Our boy Jesse caught up with the all world catching prospect Carlos Perez this weekend and was kind enough to let us drop it here first, for you all to enjoy.
But before you do, check out his stats courtesy of First Inning. Feel free to get excited. I did.
Basic Statistics
Year
Age
Team
PA
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
HBP
BB
SO
SB
AVG
OBP
SLG
OPS
2008
Rookie
DSL Blue Jays1
239
180
25
56
10
2
0
29
6
50
27
5
.311
.469
.389
858
2009
18
Rookie
GCL Blue Jays
161
140
17
40
11
3
1
20
2
15
24
2
.286
.354
.429
783
2010
19
A-
Auburn
278
235
44
70
11
8
2
41
6
34
41
7
.298
.396
.438
834
2011
20
A
Lansing
25
22
4
9
1
1
0
4
0
3
3
0
.409
.480
.545
1025
Extended Statistics
Year
Age
Team
PA
AB
ISOP
BB%
K%
BABIP
GB%
LD%
RC
RC/27
wOBA
wOBA+
OPS+
2008
Rookie
DSL Blue Jays1
239
180
.078
20.9%
11.3%
.366
47%
8%
32
6.55
.400
132
160
2009
18
Rookie
GCL Blue Jays
161
140
.143
9.3%
14.9%
.339
48%
11%
19
4.62
.342
117
140
2010
19
A-
Auburn
278
235
.140
12.2%
14.7%
.354
52%
15%
40
6.28
.371
121
140
2011
20
A
Lansing
25
22
.136
12.0%
12.0%
.474
42%
37%
5
9.00
.450
Here's what Jesse had to say about Carlos after watching him for just 25 at bats:
Excellent line
drive stroke, solid plate discipline, and a quick release to second
base. Easily recognizable as a terrific prospect.
In the interview itself you will gain some valuable insight on how people born in the Caribbean deal with "spring" in the Northern USA. Also, the MVP for his team the last three years reveals he grew up playing as an outfielder. He talks a little bit about being signed by the Blue Jays and how no other team was in on him as an 18 year old.
Now
my math skills are not what I would consider strong but if he was
drafted as an 18 year old and has managed to play full seasons in 2008,
2009 and 2010 then he can not be 20 years old right now. It`s just not
possible, is it? His age is conveniently left blank in the stat table
above and the always trustworthy Baseball Reference has him playing 2008 as a 17 year old. Which makes sense to me. But I'll admit I`m probably looking way a little too much into it.
If you are not following Jesse on Twitter for whatever reason, well, you should be. And while you're at it give Paul a follow.
Two rock solid guys traveling around with the Lugnuts all season.
Alright. This may be a blanket statement but I'm just gonna go ahead and say that if you are a fan of any particular MLB organization, then you overvalue their prospects. It's just what we do.
Let's take a look at a Blue Jay specific example: J.P. Arencibia
He was selected in the 1st round, 21st overall, in the 2007 Amateur Draft. Entering the 2010 season, really smart people were writing shit like this about Arencibia. His supporters will quickly point out that he had 2 surgeries - one on his eyes and another on his kidney - which were clearly necessary and allowed him to regain his form.
He will be 25 years old when the 2011 season begins and it now appears like he will get a legit shot at cracking the active roster.
Here are his stats as a pro courtesy of Baseball Reference (notice the dip in 2009, then the resurgence in 2010)
422 AB 53 R 101 H 29 2B 1 3B 23 HR 59 RBI 28 BB 92 SO .240 BA .291 OBP .474 SLG .765 OPS
This tool takes a body of work from a specific level in the Minors and converts it as though that body of work happened in the Majors. How accurate is it? Who knows.
Now, I'm not going to base an entire argument on this conversion but I think it helps to put things into perspective. A monster MVP type year in Las Vegas is not really worth getting all that worked up about.
Don't get me wrong, Arencibia clearly has power. And it looks like his power will play in the big leagues. Anyone who was lucky enough to watch his totally unreal MLB debut will tell you, he is ready.
What those same people won't tell you is he had just 1 hit for the rest of the year. Obviously he wasn't playing regularly and if I remember correctly when he did start, it always seemed to be against pretty good pitchers.
Matsuzaka
Buchholtz
Haren
Gonzalez
Price
Lester
King Felix
CC
Blackburn
So what is it that I'm trying to say? Here goes:
J.P. Arencibia may end up being a serviceable Major League catcher someday. But it will be how he plays behind the dish that will ultimately determine that. And it's probably gonna take a while till we figure that out.
By the time we do a couple of our other prospects, most notably Travis d'Arnaud and Carlos Perez, will likely be ready to take their respective shots. I would put A.J. Jimenez in that conversation as well.
Let's throw those 3 players numbers at their respective levels into the mighty Minor League Equivalency Calculator and see what comes out.
His injury shortened / 2 time All Star 2010 season in the pitcher friendly Florida State League had it happened in the big leagues, would have looked like this:
271 AB 23 R 52 H 15 2B 1 3B 4 HR 24 RBI 2 SB 1 CS 13 BB 70 SO .194 BA .239 OBP .296 SLG .535 OPS
Midwest League to MLB conversation, which ends up being remarkably similar to d'Arnaud:
272 AB 19 R 58 H 14 2B 0 3B 2 HR 29 RBI 11 SB 5 CS 10 BB 66 SO .214 BA .246 OBP .290 SLG .536 OPS.
Unfortunately Carlos Perez only made it as far as the New York Penn League and the Minor League Equivalency calculator doesn't do short seasons.
These 3 young guys are all known as solid defensive catchers. But they all are at least 2 or 3 full seasons away from being seriously considered for the big leagues. Look for d'Arnaud to start in New Hampshire, Jimenez to stay in Dunedin and Perez to get the bulk of the reps in Lansing.
Point being catcher is clearly a position of strength for the organization.
Is J.P. Arencibia the most ready? For sure.
Is he the best we have? Maybe.
Will he bring back the greatest return in a trade? Most likely.
Will his value ever be higher? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm
That's the real question I want to address. Let's just say that J.P. gets his well deserved shot in the big leagues and he puts up numbers that are similar to what he is projected to do.
A .250 batting average with a .300 OBP and 20 homers with about 60 RBI. That would be if he got the lion's share of work behind the plate.
My question to you is this: Would his trade value increase or decrease after a season like that?
It doesn't help our favorite Cuban shortstop to have Jose Iglesias - the guy who everyone compares Adeiny to - in the same league but Adeiny has the talent and ability to hold his own. I was able to learn a little spanish from Adeiny, had some fun moments with him, watched him make some dazzling defensive plays and got to see him swing the bat a ton.
Obviously this was his first season in pro ball in America. Which is why in my opinion I don't think a .273 AVG and a .305 OBP in AA (considering the adjustment to the speed of the game and life in general here) is all that bad at all. I do believe he's going to continue to improve next season. My guess is he starts the year in New Hampshire but all he has to do to get to Vegas is hit because the glove is as good or better than any shortstop in professional baseball. The arm is still getting there, but he has the defensive instincts to succeed a great deal at any level of pro ball, including the Majors.
I dug up some video of Adeiny at the plate this season. Pretty much every different type of at-bat that I saw from him. The ones where he is wearing the blue uniform was the same game that Kyle Drabek pitched his no-hitter, which I have video of as well. To me Adeiny is the perfect 2 hole hitter. He knows how to play a little small ball, hit the ball the opposite way, and go gap-to-gap. Hopefully the power will come.
Enjoy!
Here's something else that I wanted to show. I am a big fan of Carlos Perez who spent some of this past season with Auburn in the New York Penn League. I was actually lucky enough to see Carlos hit one of his few home runs. The Doubledays came to Burlington to play the Vermont Lake Monsters which is how I saw them.
Well in my opinion, Adeiny's potential is somewhat similar to Carlos'. Both of whom have very similiar swings and are pretty much the same type of hitter. Although I would give the edge to Carlos Perez in the long run.
