Blue Jays Fair to Middlin’ Ways Continue

It is hard to believe now but there was a time for a glorious decade from the mid-1980’s through the 1994 strike and season cancellation when the Toronto Blue Jays were a dynasty that consistently beat the MLB odds and would play before packed sellout crowds at what was then known as the Sky Dome. Things have simply not been the same since that work stoppage, as fans turned away from the Blue Jays and baseball in droves and the team has been unable to keep up with the Jonses, or make that the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.

The Blue Jays broke even with the MLB odds this year as they were 81-81 but 16 games out of first place. This has been the pattern of the Blue Jays in recent years, as they will often give fans a hint or tease at success only to then fall back as a small market type of team that actually plays in Canada’s largest market and a market with plenty of funds.

Pitching was the biggest reason for Toronto’s problems this year, as they ranked 24th in the major leagues for staff earned run average and 21st in quality starts. The poor performance by the pitching staff wasted a solid offensive season that saw the Blue Jays ranked a surprising 6th for runs scored and 5th in home runs. It is interesting to note the lack of a home field advantage for the Blue Jays as they won 39 games on the road compared to just 42 at home. Much of this has to do with the antiseptic sterile environment of Rogers Centre and a town that is obsessed with hockey’s Maple Leafs.

The bullpen blew a staggering 25 saves and lacks a quality starter at the 4th and 5th slots. Filling those slots will be the priority of the management staff in the off season. There is considerable depth in the Jays' developmental system and they expect to develop their own rising talent to fill other needs on their own.

The anchor of the team is, of course, Jose Bautista, who hit .302 with a whopping 43 home runs and 103 RBI, in 2011. Another Toronto mainstay is Yunel Escobar, who hit .290 and scored 77 runs with an ailing elbow down the stretch, but is expected to be healed when spring training begins.

With division rival Tampa Bay winning on a shoe string budget, there are simply no more excuses for teams like Toronto and 2012 will be a pivotal season.

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Be sure to follow 1BlueJaysWay on Twitter for stats, updates and insight.

Weekly Round Up: Oct. 25 - Oct. 31

Consider this your required reading for the week.

Consider this your required viewing for the week. And consider this a close second place.

Courtesy of 500 Level Fan:

I no longer think it is a terrible idea to sign Manny Ramirez.

In two words, here’s why:

Motivation.  Legacy.

In this writer’s opinion, Manny Ramirez has truly been motivated five times in his career:

1. 1994: His rookie year in Cleveland, to prove he belonged in the majors – .269 average, 17 HR, 60 RBI, .878 OPS, 2nd in ROY voting

2. 2000: His final season in Cleveland, a contract year – .351 average, 38 HR, 122 RBI, league-leading 1.154 OPS, All-Star, Silver Slugger

3. 2001: His first year in Boston, to prove he was worth his contract – .306 average, 41 HR, 125 RBI, 1.014 OPS, All-Star, Silver Slugger

4. 2004 World Series: To prove he could perform in the World Series – .412 average, 1 HR, 4 RBI in 4 games, 1.088 OPS, World Series Champion

5. Second half of 2008: First arrival in LA, to prove Boston wrong for trading him – .396 average, 17 HR, 53 RBI in 53 games, 1.232 OPS, 4th in NL MVP voting

There’s no way a beat up Manny Ramirez was motivated upon arriving in Chicago last year, to a team that doubted him and was already out of the pennant race.

So why will he be motivated in 2011?  Because of that second word: legacy.

Jeremy has got some great points right there. I'm still torn. Gonna have to wait and see if the White Sox offer arbitration.....cuz if they do, than forget about Man Ram in Toronto.

Courtesy of Chris Zelkovich:

The Toronto Blue Jays payroll will increase for the 2011 season and could rise even more if the team is in contention next summer.

Rogers Media president Keith Pelley said in an interview Wednesday that the team’s payroll will increase over the winter, mainly because of the number of Blue Jays eligible for arbitration. Those eligible include American League home run champion Jose Bautista and pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shaun Marcum.

“Obviously, the payroll will need to be increased to be able to sustain the team we had this year and then compete for a championship,” Pelley said. “This team is poised to be a competitive, exciting ball club for the next 10 years.”

A new talking head in charge. Fan-fucking-tastic.

Courtesy of You Don`t Know Dick:

How about from the player’s side, Bautista’s feelings of loyalty to the Jays for giving him the opportunity to play every day after four years of journeyman status? Or what would be best for him moving forward — a multi-year deal after just one superb season, with lingering doubts playing on the bottom-line offer, or a second fabulous season that would erase any doubts and set him up for life?

“It depends on how you look at it,” Bautista said. “From my point of view as a player, I’m not worried by any concern that the team might have whether I can repeat it or not. I have no problems with an arbitration deal and going back out there and hopefully doing as well as I did this year. Maybe I won’t hit 54 home runs. I want to be a productive player. That being said, I can also hit 60.”

Congats on the Hank Aaron Award! So where does he finish in the MVP vote? 

Courtesy of John Lott:

Butterfield refused comment on his other options, but he would have had no difficulty finding work elsewhere. He is highly respected throughout baseball and has always been popular with his players.
He said he does not know Farrell well, but developed respect for his work as Boston’s pitching coach over the past four seasons. Former Red Sox pitching great Curt Schilling was among many of Butterfield’s baseball friends who spoke highly of Farrell, he said.
“Curt Schilling is someone I have the utmost respect for, and he thinks John Farrell is one of the brightest, best men in all of baseball,” Butterfield said. “That was certainly good enough for me.”
Butterfield played five years in the minor leagues and began his pro coaching career at 26, eventually managing five years in the minors. Now 52, he remains confident he will manage in the majors.

I give him a lot respect for sticking around with the team. Now go out there and make Adam Lind into a first baseman, God damn it.

Courtesy of Roto Graphs:

Because as bad as last year looked, there was a progression in his numbers that might give his owners some hope. Here are his isolated slugging percentages, starting with his rookie year, and not including last year: .125, .113, .136. And his flyball percentages: 22.9%, 24.7%, 30.0%. And his groundball percentages: 56%, 58.2%, 50%. And his HR/FB: 7.9%, 9.1%, 10.1%. If only last year’s .062 ISO, 28.4% flyballs, 53.6% groundballs and 3.3% HR/FB didn’t spoil the fun, you could say that his batted ball profile was trending towards more power.

A decent article written from a fantasy perspective on Esco. Does anyone really care if he hits bombs? Don't get me wrong, it's always nice to have but I would much prefer to see him work the count and get on base for the big boys.

Courtesy of John Lott:

Backup catcher Jose Molina will return to the Toronto Blue Jays next season, providing them with a veteran presence to complement the expected full-season debut of J.P. Arencibia.
The Jays have picked up Molina’s US$1.2-million club option. Molina, 35, batted .246 with 12 RBIs and a career-high six homers. He threw out 40.6% of potential base stealers.
In his 11-year career, Molina has a .236 average while stopping 37.7% of steal attempts against him.

As expected, we exercised the option on Molina. Classic catch and throw guy. Whatever he does with the stick is gravy.

Courtesy of Shi Davidi:

In John Farrell he certainly believes he's found that man, a former big-league pitcher who has worked both as a farm director and pitching coach and whose only real question mark seems to be a lack of previous managerial experience.
The 48-year-old from Monmouth Beach, N.J., named the 12th manager in franchise history Monday afternoon, is an articulate speaker with a commanding presence and a winning background.

His challenge now is to leverage a strong and wide-ranging resume to take charge of an entire team, and match wits with four elite rival managers in the American League East.
"There were a lot of very qualified candidates out there, but what it came down to was who had the chance to be the best manager, long term," said Anthopoulos. "It was very difficult for me to go into this process and hire someone who I felt could be good but not great, it's not the way I operate, I don't think it's what we need in this division and to get where we need to get to.
"I had to hire someone that I felt had a chance to be great."

This was the best write up I could find on our new fearless leader. I must say, seeing him in a Red Sox uni up till the point he was hired made me angry. My hatred for them runs deep.

Game 124 Recap: Live And In Effect

Image courtesy of Zoolander24

What. A. Game.

After watching this type of game I have to wonder out loud why more people don't love this game/team. The Skankees come to town in the middle of a race and we draw 29,198? I guess it was a Monday and you must have had something more important to do.....

As mentioned, I took in this game with The Blue Jay Hunter, who may be the biggest Bautista booster of them all. He also has a promising future career as a psychic. We both live in Wellington County so our 5:45pm departure time left little room for error. What we didn't account for was the 2 parking lots we use being full with cars on a Monday. Fucking Yankees fans ruin everything!  

Major shout out to John Boon for: 

A) living beside the Dome 

B) being home 

C) for having an empty parking spot in his condo

Without it, we were totally screwed. We arrived a half inning late and got to watch the closest thing to playoff baseball I have seen in these parts in a long, long time. Granted the Evil Empire was shorthanded, playing without AROD and their captain. Fuck em.  

The Good:

• Watching Jose Bautista hit his 39th and 40th home run of the season.
• Watching Jose Bautista stare down a rookie bitch one at bat prior to hitting his 40th home run.
• Watching Jose Bautista start a bench clearing (almost) brawl.
• Brandon Morrow dealing again. His line was solid:

6IP 4Hits 2ER 12K 104 Pitches

• The bullpen combining for 3 scoreless innings.
• The Cito sticking up for his players, resulting in a rare ejection.

The Bad:

• Nick Swisher faking a throw to the fans in the outfield in the bottom of the 6th. Dickhead move Swish.
• The Yankees scouting report on Vernon Wells. He has 5 stolen bases this year. Stop trying to pick him off for Christ sakes.
• The 4 Rogers Centre staff that couldn't restrain the guy who jumped on the field.
• Adam Lind absolutely waving at the same pitch, in the same spot 3 times in a row in the bottom of the 6th for the K.

The Ugly:

• Home plate umpire Jerry Meals walking out from behind the plate to bait Esco between the 5th and 6th inning, then tossing him from 30 feet away.
• Home plate umpire Jerry Meals interpretation of the strike zone.

Special Congrats:

 7th Blue Jay in team history to hit 40+ bombs in a season
Photo courtesy of Daylife

Weekly Round Up : July 26 - Aug. 1

Consider this your required reading for the week.  There is a chance we here at 1BlueJaysWay may have some more news on Hechevarria for you real soon.....

Consider this your required viewing for the week.  Fleeced em.  Absolutely fleeced em.

Courtesy of Our Boy Jesse:

Glenn hits for the cycle as Lugnuts beat Kings, 9-5

LANSING, Mich. – Brad Glenn hit for the fifth cycle in team history and the first since 2007, helping the Lansing Lugnuts (17-13; 53-46) chop down the Clinton LumberKings (14-15; 51-47), 9-5, on a Monday Summer Fun Day on Jackson Field.
Glenn singled in the first inning, homered in the third, dropped in a fluke sun-aided double in the fifth, and then broke a 4-4 tie with a two-run triple off of reliever Jose Jimenez (2-4) in the seventh inning to give the Lugnuts the lead for good.
He capped off the game by drawing a walk in the eighth inning, loading the bases ahead of A.J. Jimenez's three-run game-clinching double.
The Lugnuts' previous cycle was accomplished by Travis Snider on July 7, 2007, at Fort Wayne. Corey Patterson (1999), Donnie Hood (2003), and Chip Cannon (2005) were the other Nuts to achieve the cycle in the team's 15-year history.

Gotta love the old sun aided double trick!

Courtesy of MILB:

Sobolewski named FSL Player of the Week

Dunedin Blue Jays third baseman Mark Sobolewski has been named the Florida State League Player of the Week for the time frame of July 19-25. He becomes the fourth Dunedin player to win the honor this season, joining catcher Travis d'Arnaud, outfielder Welinton Ramirez and super utility player John Tolisano.
Sobolewski was fantastic in the weekend series against Bradenton, going 7-for-12 with two home runs and two doubles. On the week, he was 11-for-26 (.423) with three home runs and the two doubles. He also drove in 10 runs and scored eight times himself.
Sobolewski was named a First Half All-Star this season with the Lansing Lugnuts, the Single-A affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays, where he hit .313 with four home runs and 24 RBIs. He also added 15 doubles.
So far with Dunedin this season, the 23-year-old is hitting .274 with four home runs and 22 RBIs, nearly the same numbers he had with Lansing, but in 51 fewer plate.

This guy is slowly moving up the depth chart @ 3B. 

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick:

Consider that among all MLB outfielders, Bautista ranks: first in home runs and outfield assists; second in RBIs, extra-base hits, OPS, slugging and bases-on-balls; and third in runs scored.
“He’s a young guy that can still play third base for you and play the outfield, play first base, so that’s what I would do, but that’s just me,” Gaston added. “I can talk to him about playing a certain position and it’s, ‘Wherever you need me.’ Managers always appreciate guys like that on your ballclub.”
The Jays need his versatility and don’t need to save the money. They have him for one more season. If he goes through the arbitration process the Jays could then either trade him at next year’s deadline or begin negotiations for an extension if he proves in 2011 that 2010 was no fluke.

Dick nailed it.  Doesn't happen often so savor the flavor sir.  

Courtesy of CBC Sports:

The 29-year-old Mike Jacobs is a lifetime .253 hitter with the Mets, Florida Marlins and Kansas City Royals.
The left-handed hitter averaged .208 in 28 at-bats this season with New York, which designated Jacobs for assignment on April 18. He cleared waivers and has spent most of the season at AAA, hitting .260 with 15 home runs and 57 RBIs in 86 games.
Last season, he hit 19 home runs and added 61 runs batted in while making $3.25 million US with the Royals last year.
Jacobs had 32 home runs and 93 RBIs in 2008 with Florida.
He provides some depth for the Blue Jays should they choose to deal free-agent-to-be Lyle Overbay.

Depth move at AAA.  He does have almost 2000 MLB at bats under his belt but he strikes out a fucking tonne and has amassed a lifetime .313 OBP in the big leagues. 

Courtesy of Husker Extra:

In the three weeks since he became an eighth-round draft pick of the Toronto Blue Jays, Nebraska City pitcher Logan Ehlers has turned down two offers to sign.
“We had the (signing-bonus) number set, and everything,” he said, “so right now we’re playing the waiting game.”
That’s usually how it works for anyone who has college aspirations but is in a position where they could command a large enough signing bonus to head straight to professional ball.

Don't know how this one slipped past the goalie but I just had to share it.  We gotta get this kid to sign before he strikes out another 20 batters in a game.  

Courtesy of MLBTR:

Many of the best trade chips in baseball play for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the team held onto all of them when their rivals didn’t meet the club’s asking price. Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg, Jose Bautista and John Buck remain in Toronto for one simple reason: in the end, no team presented GM Alex Anthopoulos with an overwhelming offer.

“I don’t think we were that close today,” Anthopoulos said. “There were things we had on the table that were available to us, but not enough to make us make a trade.”

Translation: Stop trying to fuck with the new guy everyone.

Courtesy of CBS Sports:

Camp to have workload limited: Toronto RP Shawn Camp has been given a heavy workload this season but manager Cito Gaston would like to limit his innings, going forward, reports MLB.com Monday. "I want to do that with him," Gaston said on Monday. "I had a little talk with him about that." Gaston has frequently turned to Camp to clean up messes but will try to limit that going forward. "Of course, he wants to go," Gaston said. "He wants to pitch. Some kind of way, if I can give him off through the next few days, it'd be great -- hopefully. I don't know if it's going to happen. Maybe a couple of days and then if we use him, then we have the off-day."
(Updated 07/26/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Camp entered Monday with a 3-1 record and a 2.92 ERA over 49 1/3 innings. Camp has allowed six runs over nine innings in his last 10 appearances, however, and opponents have been hitting .410 against him over that span. Camp has struggled of late and Gaston believes it has something to do with his workload. "He's only had a couple rough times out there this year," Gaston said. "That's going to happen." Camp is not in line for save chances and remains just a middle-relief option for Fantasy leagues that care about them. (Updated 07/26/2010).

Courtesy of CBS Sports:

Lind a future first baseman?: Toronto DH/OF Adam Lind is going to see playing time at first base down the stretch. MLB.com reports part of the reason why Toronto is going to give Lind a look at first base because the Blue Jays will be looking for a starting first baseman for the 2011 season. "We want to see him play first to see if he can play over there," Blue Jays manager Cito Gaston said. "But, you know, in the offseason there's still some first basemen out there that you can go get."
(Updated 07/30/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Lind has played most of his major-league career in left field or at DH. He played some first base in college and has spelled current 1B Lyle Overbay in a handful of games. Overbay is a free agent after the season and Toronto just traded away prospect Brett Wallace on Thursday, so looking at first-base options now is clearly a priority. The main thing is that Lind is still getting regular at-bats for Toronto. His .225 average and moderate power numbers in 2010 have been disappointing. Lind has been doing well in July, batting .301 with five homers and 11 RBI in 22 games, so there is hope he can still perform like a high-end Fantasy option down the stretch. (Updated 07/30/2010).

Courtesy of Shi Davidi:

Return of Travis Snider forces Cito Gaston to get creative with Blue Jays lineup

Snider, considered one of the team's future cornerstones, will be shuffled around into different spots whenever fellow outfielders Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Adam Lind and Vernon Wells, third baseman Edwin Encarnacion and first baseman Lyle Overbay get a day off.
He'll likely hit in the spot of whoever he's subbing in for, including leadoff hitter Lewis.
"You know, I've thought about that here and there, and if I take Lewis out of the lineup we're not going to put Bautista in the first spot, so it might be Snider up there. He's pretty much my choice if I go that way," said Gaston. "If I have Lewis in the lineup, then Snider will go somewhere else. It's going to be a little mix and match." 

This is the article that set off the shitshow on Twitter that I wrote about earlier.  I figured there may be a chance Snider was being sat down until the deadline because a spot was about to open up.  That didn't materialize, so now we are going to roll with this roving platoon for a couple of weeks and see what happens.  Could end up messy.  Especially with dip shit The Cito "managing" it.

Courtesy of Shi Davidi:

Much has been made of his poor stats — he's been caught stealing 27 times to go with his pedestrian batting average — but Anthony Gose says he's deliberately taken steps backwards in some areas in order to take a few steps forward down the road.
"When you're learning something new the success may not be there right away, results aren't always instant," he said. "I feel I've made tremendous progress from last year to this year.
"Defensively I feel I've gotten better, better routes to the ball, I've worked on making better throws to the bases. Baserunning I feel the adjustments I've made have just made myself better, better reads of the pitcher, getting better jumps. ...
"Offensively I feel that I've progressed also, maybe not in statistical means, but mentally at the plate, and also physically, mechanically, I feel I've progressed to some degree and it will all come together."

I heard that he is the 3rd youngest player in High A or something like that.  Patience is a virtue everyone.....

Courtesy of John Lott @ National Post:

TORONTO - Anthony Gose knows exactly what the critics are saying.
After almost two full pro seasons, he should be a better hitter. He steals a bunch of bases, but gets caught too often. He covers a lot of ground in centre field but makes too many fundamental mistakes on defence.
"Everything has been baby steps. I'm 19, and I have a lot of learning to do," said Gose, one day after his unexpected trade to the Toronto Blue Jays. "I've got a long ways to go before I'm a complete player."

He made his first start last night for Dunedin the high Class-A Florida State League, switching from the Phillies' FSL club a few miles south in Clearwater.
Dunedin coaches promptly began to work on "refining [his] approach at the plate," Gose said in a conference call.
"We started addressing those matters here already on my first day," he said.

Maybe they DID have the "you run like Hayes but you hit like shit" speech already!

Courtesy of Fan Graphs:

Wallace is pretty much just the opposite. His game is so dependent on offense, that even getting to 2-3 WAR consistently will be an issue. After Lance Berkman moves out of Houston, Wallace is the future at first base. He’s not good there, and is surely somewhere worse than 2.5 runs below average. To even reach 3 WAR, he’d have to produce 25 runs with the bat to be worth three wins. And given the fact that he’s never walked 50 times or hit 25 home runs in any season, getting to a .370 wOBA seems impossible.
Houston didn’t do well today. With their best chance to finally acquire a player they could build their future around, they acquired two players with role player ceilings.

Brett made his MLB debut on Saturday with Houston.  He finished up 0 for 4 while playing 1B and hitting 6th in their line up.  Please refrain from crying about this.  Everything is gonna work out later.  Trust me.

Courtesy of Toronto Star Photo Blog:

Weekly Round Up : July 12 - 18

Consider this your required reading for the week. Great story about our other Cuban shortstop. Morgan Campbell absolutely nails it.

Courtesy of Mop-up Duty:

Asher Wojciechowksi – Auburn Doubledays (A)

Like (Noah) Syndergaard, Asher Wojciechowski was drafted this year in the sandwich round and signed quickly. Signed out of the well-respected college baseball program of The Citadel, Wojciechowski is further advanced and was assigned to single-A Auburn. The Blue Jays view him as a “bulldog-like” starting pitcher. Since he was a closer, he is being stretched out by starting games but only going 3-4 innings. Regardless, he has been putting up stellar numbers by relying on his fastball that tops out at 94mph with good downward plane and a slider that projects as above average. He does have a changeup that is not yet playable but he is working on it as a 3rd pitch.


Great work by the guys over at Mop-up Duty. Lots of ink on our new draft picks and higher level prospects.

Courtesy of Klaw @ ESPN:

Jake (Toronto)

J.P. Arencibia will be up with the Jays once John Buck likely gets traded. What should we expect out of him?

Klaw

Low-average guy who makes up for it with power and some patience, although (sorry, broken record here) he is repeating AAA and some of what he's doing there this year is a function of that. As their cheap catcher for three years while they wait on d'Arnaud, though, Arencibia should be a good to great value.

Normally I ignore Klaw because he is a whiny little bitch when it comes to Blue Jays analysis but this seems right to me.

Courtesy of Hardball Talk:

After no doubt watching Major League for the umpteenth time, prospect guru John Sickels decided to take a stab at projecting Rick "Wild Thing" Vaughn's career numbers, including transactions and injuries and all sorts of stats.
Someone really needs to do this for every character in every baseball movie, if only because I always suspected Roger Dorn was underrated and the kid who broke his arm in Rookie of the Year probably had a worse WHIP than you'd think.

Any reference to the best baseball movie ever will always be welcome at 1bluejaysway.

Courtesy of King Jordan:

After tonight's 3-2 win for the Blue Jays, the team announced that it had designated infielder Nick Green for assignment to clear a spot for pitcher Shaun Marcum (due to be activated from the disabled list). What does this have to do with Snider? Let me explain.
Removing Green from the roster leaves the Jays with 12 position players and 13 pitchers (six starters and seven relievers). For the next 10 days or so -- or the minimum amount of time Snider must remain in the Minors -- Toronto will play short-handed on the bench. Why, you ask? To ease the workload for the starting pitchers.

6 man rotation in the house! Well sorta. This is only possible because The Cito continues to refuse to make any in game moves. For the next little while we will have only Johnny Mac, Wise and the back up catcher on the bench.

Courtesy of You Don't Know Dick @ The Star:

Where are the Jays headed as the trade deadline approaches? The Gonzalez deal offers clues as to what Anthopoulos may be thinking about revamping his roster to young and controllable:

Lyle Overbay: The 33-year-old first baseman, earning $7 million (all figures U.S.), is a free agent at the end of the year. Unlike shortstop-for-shortstop, the Jays don’t need to receive a young first baseman in return. If Overbay goes, they will either call up Brett Wallace or fill in with Adam Lind who has been working more intensely with a trapper and Brian Butterfield over the past month.
John Buck: The 33-year-old catcher, earning $2 million, is a free agent at the end of the year. As an all-star, his value has increased and the Jays would rather keep Molina because if they bring up J.P. Arencibia, having a breakout season at Triple-A, the veteran backup is a better mentor.
Edwin Encarnacion: The 27-year-old third baseman, earning $4.75 million, is arbitration-eligible and a free agent following 2011. They already placed him on waivers and nobody took him so the only way they could move him is if they offered to pay the remainder of his salary this year — which they would surely be willing to do.
Jose Bautista: The 29-year-old right fielder/third baseman, earning $2.4 million, is arbitration- eligible and a free agent following 2011. Bautista is one of Gaston’s favourites and his versatility and intensity make it difficult to understand why they would deal. They should hang on to the major-league’s home run leader, giving them off-season flexibility in adding either an outfielder or a third baseman. Then they could sign Bautista to a well-deserved three-year deal.

Ah Dick. You try so hard to be insightful. 

Here's what I'm thinking: If the plan is to keep J-Bau around then we will be either signing him to a one year deal again or taking him to arbitration. Due to his excellent production this season, he will likely project as a Type A free agent after a good 2011. Then we could shop him around at the deadline next year (think Scott Downs) and demand a great prospect. Or we could hang onto him and offer him arbitration again. If he declines and signs with a different team (think Marco Scutaro) then we get a couple of picks in the 2012 Amateur Draft.  I guess what I am trying to say is his value will be higher in the future.  It makes no sense to sign him long term right now.

Courtesy of Shi Dividi @ The Canadian Press

More parts may arrive before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, as Anthopoulos has several strong chips to play with in relievers Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg (who has club options for next year or the next two seasons) and Jason Frasor, plus catcher Buck and first baseman Lyle Overbay, all potential free agents.
But anyone who thinks Anthopoulos will scorch the ground just to get rid of them hasn't been paying attention. It looks like all four players will qualify for draft pick compensation should they sign elsewhere, so only an asset of significance will pry them away since the Blue Jays are under no financial pressure to deal them.
Additionally, Anthopoulos doesn't want his young players to develop in a negative, losing culture, so he won't pick the team apart unless it's really worth it.
“Naturally the assumption is (the Gonzalez trade) is a precursor to a flurry of other moves and a look to move veteran players,” said Anthopoulos. “We're not looking to shop any of our players, or move any of our players specifically.
“I try to keep in touch with teams and continue to have dialogue and it's more a process where we target players, we call teams about specific players.”

In Boy Wonder we trust. Amen.

Courtesy of Fan Graphs:

Alex Gonzalez is currently the NL Leader in Just Enoughs with ten. Jose Bautista is second with eight. Both have HR/FB rates that eclipse their career averages. Even though the park factor for overall runs in Toronto favors the pitcher, the factor for home runs largely favors hitters. According to StatCorner, the RHB HR park factor in Toronto is 110, heavily favoring the hitters. This is balanced out by a 92 park factor for singles for both hands, which is why we see pitchers seemingly favored at the Rogers Centre.
All of the factors for a heavy decline in the second half are there, particularly for Alex Gonzalez, who moves to Turner Field and its 90 park factor for RHB HRs. These players are getting lucky in almost every possible sense with home runs. The Braves are likely to fall victim to a drop in power from Alex Gonzalez, and any team, particularly without a RH-friendly ball park, would likely see the same out of Jose Bautista.

I have linked to this post numerous times over the week when challenged about the Escobar / Gonzo deal by smug Braves fans. The comments section was quick to point out that the author didn't mention one important detail.....

George says:

Bautista has 8 no-doubters (2nd only to Vernon Wells in the majors), 8 just enoughs, and no lucky home runs according to HitTracker.
He’s hitting for major power and has been since September of last season. That’s not a matter of luck

Saturday Pick Me Up

Easy reading post for y'all.  Straight rip from my CBS Sports fantasy news wire.


Lind could turn it on in 2nd half: Toronto OF Adam Lind still showcased the power with 12 homers and 40 RBI but his .214 first-half batting average was the lowest of his career. Luckily for Lind, he's historically been a far superior hitter after the All-Star break with a career batting average of .300. Lind hit .303 after the break last year with 16 homers and 55 RBI and has never hit worse than .273 in the second half.
(Updated 07/14/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Lind might already be getting hot as he entered the break 10 for 32 (.313) in July thus far with three homers. Lind finished 2009 with 35 homers and 114 RBI and we lauded him as a top 10 Fantasy outfielder to begin the season. He's been anything but a top 10 outfielder this season but certainly has the ability to find his stroke entering the second half. Fantasy owners have started him in mixed Fantasy leagues pretty much all year so there is no reason to stop now when the splits say he's in for a solid second half. (Updated 07/14/2010).

Encarnacion a second-half guy: Toronto 3B Edwin Encarnacion finished the first half of the season with hits in six of his final seven games. He batted .346 over that span with a homer and has gained back his starting job at third. Encarnacion hit .221 overall in the first half, which is actually over 50 percentage points higher than his average heading into the break last year. He came back to hit .251 with 11 homers and 30 RBI in the second half last season.
(Updated 07/14/2010).

Fantasy Analysis

Encarnacion is a better hitter in the second half for his career and that was supremely evidenced last season. He hasn't had fewer than 10 second-half homers in each of his last three seasons and is averaging 10 second-half homers per year over his last five years. Encarnacion should keep the power coming with regular at-bats in the second half and can see Fantasy use in some deeper mixed leagues. (Updated 07/14/2010).

Quickly:
 
Speaking of fantasy baseball, I should mention I literally put my money where my mouth is and picked up Yunel Escobar in my AL only, big money keeper league.  I know I overpaid for him at 21 bucks, that's 21 REAL dollars, and don't know if I will or will not keep him at that price but it simply boils down to this for me:  

I believe in Esco

And Team Balco is in 3rd place and needs the OBP desperately.....

Blockbuster

Boy Wonder does it again!

The Trade:

Your Toronto Blue Jays received SS Yunel Escobar and LHP JoJo Reyes in exchange for SS Alex Gonzalez, SS Tyler Pastornicky and LHP Tim Collins.

Analysis:

For starters, I will send it over to our boy Jesse for his take on the deal: 

This is a challenge deal.  A challenge deal (a term created I believe by Bill James) is where teams trade players of exact same positions, pitting those players against one another.  A challenge deal is much easier to evaluate in the long run because players at the same position are directly comparable.

Some examples of other challenge deals are:

• Scott Rolen for Troy Glaus  
• Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur
• Sean Burnett and Nyjer Morgan for Joel Hanrahan and Lastings Milledge
• Wil Ledezma for Macay McBride

Toronto perspective:  shortstop Yunel Escobar is better than shortstop Alex Gonzalez (regardless of their stats this year) and minor league shortstop Tyler Pastornicky (playing “eh” in A-Advanced, though he’s still young); and left-hander JoJo Reyes is better than left-hander Tim Collins.

The Atlanta perspective is the exact opposite:  Gonzalez and/or Pastornicky is/are better than Escobar.  Collins is better than Reyes.  Anyway, three players are better than two.

By the way, Sal Fasano is a fan of Reyes.  Likes the way he pitches.

I neither defend nor disparage the deal right now:  Time will settle the winner and loser of this one, and probably pretty clearly, too.

I will add that Toronto’s system has a plentitude of middle infield prospects, causing Pastornicky to become expendable.  It is very likely that Lansing shortstop Ryan Goins now gets promoted to Dunedin, where I believe he will outperform Pastornicky’s production.  This moves Justin Jackson back to a full-time role at shortstop with the Lugnuts.

To hear what Jesse has to say about Tiny Tim Collins click ahead to 5:47.  I must warn you, it may pain you to do so.

    

More Analysis:

I, unlike Jesse, am ready to call this one right now: AA fleeced em.  I mean he should be wearing a ski mask into the office tomorrow.

First off, we got the best player in the deal.  Hands down.  No disrespect to Gonzo and the career year he is having but..... 

At this time last year Joe Polanski had Yunel Escobar rated in his top 100 baseball players, of any position in both leagues, including pitchers.  No way does a guy lose that type of ability in half a season.  It's just not possible.  Christ, he managed to get an MVP vote in 2009.

For argument sake, let's examine the offensive data.  Keep in mind his 2009 totals for AVG, OBP and Runs were good enough for top 25 in the NL.  More importantly his .373 batting average with runners in scoring position ranked third in the entire Major Leagues.  Also worth noting, he has hit .312 in the second half of the season for his career.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB
2007	24	ATL	NL	94	355	319	54	104	25	0	5	28	5	3	27	44	.326	.385	.451	.837	118	144
2008	25	ATL	NL	136	587	514	71	148	24	2	10	60	2	5	59	62	.288	.366	.401	.766	103	206
2009	26	ATL	NL	141	604	528	89	158	26	2	14	76	5	4	57	62	.299	.377	.436	.812	116	230
2010	27	ATL	NL	75	301	261	28	62	12	0	0	19	5	1	37	31	.238	.334	.284	.618	70	74
4 Seasons				446	1847	1622	242	472	87	4	29	183	17	13	180	199	.291	.368	.403	.771	105	654
162 Game Avg.				162	671	589	88	171	32	1	11	66	6	5	65	72	.291	.368	.403	.771	105	238

If those aren't nerdy enough for you.  I suggest you take a look at Fan Graphs.

Here are all his 14 home runs from the 2009 season courtesy of Hit Tracker.  Click the link for some videos of his bombs.  Start by watching the 459 footer he hit in Arizona off John Garland.  Love the trot.

What about his defense at shortstop?

Well let's shoot it over to the guy that has been watching him since he got to the big leagues former Blue Jay manager Bobby Cox.  Here is what he had to say in February of this year before he put him in the dog house:

"Escobar, to me, is a Gold Glove winner at short," Cox added. "He's as good as it gets."

For the 2010 season he has the most assists as a shortstop in the NL to go along with a top three range factor.  

How about his contract info?

According to Cot's Baseball Contracts he has 2.121 years of Major League Service time and is arbitration eligible for 2011-2013.  At that point, he can become a free agent.  He is currently being paid $435,000, which is just above the league minimum.  He is represented by the Wasserman Media Group which is only worth noting because they are not Scott Boras.

In the interests of being thorough I must mention a few things.  He has been labeled as having an attitude.  Now I'm not going to sit here and pretend to know what that means.  I can guess he plays the game with the same fire and passion that every other Cuban I have ever seen in the big leagues but here are the facts courtesy of Alden Gonzalez / MLB.com:

• In 2009 he was removed from a game on June 14 because of a lack of focus. 
• On June 25, he took exception to a charged error by gesturing toward the press box and pouting in his next at-bat.
• He was benched by his manager for disciplinary reasons.
• He was deemed abrasively brash by opponents.
• all while continuing a tense relationship with the Atlanta media.

"People would perceive it as being flashy, but he's always said, 'That's just me," said Braves bench coach Chino Cadahia, who's been Escobar's interpreter since he made it to the big leagues.

"It's just a lot of people don't understand his whole story. But I'm not defending him to some of the things he's done, because they've been wrong, and I've told him they've been wrong. But at the same time, if they understood where he came from, how he was able to get out [of Cuba] and the stuff he had to do to do this, sometimes you understand a little better some of his actions."

"He has to be himself most of the time," Cadahia said. "But being himself, he has to be able to control being himself, also. We definitely want him to be Yunel Escobar. But he can be Yunel Escobar and not show anybody up."

Yunel had this to say about it:

"Us Latin players are a bit aggressive, and sometimes that gives off a bad impression," Escobar said in Spanish "We play a brash game, an aggressive game, and that's what I've been demonstrating here.

"People have misinterpreted those mannerisms. But honestly, I'm not a bad kid, and I don't disrespect anybody. I respect the game."

"This is the year I'm trying to focus on [learning English], because I've already been here three years since 2007, and a lot of people have wanted to talk to me, but I couldn't talk," Escobar said. "I'm getting tired of that. I have to express myself to people because a lot of people want to get to know me, but they can't because of the language.

"Things happened last year where there were just misinterpretations that brought me problems I've never really had before."

"Every year that passes, I feel more like this is my home, and I gain a little bit more confidence," Escobar said. "Since I got here in 2007, I've felt a bit out of place. I didn't know how they were going to treat me, because it was the first time I was in a big league clubhouse."

I think now is the time I drop this on you.  Must read.

All that and he hits into a lot of double plays.  Like over 20 a year.  And you could call him a little soft.  But that is it.  Promise. 

Some More Analysis:

On centerpiece Yunel Escobar:

"It's fair to say that if Yunel Escobar was performing like he did last year, it would have been a much more difficult deal to make," GM Alex Anthopoulos said.

“If Yunel was doing what he did in the past, he’s not available to us and this trade does not present itself. This was an opportunity for us to take a chance on a very talented player."

“We control the player for three years after this,”

“We feel as though he has a chance to be a core player. Certainly he’s having a down year but, again, when you look at what he did the years prior to that, (we are) getting a very high-ceiling, talented shortstop that was arguably coming into this year as one of the better young shortstops in the game.”

"It's never a bad thing to have two great players,"

"We're just as high on Adeiny Hechavarria. We absolutely believe he's going to be an All-Star caliber shortstop. When we get a chance to add another guy like that in Yunel Escobar, we're never going to shy away from the talent."

“When you have depth at premium positions … It’s an absolutely outstanding problem to have,”

"I certainly believe Alex Gonzalez is going to continue to have a great year and help the Braves get to the playoffs, their aspirations are to win the World Series, but Yunel Escobar, long-term, is a guy we think is equally as talented ... and he certainly has greater upside."

"Where there's smoke there's fire and we weren't going to roll our eyes at that,"

"Everyone we've spoken to has said, first and foremost, this is a good kid and that was the number one factor for us. There have been run-ins, other issues, and I think it's a product maybe of the style of game he plays, maybe it didn't mesh well with the Atlanta Braves."

“Everybody that we spoke to — former teammates, coaches, minor-league staff, everybody — the response was the that this was a good kid,”

"Jose (Bautista) said he was a good kid, quiet, not a problem in the clubhouse at all. But he does play a flashy kind of game and I think being in the environment we have here for him, I think this is an opportunity for him to thrive."

"When we looked at it, we said, 'Well, we're either going to go off of three years of track record that Yunel Escobar has showed as a young man, or the three months that he's performed so far.'"

"We think there could be some mechanical things that can be addressed in his swing, and I think he may need a fresh start and a new organization and a city like Toronto that embraces Latin players,"

"There's no question his power has been lacking from what it has been in previous years,"

"The biggest concern for us was the lack of power and we really had our scouts focus on batting practice and make sure the raw power was there and we were pretty diligent about examining his health. The raw power is still there, and we think it's just a matter of making some tweaks."

"He can still drive the ball in batting practice. I think it's just a matter of making some tweaks."

"If you look at the Cuban player, they play with a lot of flare, a lot of emotion, a lot of flash,"

"But I think it can be exciting for fans. Toronto fans love watching a high energy player who brings a lot of passion and desire to the shortstop position and I think he's going to be able to thrive in this environment."

"Just talking to Cito Gaston, he said Tony Fernandez was very flashy as well and he thrived here, he was a fan favourite."

"I think Yunel coming to a city like Toronto — that a lot of Latin players seem to love and enjoy for obvious reasons — it’s a fresh start for him. It’s a new organization. Getting with people like (manager) Cito (Gaston) and (hitting coach) Dwayne Murphy, that will unlock some things.”

"We did a lot of homework and we feel like this is going to be an environment for him to really thrive."

"At the same time acquiring someone like Yunel Escobar along with Jo-Jo Reyes -- two young, talented players (was key). Going into the season, Escobar was widely regarded as one of the best young shortstops in the game. He's 27 and he's controlled (rights-wise) for three years beyond 2010 and he also has a chance to be a core player."

On JoJo Reyes:

"(The Pacific Coast League) is a tough league to pitch in and we want to try to get the best out of Jo-Jo," Anthopoulos said "He's had time in the big leagues before. He was a highly touted prospect. It's just a matter of getting him into the right environment to get some success, to get some confidence going. His stuff is certainly there."

"He hasn't had a great performance this year,"

"We have some scouts that feel pretty strongly about him and think he has a chance to bounce back and be the player he was in the past."

On Alex Gonzalez:

"The production and the results speak for themselves," Anthopoulos said. "As I told Alex, the two most professional position players that I've probably been around in my time in the game have been Scott Rolen and Alex Gonzalez.

"Just the way he carries himself and the way he conducts himself, he's a tremendous teammate and a quiet leader -- not an easy guy to part with."

"It wasn't a reflection on Alex at all. He's absolutely exceeded any expectations we had for him. He's a plus player, a plus defender. What a tremendous competitor, tremendous person and good role model for the younger players. That's what made this so complicated."

On prospects Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky

"Both guys are very talented," Anthopoulos said. "I give the Braves a lot of credit. I think they did a great job from a scouting standpoint. The makeup of both players is outstanding. I spoke to both of them today. They're both tremendous kids, very hard workers, outstanding baseball players and very tough, intense competitors."

"We were reluctantly willing to give up both players,"

"But it was not an easy decision to make."

“We think Tim Collins can pitch in the big leagues right now as a 20-year-old with a great arm,”

“That was the cost to doing it.”

Boy Wonder has spoken.  It should be noted he sees Escobar as a top of the order hitter.

Conclusion:

I didn't even bother to mention the other players in the deal.  It's not because I forgot but more because this trade, to me, boils down to this:

We just traded a potential lefty bullpen stud, a potential back up infielder and a season and a half of a 33 year old Major League shortstop we got for nothing.

FOR

A potential All Star and a lefty with big league starting experience.