Boy Wonder does it again!
The Trade:
Your Toronto Blue Jays received SS Yunel Escobar and LHP JoJo Reyes in exchange for SS Alex Gonzalez, SS Tyler Pastornicky and LHP Tim Collins.
Analysis:
For starters, I will send it over to our boy Jesse for his take on the deal:
This is a challenge deal. A challenge deal (a term created I believe by Bill James) is where teams trade players of exact same positions, pitting those players against one another. A challenge deal is much easier to evaluate in the long run because players at the same position are directly comparable.
Some examples of other challenge deals are:
Toronto perspective: shortstop Yunel Escobar is better than shortstop Alex Gonzalez (regardless of their stats this year) and minor league shortstop Tyler Pastornicky (playing “eh” in A-Advanced, though he’s still young); and left-hander JoJo Reyes is better than left-hander Tim Collins.
The Atlanta perspective is the exact opposite: Gonzalez and/or Pastornicky is/are better than Escobar. Collins is better than Reyes. Anyway, three players are better than two.
By the way, Sal Fasano is a fan of Reyes. Likes the way he pitches.
I neither defend nor disparage the deal right now: Time will settle the winner and loser of this one, and probably pretty clearly, too.
I will add that Toronto’s system has a plentitude of middle infield prospects, causing Pastornicky to become expendable. It is very likely that Lansing shortstop Ryan Goins now gets promoted to Dunedin, where I believe he will outperform Pastornicky’s production. This moves Justin Jackson back to a full-time role at shortstop with the Lugnuts.
To hear what Jesse has to say about Tiny Tim Collins click ahead to 5:47. I must warn you, it may pain you to do so.
More Analysis:
I, unlike Jesse, am ready to call this one right now: AA fleeced em. I mean he should be wearing a ski mask into the office tomorrow.
First off, we got the best player in the deal. Hands down. No disrespect to Gonzo and the career year he is having but.....
At this time last year Joe Polanski had Yunel Escobar rated in his top 100 baseball players, of any position in both leagues, including pitchers. No way does a guy lose that type of ability in half a season. It's just not possible. Christ, he managed to get an MVP vote in 2009.
For argument sake, let's examine the offensive data. Keep in mind his 2009 totals for AVG, OBP and Runs were good enough for top 25 in the NL. More importantly his .373 batting average with runners in scoring position ranked third in the entire Major Leagues. Also worth noting, he has hit .312 in the second half of the season for his career.
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | TB |
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| 2007 | 24 | ATL | NL | 94 | 355 | 319 | 54 | 104 | 25 | 0 | 5 | 28 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 44 | .326 | .385 | .451 | .837 | 118 | 144 |
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| 2008 | 25 | ATL | NL | 136 | 587 | 514 | 71 | 148 | 24 | 2 | 10 | 60 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 62 | .288 | .366 | .401 | .766 | 103 | 206 |
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| 2009 | 26 | ATL | NL | 141 | 604 | 528 | 89 | 158 | 26 | 2 | 14 | 76 | 5 | 4 | 57 | 62 | .299 | .377 | .436 | .812 | 116 | 230 |
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| 2010 | 27 | ATL | NL | 75 | 301 | 261 | 28 | 62 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 31 | .238 | .334 | .284 | .618 | 70 | 74 |
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| 4 Seasons | 446 | 1847 | 1622 | 242 | 472 | 87 | 4 | 29 | 183 | 17 | 13 | 180 | 199 | .291 | .368 | .403 | .771 | 105 | 654 |
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| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 671 | 589 | 88 | 171 | 32 | 1 | 11 | 66 | 6 | 5 | 65 | 72 | .291 | .368 | .403 | .771 | 105 | 238 |
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If those aren't nerdy enough for you. I suggest you take a look at
Fan Graphs.
Here are all his 14 home runs from the 2009 season courtesy of
Hit Tracker. Click the link for some videos of his bombs. Start by watching the 459 footer he hit in Arizona off John Garland. Love the trot.
What about his defense at shortstop?
Well let's shoot it over to the guy that has been watching him since he got to the big leagues former Blue Jay manager Bobby Cox. Here is what he had to say in February of this year before he put him in the dog house:
"Escobar, to me, is a Gold Glove winner at short," Cox added. "He's as good as it gets."
For the 2010 season he has the most assists as a shortstop in the NL to go along with a top three range factor.
How about his contract info?
According to
Cot's Baseball Contracts he has 2.121 years of Major League Service time and is arbitration eligible for 2011-2013. At that point, he can become a free agent. He is currently being paid $435,000, which is just above the league minimum. He is represented by the
Wasserman Media Group which is only worth noting because they are not Scott Boras.
In the interests of being thorough I must mention a few things. He has been labeled as having an attitude. Now I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know what that means. I can guess he plays the game with the same fire and passion that every other Cuban I have ever seen in the big leagues but here are the facts courtesy of Alden Gonzalez / MLB.com:
- In 2009 he was removed from a game on June 14 because of a lack of focus.
- On June 25, he took exception to a charged error by gesturing toward the press box and pouting in his next at-bat.
- He was benched by his manager for disciplinary reasons.
- He was deemed abrasively brash by opponents.
- all while continuing a tense relationship with the Atlanta media.
"People would perceive it as being flashy, but he's always said, 'That's just me," said Braves bench coach Chino Cadahia, who's been Escobar's interpreter since he made it to the big leagues.
"It's just a lot of people don't understand his whole story. But I'm not defending him to some of the things he's done, because they've been wrong, and I've told him they've been wrong. But at the same time, if they understood where he came from, how he was able to get out [of Cuba] and the stuff he had to do to do this, sometimes you understand a little better some of his actions."
"He has to be himself most of the time," Cadahia said. "But being himself, he has to be able to control being himself, also. We definitely want him to be Yunel Escobar. But he can be Yunel Escobar and not show anybody up."
Yunel had this to say about it:
"Us Latin players are a bit aggressive, and sometimes that gives off a bad impression," Escobar said in Spanish "We play a brash game, an aggressive game, and that's what I've been demonstrating here.
"People have misinterpreted those mannerisms. But honestly, I'm not a bad kid, and I don't disrespect anybody. I respect the game."
"This is the year I'm trying to focus on [learning English], because I've already been here three years since 2007, and a lot of people have wanted to talk to me, but I couldn't talk," Escobar said. "I'm getting tired of that. I have to express myself to people because a lot of people want to get to know me, but they can't because of the language.
"Things happened last year where there were just misinterpretations that brought me problems I've never really had before."
"Every year that passes, I feel more like this is my home, and I gain a little bit more confidence," Escobar said. "Since I got here in 2007, I've felt a bit out of place. I didn't know how they were going to treat me, because it was the first time I was in a big league clubhouse."
I think now is the time I drop this on you.
Must read.
All that and he hits into a lot of double plays. Like over 20 a year. And you could call him a
little soft. But that is it. Promise.
Some More Analysis:
On centerpiece Yunel Escobar:
"It's fair to say that if Yunel Escobar was performing like he did last year, it would have been a much more difficult deal to make," GM Alex Anthopoulos said.
“If Yunel was doing what he did in the past, he’s not available to us and this trade does not present itself. This was an opportunity for us to take a chance on a very talented player."
“We control the player for three years after this,”
“We feel as though he has a chance to be a core player. Certainly he’s having a down year but, again, when you look at what he did the years prior to that, (we are) getting a very high-ceiling, talented shortstop that was arguably coming into this year as one of the better young shortstops in the game.”
"It's never a bad thing to have two great players,"
"We're just as high on Adeiny Hechavarria. We absolutely believe he's going to be an All-Star caliber shortstop. When we get a chance to add another guy like that in Yunel Escobar, we're never going to shy away from the talent."
“When you have depth at premium positions … It’s an absolutely outstanding problem to have,”
"I certainly believe Alex Gonzalez is going to continue to have a great year and help the Braves get to the playoffs, their aspirations are to win the World Series, but Yunel Escobar, long-term, is a guy we think is equally as talented ... and he certainly has greater upside."
"Where there's smoke there's fire and we weren't going to roll our eyes at that,"
"Everyone we've spoken to has said, first and foremost, this is a good kid and that was the number one factor for us. There have been run-ins, other issues, and I think it's a product maybe of the style of game he plays, maybe it didn't mesh well with the Atlanta Braves."
“Everybody that we spoke to — former teammates, coaches, minor-league staff, everybody — the response was the that this was a good kid,”
"Jose (Bautista) said he was a good kid, quiet, not a problem in the clubhouse at all. But he does play a flashy kind of game and I think being in the environment we have here for him, I think this is an opportunity for him to thrive."
"When we looked at it, we said, 'Well, we're either going to go off of three years of track record that Yunel Escobar has showed as a young man, or the three months that he's performed so far.'"
"We think there could be some mechanical things that can be addressed in his swing, and I think he may need a fresh start and a new organization and a city like Toronto that embraces Latin players,"
"There's no question his power has been lacking from what it has been in previous years,"
"The biggest concern for us was the lack of power and we really had our scouts focus on batting practice and make sure the raw power was there and we were pretty diligent about examining his health. The raw power is still there, and we think it's just a matter of making some tweaks."
"He can still drive the ball in batting practice. I think it's just a matter of making some tweaks."
"If you look at the Cuban player, they play with a lot of flare, a lot of emotion, a lot of flash,"
"But I think it can be exciting for fans. Toronto fans love watching a high energy player who brings a lot of passion and desire to the shortstop position and I think he's going to be able to thrive in this environment."
"Just talking to Cito Gaston, he said Tony Fernandez was very flashy as well and he thrived here, he was a fan favourite."
"I think Yunel coming to a city like Toronto — that a lot of Latin players seem to love and enjoy for obvious reasons — it’s a fresh start for him. It’s a new organization. Getting with people like (manager) Cito (Gaston) and (hitting coach) Dwayne Murphy, that will unlock some things.”
"We did a lot of homework and we feel like this is going to be an environment for him to really thrive."
"At the same time acquiring someone like Yunel Escobar along with Jo-Jo Reyes -- two young, talented players (was key). Going into the season, Escobar was widely regarded as one of the best young shortstops in the game. He's 27 and he's controlled (rights-wise) for three years beyond 2010 and he also has a chance to be a core player."
On JoJo Reyes:
"(The Pacific Coast League) is a tough league to pitch in and we want to try to get the best out of Jo-Jo," Anthopoulos said "He's had time in the big leagues before. He was a highly touted prospect. It's just a matter of getting him into the right environment to get some success, to get some confidence going. His stuff is certainly there."
"He hasn't had a great performance this year,"
"We have some scouts that feel pretty strongly about him and think he has a chance to bounce back and be the player he was in the past."
On Alex Gonzalez:
"The production and the results speak for themselves," Anthopoulos said. "As I told Alex, the two most professional position players that I've probably been around in my time in the game have been Scott Rolen and Alex Gonzalez.
"Just the way he carries himself and the way he conducts himself, he's a tremendous teammate and a quiet leader -- not an easy guy to part with."
"It wasn't a reflection on Alex at all. He's absolutely exceeded any expectations we had for him. He's a plus player, a plus defender. What a tremendous competitor, tremendous person and good role model for the younger players. That's what made this so complicated."
On prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky
"Both guys are very talented," Anthopoulos said. "I give the Braves a lot of credit. I think they did a great job from a scouting standpoint. The makeup of both players is outstanding. I spoke to both of them today. They're both tremendous kids, very hard workers, outstanding baseball players and very tough, intense competitors."
"We were reluctantly willing to give up both players,"
"But it was not an easy decision to make."
“We think Tim Collins can pitch in the big leagues right now as a 20-year-old with a great arm,”
“That was the cost to doing it.”
Boy Wonder has spoken. It should be noted he sees Escobar as a top of the order hitter.
Conclusion:
I didn't even bother to mention the other players in the deal. It's not because I forgot but more because this trade, to me, boils down to this:
We just traded a potential lefty bullpen stud, a potential back up infielder and a season and a half of a 33 year old Major League shortstop we got for nothing.
FOR
A potential All Star and a lefty with big league starting experience.
