roy Halladay but swinging the home run lumber with reckless abandon, taking no prisoners, bludgeoning opponents to their knees.
Heading into the third month, the favourites must look north with a renewed combination of fear and respect.
Following Tuesday night’s 7-6 loss to the division-leading Rays, here are both glass half-full and half-empty scenarios: the top five reasons why the Jays might be there all year fighting for a wild-card spot, and five reasons why September will be meaningless other than the annual battle for third.

Dick plays good cop, bad cop.  It's funny but I consider myself a realist when it comes to Blue Jays baseball but even I think something special is going on right now with our team.  It defies logic but it is happening.....

Courtesy of National Post:

Mike (Samuel) Wilner, who covers the Toronto Blue Jays for the team’s flagship radio station, has been taken off the job for the weekend series with the New York Yankees following a confrontation Wednesday with Jays manager Cito Gaston. The disciplinary action was taken by Wilner’s station, The Fan 590, which is owned by Rogers Communications. Rogers also owns the Blue Jays.
During Gaston’s daily media scrum Wednesday afternoon, Wilner raised questions about the way Gaston had used his bullpen in Tuesday night’s 7-6 loss to Tampa Bay. A brief but tense exchange followed.
Later on his Fan 590 blog, Wilner wrote at length about the exchange, asserting that Gaston had “painted himself into a corner” by using relievers Shawn Camp and Scott Downs too early. Wilner also wrote that Gaston had “belittled” him in front of other reporters.
Friday, Wilner was absent from the game and his usual post-game call-in show. A source close to the situation said management had “benched” him for the weekend. It was unclear when he would return to his post-game show.
“My only comment is that I have the weekend off,” Wilner said in response to an email seeking comment.

Enough has been written and said about this clusterfuck already.  On one hand you have douchebag Wilner and on the other you have past his expiry date The Cito.  Doesn't really matter who you believe because they both will probably (hopefully) be doing something else next year.  I get the issue of censorship angle and what that means to the freedom of press and blah, blah, blah.  But don't you think it's better to save those bullets for an issue that actually fucking matters.  Like naming sources in articles for example.

Bottom line from where I sit: Wilner is a fucking dickhead that thinks he is the story.  And he just got what he had coming to him for a looooooong time.  I commend his friends in the business jumping to his aid in a time of need, that's what friends are suppose to do for one another.  But his angle on the Jays is boring and self serving.  You cannot manage a professional baseball team like you would a fantasy team.

One last thing Mike Samuel: it's called a suspension not a weekend off.   

2010-04-18

Weekly Round Up : Apr. 12 - 18


Please consider this your required reading for the week.  Inflatable Raft met his agent for the first time at a Hooter's in Cancun.  Sweet.

Courtesy of MLBTR:

Toronto's supporters can still hope, though. If Wells hits well this year and has healthy enough legs underneath him to impress scouts and turn around his defensive numbers, teams may be willing to trade for Wells and pick up some of the money he's owed. Jerry Hairston Jr., Mark Kotsay and Rick Ankiel lead the next crop of free agent center fielders, so teams aren't about to find elite solutions on the open market. The Blue Jays will not be able to trade Wells without paying the vast majority of his contract, but they can dream about a deal that allows them to shed $10-20MM.

Trade Vernon?  Is anyone still interested in this idea after his hot start?

Courtesy of MILB.com:

Starting ... relieving, it doesn't seem to matter what the role is to Luis Perez of the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. The 25-year-old left-hander was used for three hitless innings of relief on Opening Day, and he made his first start of the season Tuesday against the host Reading Phillies. The results were the same -- Perez was unhittable both times.

Luis Perez is on the 40 man roster.  He wouldn't be there if he sucked.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star:

There are mixed reviews on Hechavarria as a defender, but the fact is he is now on the clock, having been signed and optioned to the minors. The Jays paid him an up-front signing bonus of $4 million, with $500,000 for 2010 and the rest staggered over the next three years (2011-13). The $4.5 million will count as major-league payroll pushing the Jays' 2010 total up over $66 million. Using his first of three options this year means that he is being fast-tracked to the majors. He needs to be on the 25-man roster by Opening Day of 2013 or he will have to be placed on waivers and likely claimed. But by all reports that is not going to happen. The more likely scenario is that he is the Jays starting shortstop early in the 2011 season with John McDonald as his tutor. 

Dick fucked up the story (again) and needed to be corrected by someone that hasn't lost their mind.  Click here for his correction tweet.

Courtesy of Joe Cowley @ Chicago Sun-Times

Forget the obvious in failing attendance and a shrinking Blue Jays payroll. You can flip on the hotel television and skim through the stations to get the pulse of what's going on. It's NHL, junior hockey, college hockey, high school hockey, Justin Bieber, Canadian Olympians, and more hockey.
Somewhere between celebrity Texas hold 'em tournaments and MuchMusic videos, you might, just might, get a Jays highlight.
After Tuesday's game, a fan asked a local talk show host if building a new stadium would help. Even the host -- Canadian, I'm guessing -- admitted that no one would care after a year.

This guy got destroyed on twitter by the Toronto faithful.  I hit him up with this.

Courtesy of Jeremy Sandler @ National Post:

The article also relied on quotes from Alex Rios, a former Blue Jay who was booed lustily during this week's series, and White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen and pitcher Freddy Garcia, both Venezuelans.
It did not offer a chance for anyone currently with the Blue Jays to respond, though a response of sorts did come immediately with several unflattering revisions to the writer's Wikipedia entry. Cowley was also taken to task by Blue Jays fans on Twitter, who created the hashtag #WhyJoeCowleyHatesToronto to track their collective efforts.

By the time this story was published, most of us had had enough.      

Courtesy of FanGraphs:

Fred Lewis is pretty clearly a Major League quality player. In 1,048 plate appearances in the major leagues since 2006, Lewis has recorded a .277/.355/.420 line, showcasing good plate discipline and slightly below average power. His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Courtesy of Beyond The Boxscore:

Toronto almost definitely isn't going to continue to play as well as they have so far this season, but they continue to show that they're in a better position than many made them out to be a few months ago. For practically nothing, the Blue Jays managed to get their hands on a useful player with some team control left. Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos has made a pretty good impression so far in his tenure replacing J.P. Ricciardi, and that should continue with nice moves like this.

Both of these pieces discuss the Fred Lewis trade which is tough to do considering we have not actually completed the trade. 

Courtesy of Baseball America:

No. 4 BRAD MILLS, LHP BLUE JAYS
Brad MillsTeam: Triple-A Las Vegas (Pacific Coast)
Age: 25
Why He's Here: 1-0, 0.79, 11 1/3 IP, 9 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 18 SO
The Scoop: Life has been good lately for Blue Jays lefties. Ricky Romero nearly threw a no-hitter earlier in the week for Toronto, while Double-A New Hampshire's Luis Perez has been nearly unhittable as well (see below). Mills doesn't have plus velocity, but he's been able to get hitters out by locating and mixing his pitches, including a 70 changeup on the 20-80 scale and a sharp curveball.
2010 Stats

No. 8 TRAVIS D'ARNAUD, C BLUE JAYS
Travis D'ArnaudTeam: high Class A Dunedin (Florida State)
Age: 21
Why He's Here: .400/.406/.667 (12-for-30), 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 RBIs, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1-for-1 SB
The Scoop: When you're involved in a series of trades involving Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor and Brett Wallace, it's easy to get overlooked. Maybe that's the case with d'Arnaud, the former Phillies farmhand who went to the Blue Jays in the Halladay trade. His quick bat and hand-eye coordination make him difficult to strike out, and he's flashed power with two home run in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. With J.P. Arencibia's struggles in Triple-A, d'Arnaud is looking more and more like Toronto's catcher of the future.
2010 Stats

No. 13 LUIS PEREZ, LHP BLUE JAYS
Luis PerezTeam: Double-A New Hampshire (Eastern)
Age: 24
Why He's Here: 1-0, 0.00, 10 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO
The Scoop: Sure, he's repeating Double-A, but Perez has thrown 10 innings of one-hit ball to start the season. Perez doesn't have the otherworldly strikeouts of some of the other pitchers on the Hot Sheet, but he gets his fastball up to 93-94 mph with heavy sink to keep the ball on the ground. He might fit in best as a reliever in the Blue Jays' bullpen down the road, but if he can continue to befuddle hitters he might get a chance as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
2010 Stats

3 of the top 13 players mentioned in the "Prospect Hot Sheet" represent your Toronto Blue Jays.  Everybody loves prospect porn!

Nerding it up in Simulation Nation:

According to OOTP11 your Toronto Blue Jays will go 5 - 1 this week coming up including a sweep of KC!
Of note: Shawn Camp was suspended 9 games for initiating an on field disturbance.
For the year: 11 - 8.  1 game behind Tampa Bay for first place.

According to MLB 10 The Show we will go 4 - 2 for the week. 
Of note: Brandon Morrow and Shawn Camp have 3 wins and are among the leaders in wins for the AL.
For the year: 13 - 6.  2 games behind Boston.

2010-04-06

D-Jays announce 2010 Opening Day Roster

The Dunedin Blue Jays have announced their roster to start out the 2010 Florida State League season, with 21 players returning to Dunedin from the 2009 season. 33 players in all make up the Dunedin Opening Day roster.

Taking over for long time Dunedin manager Omar Malave will be Clayton McCullough, who will start his fourth year as a manager in the Blue Jays organization. McCullough managed the Single-A Lansing Lugnuts in 2008 and 2009. His coaching staff includes returning pitching coach Darold Knowles, who will celebrate his 50th season in professional baseball this year, and his 30th as a coach. The new hitting coach will be Justin Mashore, who worked with McCullough in their two years at Lansing.

The most notable newcomer to Dunedin is catcher Travis D'Arnaud, one of the three prospects received in the offseason trade that sent perennial Toronto Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies. D'Arnaud was named the #4 prospect in the Phillies organization by Baseball America before the trade was made, and his arrival in the Blue Jays organization creates quite the catching prospect tandem with Las Vegas 51's (Triple-A) backstop J.P. Arencibia, who is likely to make his Major League debut much sooner than later. Joining him behind the dish are returning catchers Matt Liuzza and C.J. Ebarb, along with newcomer Yan Gomes, a Florida native who had a great pro debut in 2009 and could be someone to watch.

The pitching staff sees returning hurlers Andrew Liebel, Ryan Page and Chuck Huggins in the starting rotation. Joining them will be Joel Carreno and the exciting young right-hander Henderson Alvarez, a 20-year-old who impressed at Lansing last season. Matt Daly will resume his closing duties that he inherited upon his late-season promotion to Dunedin in 2009. Returners Dan DeLucia, Alan Farina, Dumas Garcia, Kyle Ginley and Boomer Potts will join him in the bullpen. Newcomers to the Dunedin bullpen in 2010 include lefty specialist Frank Gailey and long-time minor leaguer B.J. Lamura, who pitched with Long Island in the Independent League last season.

The infield will be crowded to begin the year and will bring a lot of competition in the early part of 2010. Returning from last year's team are first round draft picks Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens. They'll be joined by former second round pick John Tolisano and former fifth round pick Tyler Pastornicky. All four players are expected to get significant playing time at second base, shortstop and third base and will be moved around to maximize their contributions. Ahrens begins the season on the disabled list, meaning that Tolisano might get the first crack at playing the hot corner to begin the year. Returning 2009 FSL All-Star Raul Barron will reprise his super utility role with the D-Jays in 2010. Justin McClanahan, Bryan Kervin and hulking first baseman Michael McDade will join him amongst the other infielders.

The outfield sees the return of Dunedin's R. Howard Webster Award winner from 2009, Moises Sierra. He will begin the season on the disabled list. Joining him are returners Bradley McElroy and Brain Van Kirk, along with newcomers Daniel Perales and Welinton Ramirez. Dunedin opens their season on Thursday, April 8, when the D-Jays take on the Clearwater Threshers for their Opening Night Celebration. Tickets are still available and can be purchased by calling (727) 733-9302.

Analysis:

33 players on a baseball team, 20 of the hitters? It's going to be difficult finding all these players at bats.

I am very much looking forward to reading about the progress of catcher Travis D'Arnaud. Earlier I did a detailed post about him on his birthday. If you want to see it, click here.

2010-02-10

Happy Birthday To Our New Catcher Of The Future!

 

Travis D'Arnaud turns 21 years old today.  He was drafted out of high school in the first round, 37th overall, of the 2007 amateur entry draft by the Phillies.  He received an $832,500 signing bonus which was enough for him to break his commitment to play college ball at Pepperdine with his brother Chase.  Your Toronto Blue Jays selected 38th overall that year and it was no secret the team coveted D'Arnaud.  We ended up taking LHP Brett Cecil and no one can be really disappointed with that.  He made 17 starts for us in 2009 winning 7 games.  His numbers were not great but he got his first taste of the show and should benefit from the experience moving forward.

Back to D'Arnaud.  He stands 6'2 and weights in at 195lbs.  By all reports he is an above average defensive catcher.  His throwing arm is strong and accurate.  He has quick feet.  Words like athletic and agile are used to describe his movements behind the plate.  Scouts praise his game management skills and his "feel" for the position.  Things like calling games, setting up the hitters and working together with the pitchers are tremendously underrated abilities when discussing catchers.  To the casual observer these integral parts of the game of baseball go unnoticed.  Most people can not comprehend the amount of trust a catcher must build up over time with every member of the pitching staff.

You see I use to catch when I played hardball.  In fact, I played against The Human Rain Delay growing up and he too was a catcher.  Being from Georgetown, I played on more than my fair share of absolutely horrible baseball teams and consequently I spent A LOT of time in the crouch receiving pitches.  Back then Georgetown was a small town with not much more than 25,000 people living there and our team played in the same league as some heavyweights.  Currently LastRow500's still catches every week with his hardball team.

Over time, I began to view the game of baseball differently because of my time behind the plate.  Catcher is the only position on the field that is physically facing all the others and we see everything.  Every detail.  This is particularly evident when a runner with above average speed gets on base.  Gifted catchers have the ability to neutralize the running game.  Pitchers obviously play a big role in this as well.  If a pitcher is able to shorten his leg kick and vary his tempo on the mound then this gives the catcher a better opportunity to succeed.  They really are a team within a team.  Together they are called the battery.     

But make no mistake the catcher is the on field general.  You can control the flow of the game.  You set up all the outfield cut offs, position the defense based on how you are going to pitch to a hitter, relay all the messages from the coaches in the dug out and communicate with the pitcher on what to throw and where.  You must know the other teams hitters and their strengths.  You must know what they are trying to accomplish every at bat and do everything you can to prevent them from executing.  You have to know what your pitcher is and isn't capable of doing.  What pitches he feels comfortable throwing in which situations.  You also have to remember how you got every hitter out previously and try not to fall into patterns.  Teams pick up on pitchers tendencies very quickly and make adjustments.  You have to counter those adjustments but only after they catch on to what you are trying to do.  This is the element of the game that I truly love.  It is similar to a game of chess where every action has a reaction.

But there is so much more to the position.  Take blocking balls for example.  When I go to games at the Dome I stand up and cheer when a catcher makes a big block at a crucial time.  Most people look at me like I'm crazy.  They have no idea.  Keeping the double play in order is invaluable at any level of ball but it is especially important in the big leagues.  Some pitches when thrown effectively MUST end up in the dirt.  Any kind of splitter or sinkerball has to start in the bottom half of the strikezone and finish out of it to be effective.  Curveballs and sliders both have a downward tilt on them and the good ones finish low.  Even changeups have to be kept down to a certain degree, especially palmballs.  What most people tend to overlook is the fact that the pitcher has to trust the catcher entirely in order to do this with runners on base.  They both have to be fearless and be completely in sync.  This certainly doesn't happen overnight.

If D'Arnaud is as good as he is being billed then I am VERY excited to see this kid play.  It is easy to pick out a great defensive catcher from the rest when you finally do see one.  After some reflection former Rookie of the Year, 7 time All Star and 3 time Gold Glover Benito Santiago is the last guy to wear our uniform that I can recall.  He only started 99 games behind the plate for us in the late 90's.  Those who saw him should recognize he played the position on a different level.

I haven't even mentioned his hitting yet.  It's not quite as impressive but he was drafted as an 18 year old  high schooler and would just now be entering his senior year of college had he gone.  It is a bit early, but let's compare his numbers to the other guys we have in the system.  Keep in mind the highest level he has played in the minors is A ball.  It will be interesting to see where if he starts the 2010 season.  If it's not in AA you have to figure he will be promoted to that level at some point.

Player NameStat TypeBavgObpSlgOPSGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOHR2BRRBISB
John BuckMLB.235.298.40770558419132184501047702594101515000.120.180.370.440.01
Raul ChavezMLB.231.266.3045702636804815727176542311150.030.100.180.250.02
John BuckMinor.268.337.429766604219430458914366635518201984300.110.240.500.590.03
Raul ChavezMinor.254.305.33764213834639470117822255153717272846400.040.160.340.390.01
J.P. ArencibiaMinor.266.305.46777230512041683208525120501582710.170.280.550.670.00
Brian JerolomanMinor.241.372.338710349109612626457215128102312790.040.160.360.370.00
Travis D'ArnaudMinor.267.326.42074623186212223059223121138681370.100.260.530.520.06
J.P. ArencibiaCollege.333.413.5529651746901452304823316520771050.190.280.830.950.01
Brian JerolomanCollege.285.420.39981918258911016822015115301231100.080.120.600.630.02

For a yearly breakdown of his stats, click here and you can find his splits here.

I punched his 2009 season into the Minor League Equivalency calculator.  This is a fun tool to play around with.  You enter a player's minor league stats, select his current league and team, and it will spit out equivalent stats at the major league level.  The results indicate he needs to spend some more time developing.

In 505 major league at bats he would have hit .177 with a .218 on base percentage, 7 bombs, 45 RBI, 23 doubles and 5 steals.  There is really no way to tell how accurate that is and it assumes he played 2009 in the majors instead of A ball so take it for what it's worth.

I have heard him described in the media as the third guy or the catcher in the Halladay trade.  D'Arnaud is unquestionably the furthest prospect away from reaching the majors that we received in return for our ace.  But if he plays batcatcher the way it is supposed to be played, then I will no problem waiting patiently for him to develop.  And whatever he ends up doing with the stick in his hand is gravy.

Quickly:

Our boy Jay Ballz has done a couple of interviews with Travis.  You can find them here and here.

Jay was also able to catch up with Travis's brother Chase - who currently plays in AA - and spoke with him about the sibling rivalry.