Final Thought On Yu Darvish

 
















Every year I play in a uber competitive big money AL only fantasy baseball league. I consider two or three of my rivals friends and the rest are merely acquaintances. Just before the season is about to start all 12 managers get together and have an auction style draft. It's good fun and the beers flow. A salary cap of $260 is in place which must cover 14 hitters and 9 pitchers. As you would imagine this auction plays out like a episode of Storage Wars. The premium players will not be had for less than 40 bucks. If a manager thinks he's about to get a smoking deal - say Konerko for $29 - someone jumps in and jacks the bid to a more acceptable price even if they ultimately have no interest in the player. Where it gets truly interesting is when it's time to bid on a hot shot rookie. All of your trusted methods of evaluating talent - and your sanity - go straight out the window at times.

Example 1: Evan Longoria circa 2008 draft

I remember it well because it was my first year of playing in the league. I was the new guy and I had no idea what I was doing. All these players were going for prices that I thought were completely outrageous and then somebody nominated Longoria. Obviously he had some talent with the stick and his face was on the cover of every fantasy baseball publication known to man. As the bidding started I figured a double digit bid is where I would back off. To my and the chiseled league vet's I was sitting beside surprise he went all the way up to 26 bucks. I remember him turning to me and saying: "that's a lot of money to spend on a guy that's never faced a major league pitcher before."

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2008	22	TBR	AL	122	508	448	67	122	31	2	27	85	7	0	46	122	.272	.343	.531	.874	127	238	8	6	0	8	4	*5/D6	AS,MVP-11,RoY-1

Example 2: Austin Jackson circa 2010 draft

Coming to the Tigers in what can only be described as a blockbuster deal in the winter of 2009 Jackson was the centerpiece and a much hyped Yankees prospect, like every other damn Yankees prospect. He was going to play CF everyday and there were rumors that Leyland was going to try him out at leadoff in a pretty dangerous lineup on paper. I figured his glove was going to keep him in CF and therefore keep him in the lineup. Again, I set my limit at double digits and again he climbed out of my price range to 12 bucks. In retrospect that's a pretty fair price to pay for an everyday player in this league.

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2010	23	DET	AL	151	675	618	103	181	34	10	4	41	27	6	47	170	.293	.345	.400	.745	102	247	5	4	3	3	4	*8	RoY-2

 
Example 3: Lorenzo Cain circa 2011 draft

Involved in the Zack Greinke trade over the winter, Cain wasn't guaranteed a job on the big league roster but had had some success in the Majors the previous year. He was blocked in CF by the Melkman who had signed a one year deal with an option with KC. In a somewhat brazen alcohol induced move, yours truly made a play at Cain figuring he would be up a day or two after the Super 2 date had passed in early June. I had some extra funds to burn and it was late in the draft so I bid him up to 7 bucks and won. In doing so, I missed out on free agent to be and seven year veteran Josh Willingham who ended up being had for 6 bucks.

Cain:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2010	24	MIL	NL	43	158	147	17	45	11	1	1	13	7	1	9	28	.306	.348	.415	.763	105	61	1	1	0	1	0	8/79
2011	25	KCR	AL	6	23	22	4	6	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	.273	.304	.318	.623	73	7	0	0	0	0	0	/98

Willingham:

Year	Age	Tm	Lg	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Pos	Awards
2004	25	FLA	NL	12	29	25	2	5	0	0	1	1	0	0	4	8	.200	.310	.320	.630	68	8	1	0	0	0	0	/27
2005	26	FLA	NL	16	28	23	3	7	1	0	0	4	0	0	2	5	.304	.407	.348	.755	107	8	1	2	1	0	0	/2D7
2006	27	FLA	NL	142	573	502	62	139	28	2	26	74	2	0	54	109	.277	.356	.496	.852	121	249	13	11	0	6	2	*7/D32	RoY-9
2007	28	FLA	NL	144	604	521	75	138	32	4	21	89	8	1	66	122	.265	.364	.463	.827	115	241	11	16	0	1	1	*7/D
2008	29	FLA	NL	102	416	351	54	89	21	5	15	51	3	2	48	82	.254	.364	.470	.834	117	165	7	14	1	2	2	7
2009	30	WSN	NL	133	502	427	70	111	29	0	24	61	4	3	61	104	.260	.367	.496	.863	127	212	11	12	0	2	2	*79/3
2010	31	WSN	NL	114	450	370	54	99	19	2	16	56	8	0	67	85	.268	.389	.459	.848	129	170	8	9	0	4	3	7/D
2011	32	OAK	AL	136	563	488	69	120	26	0	29	98	4	1	56	150	.246	.332	.477	.810	121	233	6	11	0	8	3	7D

Conclusion:

Bidding and subsequently winning these types of players is a clear lose lose situation. In order to win them you have to overpay for them relative to their real value. The only way it works out for you is when they preform above or well above their projected level, which in turn is based on nothing in the way of real experience.

For a quick reality check to all you stupid, ignorant, the sky is falling, hockey crazed, Rogers hating, moron, upset at your life, looking for the simple answer, management hating, stathead, dickholes that just can't seem to let this God damn topic go please click here