tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post8351775905911054682..comments2024-01-01T10:14:51.252-05:00Comments on 1 Blue Jays Way: 2010.....Destined To FAIL?The Man With The Golden Armhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11193601268748890956noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-80128141471850795782010-02-03T23:35:02.437-05:002010-02-03T23:35:02.437-05:00Hunter said:
"but I honestly think his defen...Hunter said: <br />"but I honestly think his defense might actually get worse"<br /><br />Is that even possible? Jesus what is that going to look like?The Man With The Golden Armhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11193601268748890956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-69667844489279547692010-02-03T21:39:40.687-05:002010-02-03T21:39:40.687-05:00The thing about Wells is I think he can bounce bac...The thing about Wells is I think he can bounce back offensively in 2010, but I honestly think his defense might actually get worse. At times, he looks lost in CF and either doesn't read the ball properly or can't get a good jump on the ball.Ian Hunterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01074587524873409802noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-23871277113690454882010-02-03T15:28:08.224-05:002010-02-03T15:28:08.224-05:00Furthermore,
As an infielder you know that a ball ...Furthermore,<br />As an infielder you know that a ball that gets past you will likely be picked by the outfield most of the time for a base hit.<br />As an outfielder you know that a ball that gets by you will be stopped only by the wall and ALL the time be good for extra bases. The opportunity to commit errors will always be greater on ground balls due to the fact that you have to pick up the ball AND throw it.<br />Errors are bad. Errors prolong innings. They make the pitcher throw more pitches and keep the defense on the field longer increasing the opportunity to commit more errors. But I respectfully submit that errors in the outfield lead to more big innings, which has a greater impact on the outcome of the game.The Man With The Golden Armhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11193601268748890956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-48988282976104798282010-02-03T15:07:18.853-05:002010-02-03T15:07:18.853-05:00Yeah, the only thing that makes the thought of Wel...Yeah, the only thing that makes the thought of Wells playing CF bareable is that it can't stay that way forever. Unless he can bounce back into shape (he's 32 now, so he better do it soon!), he'll more than likely be moved to one of the corners in a year or two. I'm actually alright with Snider playing either of the corners, as he should some competence there, despite being somewhat overwhelmed by the level of play (and underwhelmed with Cito's coaching). Snider in left, Wells in right, and some toolsy stud making up for both of them with his range in CF... sounds a little better than what we're faced with in 2010. <br />BUILDING!!?!11Hillerajnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-69179473737089935052010-02-03T14:50:57.133-05:002010-02-03T14:50:57.133-05:00I think I'm just pissed that Vernon is still i...I think I'm just pissed that Vernon is still in CF. If we had even an average defensive player there then I think we could get away with it for this season. <br />I'm not shitting on the fact we got a wizard at SS. It is one of the if not the most important defensive positions on the field. But I have to disagree with you statement: <br /><br />I don't really think there should be any question that improving infield defense should be a priority over the outfield.<br /> <br />We have guys that can hit .230 and play great defense at that position. What we don't have, clearly, is anybody to play above average defense in the outfield. This is what bothers me more than anything especially considering the names just floating around out there.The Man With The Golden Armhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11193601268748890956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-13134951343330138732010-02-03T14:19:54.932-05:002010-02-03T14:19:54.932-05:00The most proven pitcher we have is Marcum and he o...The most proven pitcher we have is Marcum and he only played 1.5seasons so all the starters numbers don't mean much yet. They need to be given a couple years in the bigs to really get a good idea of how they are going to pitch. One of the downfalls about trading Rios was that we lost our best defensive outfielder. It seems like we went from too many outfielders to not enough outfielders by ditching Rios.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-85962304233006285052010-02-03T14:13:45.955-05:002010-02-03T14:13:45.955-05:00I actually just looked at the 2009 stats, since it...I actually just looked at the 2009 stats, since it seemed fitting with the snapshot analysis (and I'm pretty lazy). But factor in that about 25% of the time they're going to give up a hit (which by and large are on balls that even the best outfield couldn't get to) and the % of fly balls that are either infield pop-ups or routine fly balls, and I'd imagine that a very small number of potential outs would be lost as a result of sub-standard outfielding. Routine ground balls are significantly harder to convert than routine fly balls... add in the potential for a double-play, and I don't really think there should be any question that improving infield defense should be a priority over the outfield. SS seems like the obvious place to improve the Jays defense, as anyone playing there isn't immediately blocking someone in the Jays system - the same cannot be said, however, for bringing in a defensive outfielder.<br /><br />Either way, I love reading your blog, and think it's important to bring up these kind of discussions (ok, not important... but interesting!)Hillerajnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-16783182428942174122010-02-03T13:49:01.003-05:002010-02-03T13:49:01.003-05:00Thanks for the comments.
I obviously looked for th...Thanks for the comments.<br />I obviously looked for the MLB average when researching this post. I couldn't find anything but if I had to guess it would be around 48%-45% if you included relievers. Most of our guys were either hurt or in their first year of pitching in the majors hence their sample size in very small. How much sense does it make comparing half a season of Ray to a ten plus years of Lowe or Carpenter equally.<br />The point of the post was to show that our rotation will give up more than it's share of fly balls this year. Even Rzep and his near 50% ground ball rate means the other half is going up in the air. But I understand what you are saying about context. In this specific example without a median average the stats must speak for themselves.<br />I will update Litsch.<br />Thanks again for stopping by.The Man With The Golden Armhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11193601268748890956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1010722690692900108.post-47197193442576386172010-02-03T12:04:43.713-05:002010-02-03T12:04:43.713-05:00Usually when you try to use stats to prove somethi...Usually when you try to use stats to prove something, it's a good idea to add some context. Now, you must be at least somewhat familiar with the idea, since you mentioned Romero's ranking (it being an AMAZING 6th place overall in his rookie year). But then you kinda go silent on the matter... Rzep at 51.2% would have placed 12th, had he pitched enough to qualify. Ray would be 16th overall, one spot behind the Good Doctor himself. Marcum and McGowan (the 2008 version) are 41st (tied) and 52nd, respectively. That's 4 of 5 in the top 50, and one more on the fringe. You have Litsch at 34.4%, but I'm not sure why you chose to use the year he pitched 9 innings, as opposed to the two previous seasons, where he put up 48.5% and 48.1% over a combined 287 IP. Oh look, Cecil also would have ranked in the top 50! I think it would probably be a good idea to understand how these numbers actually stack up to Major League competition, instead of just listing them in a (somewhat) descending order, and claiming that the sky is falling.<br /><br />Now, granted some of these guys haven't proven they can consistently put up these kind of numbers... but that's exactly why it's important to include context in your analysis. Otherwise, your gold-glove laden outfield would end up picking up a lot of ground balls that really should have been outs...Hillerajnoreply@blogger.com