2011-08-05

Where would YOU hit Brett Lawrie in the lineup?

Was just pondering that question myself. Unfortunately due to the fact that I can't come up with an original thought all by myself, I decided to rely purely on statistical data.

I get started by going straight over to the appropriately titled Lineup Analysis. It requires merely a player name, OBA (which I'm rather confident is in fact On Base Percentage) & slugging. Right away we got problems. Brett doesn't have any of that in the Majors and I'm looking for some accuracy here. So over to the Minor League Equivalency calculator I go. It requires a whole bunch of stats, which the always rock solid Baseball Reference easily takes care of. Only problem is that they need to be manually inputted. After a couple I`m pretty thankful that I only need to do this for one player. That and you can't actually link back to the results. I guess that is really two problems. Whatever.

Here are all of Brett Lawrie's 2011 Minor League stats (AAA and High A) converted as if he had of played all year in the Big Leagues.

 AB    R    H    2B   3B   HR   RBI   BB   K    BA     OBP   SLG    SB   CS   HBP
309  44  85  19    4     13     43    19   58  .275  . 332  .491   11    2     7

Nice. No idea how accurate it is and I don't even care. It's what I'm going with. 

Right back to the Lineup Analysis I go and plug these totally fictitious numbers as well as all the other Blue Jays into this tool. Please note: I'm assuming that Thames is in LF, Bautista is back in RF and J.P. is behind the plate as we are facing righty starter Tom(my) Hunter. I get the rest of the team stats from The Official Site of The Toronto Blue Jays. Only minor wrinkle was I had to click on the new guy's page individually for his stats from the NL. Again I'm looking for accuracy here.

Here's what shakes out. Buckle up!

If we are looking to score a whopping 10700.285 runs per game then we just have to try this lineup.....

Esco
Bautista
E5
Lawrie
Lind
J.P.
Thames
Hill
Rasmus

That's only if we go with the somewhat suspect 1989-2002 Model. However, if we decide to go with the larger and clearly more accurate 1959-2004 Model we get this:

Esco
Bautista
Thames
Lawrie
Lind
E5
Rasmus
J.P.
Hill

That right there is good for 10411.223 runs per game. PER GAME people. Prove me wrong. You can't do it can you? 

Conclusion: 

I removed the link on this site to the Baseball Musings Lineup Analysis for obvious reasons.

2 comments:

  1. Even Brett Lawrie doesn't get on base 3,320% of the time you dickhole!

    Forgot the decimals

    ReplyDelete
  2. You get the stat manipulator of the day award!

    In fact that same ridiculous lineup mentioned above is only good for 5.429 runs per game.

    ReplyDelete

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